McKinley lives - outcomes?

So if William McKinley isn't assassinated in 1901 and finishes his second term, what are the effects of this?

Specific questions:

  • How does this affect the Venezuelan Crisis in 1903 and the US acquisition of the Panama Canal?
  • Is TR running for president in 1904 plausible, or is '08 or '12 more likely?
  • Who is most likely to be on the Democratic/Republican tickets for 1904?
  • Will it make a difference in the Russo-Japanese war that the US won't be a mediator?
  • How will the economy be affected without the crackdown on trusts as seen in OTL?
 
Most likely no Roosevelt presidency. The GOP would be unlikely to nominate him, and without a successful presidency, he is unlikely to get support for a third party like he did in 1912 OTL.
 

bguy

Donor
How does this affect the Venezuelan Crisis in 1903 and the US acquisition of the Panama Canal?

I doubt McKinley gets involved in the Venezuelan Crisis.

As for a Central American canal, McKinley wanted one (his OTL administration did the heavy lifting with the British in order to get the US out of the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty), so the canal probably still happens though IIRC McKinley favored the Nicaraguan route, so we might end up with the Nicaragua Canal instead.

Is TR running for president in 1904 plausible, or is '08 or '12 more likely?

I doubt TR can win the Republican nomination if he's not already President. At a minimum he probably needs a Democrat to get elected first to make Republicans believe they have to tack left to win back the White House, and I can't see the Democrats having a chance in 1904, so 1912 is probably the absolute earliest TR could make a plausible presidential run. The problem is he's probably old news by 1912 unless he gets a prominent Cabinet post with whoever follows McKinley (possible) or unless he can get into the Senate (which could be difficult since I don't see the New York party bosses selecting TR as a Senator.)

How will the economy be affected without the crackdown on trusts as seen in OTL?


McKinley was showing signs that he might move against the trusts OTL. The Republican 1900 platform condemned trusts, and Mark Hanna even warned the Northern Securities Company that McKinley might have to move against them, so odds are some anti-trust action still happens.

Not sure about the other issues you raised. Hopefully someone else has some ideas.
 
As for a Central American canal, McKinley wanted one (his OTL administration did the heavy lifting with the British in order to get the US out of the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty), so the canal probably still happens though IIRC McKinley favored the Nicaraguan route, so we might end up with the Nicaragua Canal instead.
Would McKinley get involved in helping the Panamanian rebels to secede from Colombia to gain control of the canal zone? If not, a Nicaraguan route would be the way to go, but what would McKinley do for it? Maybe building a canal would fall to a later president or a European country.

As for the Venezuelan Crisis, will this turn into a war without US intervention?
 
Big business men like J.P. Morgan, John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie continue to dominate the nation's economy. TR unlikely to get elected on his own, at least on the Republican ticket; remember he was nominated as vice-president because the party bosses, i.e. Mark Hanna, wanted to put him in a position where he couldn't make waves.
 
Teddy was stuck in the vice presidency in the first place to get him out of the way. It was a stroke of fate that the man they wanted marginalized and neutralized became the president of the United States. What that means is, it will be difficult to get Roosevelt to the nomination in his era of party bosses. At least in '04. Maybe you could make an argument for him going back to elected office elsewhere and managing to win heavy populist support to force his nomination in 1908, 1912 or at some later election.
 
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