McKinley Lives: what's Teddy's fate?

If McKinley survives, will T.R be nominated in 1904?

  • Yes, Roosevelt gets the 1904 nomination

    Votes: 9 18.8%
  • No, but Roosevelt is nominated in the future

    Votes: 16 33.3%
  • No, Roosevelt never gets the nomination

    Votes: 21 43.8%
  • No, Roosevelt doesn't bother trying to be president

    Votes: 2 4.2%
  • McKinley surprises everyone with being nominated for a third time

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    48
Theodore Roosevelt becoming president was unlikely in hindsight. It needed Garret Hobart to die, then McKinley himself. Let's assume that everything is the same up until 1901 where William McKinley isn't assassinated. Do you think Teddy will manage to become nominated on his own without his accidental president, and how? If not, who do you think would get the nomination instead?
 
Too many in the Republican party leadership disliked Roosevelt and his populist/progressive ideas. It would require a ground swell of progressive/populist sentiment in the lower and middle ranks of the party to set aside the opponents of Roosevelt. I just cant see that happening.
 
Too many in the Republican party leadership disliked Roosevelt and his populist/progressive ideas. It would require a ground swell of progressive/populist sentiment in the lower and middle ranks of the party to set aside the opponents of Roosevelt. I just cant see that happening.

I agree here. Roosevelt was only able to get the 1904 nomination because as President he was in control of the party machinery, in addition to the fact that once Mark Hanna died the conservatives didn't have anyone powerful enough to seriously challenge TR. Once he was out of office, he couldn't get the nomination even as he was a widely popular former President running against an unpopular incumbent. He beat Taft in the primaries, but simply couldn't muster enough support from the GOP establishment to win in 1912. If TR couldn't do it as a popular former President he wouldn't be able to do it as VP at a time when that position was basically powerless. Not to mention that McKinley could end up becoming rather unpopular by 1904 depending on his handling of the goal strike and trusts, so even if TR were to win the nomination he could lose the general election.
 
Roosevelt is still a young man in 1904. He is a leader of the Progressive wing of the party. He is the logical candidate after any GOP loss.
 
The big question is an other: what if Teddy wins primaries (in 1908 or later presumably) but is passed over at the Convention as in HL? He could bolt and form a third party with progressive wing of Republican Party. So I can see:

1904
Senator Charles Warren Fairbanks (R-Indiana)/ Representative Robert Roberts Rhitt (R-Illinois) vs Judge Alton Brooks Parker (D-New York)/ Senator Francis Cockrell (D-Missouri)

1908
President Charles Warren Fairbanks (R-Indiana)/ Governor Curtis Guild Jr (R-Massachusetts) vs Former Representative William Jennings Bryan (D-Nebraska)/ John Worth Kern (D-Indiana) vs Theodore Roosevelt (Pr-New York)/ Senator Robert Marion La Follette Sr (Pr-Wisconsin)

1912
President William Jennings Bryan (D-Nebraska)/ Governor John Thomas Riley Marshall (D-Indiana) vs Former War Secretary William Howard Taft (R-Ohio)/ Senator Albert Baird Cummins (R-Iowa)

1916
President William Howard Taft (R-Ohio)/ Vice-President Albert Baird Cummins (R-Iowa) vs Former Vice-President Thomas Riley Marshall (D-Indiana)/ Governor William Randolph Hearst (D-New York) vs Senator Theodore Roosevelt (Pr-New York)/ General Leonard Wood (Pr-New Hampshire)

1920
President Thomas Riley Marshall (D-Indiana)/ Vice-President William Randolph Hearst (D-New York) vs Governor Frank Orren Lowden (R-Illinois)/ Senator Warren Gamael Harding (R-Ohio) vs Senator Theodore Roosevelt (Pr-New York)/ General Leonard Wood (Pr-New Hampshire)

1924
President William Randolph Hearst (D-New York)/ Labor Union Leader George Leonard Berry (D-Tennessee) vs Senator Hiram Johnson (R-California)/ Former Governor Calvin Coolidge (R-Massachusetts)
 
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