McCain/Pawlenty 2008 => Romney/Palin 2012?

In 2008, John McCain choses to go with the more experienced Tim Pawlenty as his running mate, deciding against picking Sarah Palin. In November 2008, McCain/Pawlenty loses to Obama/Biden.

Fast forward to 2012 and Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee is considering who his running mate should be. Fearing that the lack of enthusiasm about him amongst the Religious Right, along with his deficit amongst female voters, will lead to his defeat in November, Romney chooses the relatively unknown Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (who is in her second term as governor, having been re-elected in 2010), in the hope that Palin will increase turnout amongst social conservatives and get more women to vote for him.

Is this a likely scenario? Would Palin's Vice Presidential campaign in 2012 have been less disastrous than that in OTL's 2008, due to her having 4 years more experience as governor? Or would Romney be more cautious in picking his running mate than McCain had been OTL? Could Romney/Palin win in November 2012 against Obama in this scenario?
 
After the Branchflower Inquiry finding that Palin abused her power, and with her popularity declining in Alaska, I think she would not get reelected, though I am not sure if she would be impeached, recalled, resign or even get primaried. I do think it should remove her from consideration.
 
Couple results would be McCain getting his butt handed to him by an even bigger margin. Palin energized the base far more than T-Paw could ever dream of doing. So you wouldn't see Pawlenty even thinking of getting back into the race, which could mean either someone else takes his place at the bottom or Bachmann and/or Cain gain a bit more of an ealier push, possibly even making it harder for Romney to even get the nomination, and cutting off Santorum's support (Cuz lets face it, Santorum is a moron and showed he wasn't Presidential material long before the primaries started.)
 
Is this a likely scenario? NO

Would Palin's Vice Presidential campaign in 2012 have been less disastrous than that in OTL's 2008, due to her having 4 years more experience as governor? NO

Or would Romney be more cautious in picking his running mate than McCain had been OTL? NO

Could Romney/Palin win in November 2012 against Obama in this scenario? Irrelevant, because a Romney/Palin ticket is extremely unlikely.
 
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Could Romney/Palin win in November 2012 against Obama in this scenario? Irrelevant, because a Romney/Palin ticket is extremely unlikely.

are you saying it would be unlikely in this case or unlikely right now? Right now, I agree, Palin wouldn't go second-fiddle again.
 
are you saying it would be unlikely in this case or unlikely right now? Right now, I agree, Palin wouldn't go second-fiddle again.

What I'm saying is that Romney having the exact same brain fart in TTL 2012 that McCain had in OTL 2008 is extremely unlikely. Now, TTL's Romney may indeed make a boneheaded VP choice, but the person chosen is probably not going to be Palin.
 
What I'm saying is that Romney having the exact same brain fart in TTL 2012 that McCain had in OTL 2008 is extremely unlikely. Now, TTL's Romney may indeed make a boneheaded VP choice, but the person chosen is probably not going to be Palin.

The boost that Palin gave McCain wasn't a brain fart. McCain's loss had more to do with his inability to attack Obama and use Obama's stances (or lack there of in both IL Senate and US Senate) against him, as he was trying to go the "gentleman" route.

I do agree that Palin may not be chosen in TTL anyway, but not for her supposed air-headedness that many think she has. His choices are probably pretty similar to what he has now, meaning Rubio, Paul Ryan, Alan West, and several others.

Though without Palin the TEA Party movement may not get as big as fast (and by extension the Occupy movement), nor the 2010 elections be as big of a swing away from Dems as OTL.
 
I personally think Palin would perform better with a second term of governor. And her approvals in Alaska didn't fall until after she resigned, troopergate didn't have a major impact in her approvals. A Romney/Pail ticket in this scenario would fair pretty well, I honestly think Palin would perform a little better. Also, with the fear of being seen as too elite Romney would never let a $150,000 clothes bill get tacked to Palin. Ultimately Palin could emerge only slightly damaged and perhaps be a 2016 front runner - I know no one else agrees though
 
I personally think Palin would perform better with a second term of governor. And her approvals in Alaska didn't fall until after she resigned, troopergate didn't have a major impact in her approvals. A Romney/Pail ticket in this scenario would fair pretty well, I honestly think Palin would perform a little better. Also, with the fear of being seen as too elite Romney would never let a $150,000 clothes bill get tacked to Palin. Ultimately Palin could emerge only slightly damaged and perhaps be a 2016 front runner - I know no one else agrees though

you aren't the only conservative here :D
 
I personally think Palin would perform better with a second term of governor. And her approvals in Alaska didn't fall until after she resigned, troopergate didn't have a major impact in her approvals. A Romney/Pail ticket in this scenario would fair pretty well, I honestly think Palin would perform a little better. Also, with the fear of being seen as too elite Romney would never let a $150,000 clothes bill get tacked to Palin. Ultimately Palin could emerge only slightly damaged and perhaps be a 2016 front runner - I know no one else agrees though

I will actually disagree that Palin couldn't be the 2016 frontrunner.

With two "successful" terms as governor, and a HELL of alot more debating practice, she could potentially be the GOP frontrunner.

However presuming Obama wins in 2012, the moderates in the party are going to be discredited because Romney will be seen as another Bob Dole.

With Romney losing in 2012, the field will have presumably Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, and perhaps Jeb Bush.

Presuming Palin runs, she will have to unite the social conservatives around her. That means Santorum, and Perry will have to be taken out early. Or they could decide not to run.

With Palin as the conservative candidate, she will have to spar with the remaining moderates. With 3-4 moderates dividing the field, that could create a "Thompson Effect." (Fred Thompson divided conservatives in South Carolina in 2008, and gave McCain victory by 3 points.)

The base would be united around Palin, and her opposition would be divided. The key is to get the momentum on her side with several victories.

But the problem is that the establishment isn't stupid, so there will eventually be a "stop Palin" movement if she racks up several victories.

Palin could potentially become the nominee, but it would be a hard, and bitter race.

Wishing you well, his majesty,
The Scandinavian Emperor
 
She'd have to get reelected as governor first, and I think she was pretty vulnerable to either a serious primary opponent or a Rightwing 3rd party challenger in the 2010 general.

The scandals aren't the shortterm problem for a Sarah Palin who sits out the 2008 presidential election, the problem is (a.) the Alaskan Republican party establishment were growing sick of her inattention to policy (and to them), and (b.) her entire practical experience as a Tea Party powerbroker in her homestate was in backing the hapless Joe Miller. Her original rise to power in 2006 owed a lot to Frank Murkowski's massive self-inflicted wound from when he appointed his daughter to replace him in the senate. She won't have that in 2010.

I give her a fifty/fifty shot of going the way of Dan Maes in Colorado; a hard Right candidate who loses because of lack of support from either establishment or insurgent Republicans.

her approvals in Alaska didn't fall until after she resigned, troopergate didn't have a major impact in her approvals.

She was down to 54% as governor when she resigned. That's borderline defeat territory for any US gubernatorial reelection effort.

I also suspect those are particularly dangerous numbers for governors of thinly populated states. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if governors or US senators are rarely if ever reelected in tiny states once they bottom out like that (which is why I think Jon Tester in Montana won't win unless he hits every base in his reelection campaign this fall.)

Of course incumbent Governor Palin's downward polling trendline may have been the result of her disastrous VP campaign, but one can only really believe that thesis if one thinks she actually did do badly as a national candidate. Which tends to make the claims of "she only needed more time to prepare, that's all she ever needed!" seem, well, optimistic...
 
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