McKinley lives, what happens in 1904?

Had McKinley not been assassinated in September 1901, who would have succeeded him as President?

Roosevelt might well have run, but the only incumbent VP to receive his party's presidential nomination had been van Buren in 1836. van Buren had received the strong backing of Andrew Jackson, but its unlikely Roosevelt would have obtained such an endorsement from McKinley (who would likely have been a popular and influential President in 1904).

With a booming economy and a nation at peace the GOP would almost certainly have retained the White House in 1904 no matter who the candidate was. But who would that be?
 

Driftless

Donor
Elihu Root maybe? I don't think he had the interest in the Presidency, but he might be pushed forward as a compromise candidate. TR & Lodge might have been too hot for parts of the Republican party. Root certainly would have had the skills for the job in the emerging empire.
 
I suspect it would have been Charles Fairbanks, Roosevelt’s VP OTL and the Republican VP candidate in 1916, actually. Mark Hanna - McKinley’s financier/campaign manager/friend - would have been frontrunner, but he died in early 1904. Fairbanks was quite close to McKinley, held similar views, and had advised him during the war with Spain. He was also a Senator from Indiana, a key Midwestern state.

As for Roosevelt, I find it likely he’d run for Governor of New York and certainly make bids (though likely without success) for the White House.
 
McKinley's own choice for a successor is said to be Charles Fairbanks. He would certainly be a "safe" choice; a friend of McKinley's, popular with Republican senators, a conservative who was not too offensive to more progressive Republicans.

"When William McKinley ran for president in 1896, he made his friend Fairbanks a key player in his campaign strategy. Fairbanks ran McKinley's campaign in Indiana and delivered a united Hoosier delegation for McKinley at thwepublican National Convention in St. Louis. As temporary chairman of that convention, Fairbanks uncharacteristically delivered a stirring keynote address, in which he lambasted the Democrats and advocated the gold standard for currency.9 McKinley won the Republican nomination handily, then defeated Democrat William Jennings Bryan in the general election. Indiana, which he won by only about 18,000 votes, proved instrumental to his victory.10

"On the state level, the Republicans also did well enough to regain control of the Indiana legislature, guaranteeing that they would determine that body's choice of a United States senator. Speculation naturally turned to Charles Fairbanks. The wealthy lawyer had assisted many of the Republican legislators during their campaigns; now they could return the favor. With a little help from President McKinley, Fairbanks easily won election to his first political office...

"Fairbanks' Senate career proved competent if unspectacular. He stuck to the party line and was well respected among his colleagues. As chairman of the Immigration Committee, he favored restricting immigration and requiring a literacy test before entry into the United States—both popular positions. When the Immigration Committee proved too contentious for his liking, Fairbanks moved to the chairmanship of the more agreeable Committee on Public Buildings and Grounds. Although he had originally opposed the pressure for war with Spain in 1898, he faithfully followed President McKinley's lead when war came. The president appointed him to the Joint-High Commission to decide the U.S.-Canadian boundary in Alaska. No settlement was reached, but Fairbanks helped his own popularity by declaring, "I am opposed to the yielding of an inch of United States territory." The people of Alaska showed their appreciation by naming the city of Fairbanks in his honor. Perhaps Fairbanks' only controversial stand in the Senate was his support for the demands of black soldiers fighting in Cuba that they be commanded by black officers. Thanks to the senator's intervention, Indiana became the first state to accept this position as general policy for its militia units.12

"Fairbanks' calm demeanor and "safe" Republican views made him very popular in the Senate. As a senator from a pivotal state and a consistent defender of the McKinley administration, Fairbanks emerged as a natural successor to McKinley. He certainly looked like a president: tall (approximately six feet, four inches), dignified, always clad in a proper Prince Albert coat.13 In 1900 some conservatives, most notably Ohio Senator Mark Hanna, tried to maneuver Fairbanks into a vice-presidential nomination.14 The conservative attempt to block the nomination of New York Governor Theodore Roosevelt ended in failure, but the mention of Fairbanks for vice president fueled the senator's already growing ambition. The Indianan turned down Hanna's offer for practical reasons and because he had set his sights higher. As one journalist put it, "[Fairbanks] had dreams of the White House. He preferred to remain in the Senate until the real call came."15

"Charles Fairbanks' political fortunes changed dramatically on September 6, 1901, when President McKinley was assassinated while visiting the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo. He lost not only a friend, but also a political patron. Although McKinley's successor, Theodore Roosevelt, promised to continue the fallen president's policies, Fairbanks' close connection to the White House was severed..."

 
What kind of president would Charles Fairbanks have been in this timeline? Would he win, and if so would the Dems win in 1908 or does Fairbanks get a second term?
 
Perhaps Fairbanks' only controversial stand in the Senate was his support for the demands of black soldiers fighting in Cuba that they be commanded by black officers
As Commander in Chief could he just order that black units be commanded by black officers?

That probable means needing more educated black officers, and even if the units stay in support roles that'll be an impact.
 
What kind of president would Charles Fairbanks have been in this timeline? Would he win, and if so would the Dems win in 1908 or does Fairbanks get a second term?
Well it would sertenly be a lot closer then OTL sense I doubt he would be popular whith the progressive vote which is wate caused teddy's landslide in 1904.
 
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