alternatehistory.com

In 2008, John McCain choses to go with the more experienced Tim Pawlenty as his running mate, deciding against picking Sarah Palin. In November 2008, McCain/Pawlenty loses to Obama/Biden.

Fast forward to 2012 and Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee is considering who his running mate should be. Fearing that the lack of enthusiasm about him amongst the Religious Right, along with his deficit amongst female voters, will lead to his defeat in November, Romney chooses the relatively unknown Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (who is in her second term as governor, having been re-elected in 2010), in the hope that Palin will increase turnout amongst social conservatives and get more women to vote for him.

Is this a likely scenario? Would Palin's Vice Presidential campaign in 2012 have been less disastrous than that in OTL's 2008, due to her having 4 years more experience as governor? Or would Romney be more cautious in picking his running mate than McCain had been OTL? Could Romney/Palin win in November 2012 against Obama in this scenario?
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