McCain-Pawlenty 2008, Palin 2012

One of the (many) issues of Sarah Palin OTL was that she was rolled out too early. She was an inexperienced first-term governor from a state that's isolated from the issues of the rest of the country.

She's criticized a bit too much for being dumb (I'd say unknowledgeable and opportunistically populist culturally is more accurate) and had she not gotten all the attention from 2008 could have been a strong 2012 contender. The OTL Alaska Public Safety Commission scandal is referred to as denting her popularity, but her approvals were pretty consistent and positive throughout her governorship and only declined after she resigned.

With an extra 4 years of governing I think she'd be be a lot more polished/knowledgeable too.

As for her running mate, I'm thinking it'd be somebody leadership/establishment types would be happy with who'd have decent DC ties, experience, and perhaps FP chops. Of the OTL 2012 candidates and VP-list members, there's Romney, Ryan, Huntsman, Cornyn, Frist, Daniels, and Portman who possibly fit the bill. Portman seems like the most balancing of them all, though Huntsman might work as well.
 
Obama would beat her pretty easily. In fact having someone like Palin at the top of the GOP ticket could help Democrats make greater gains in House elections.
 
She doesn’t get the nomination in 2012. It was just Romney’s year, and if she does then she looses against Obama.
 
Palin has no polish and no social standing among DC or anyone besides GOP insiders. That’s a huge double-edged sword. The most blatant example of that was when she walked out to center stage for the VP debate and shook her opponent’s hand and her first words were “Can I call you Joe?” A clear indicator she had never met or spoken to her opponent and likely knew little to nothing about him.

Obama, by contrast, was inexperienced but very confident and polished. He saw the much more experienced McCain as a colleague and treated him as such during the debates, often addressing his opponent as “John” throughout as if to say he belonged there. Palin didn’t carry the same confidence, and four extra years running Alaska isn’t going to get her any closer to it.

The way to get Palin to be President, barring McCain winning in ‘08 and falling over dead, is to put her in the Senate or the Cabinet. If McCain picks Pawlenty but nominates Palin as Secretary of State, she impresses, McCain doesn’t run again for, let’s say, health reasons, and Palin gets the nod and actually acts like she belongs.
 
Palin had no national ambitions, AFAIK, and wouldn't have the real background for them until at least 2016, IMO.

Also, as governor of a very small state (in population) she would lack the fund-raising base for a national run. She really only became a national figure by her selection as McCain's running mate.
 
The way to get Palin to be President, barring McCain winning in ‘08 and falling over dead, is to put her in the Senate or the Cabinet. If McCain picks Pawlenty but nominates Palin as Secretary of State, she impresses, McCain doesn’t run again for, let’s say, health reasons, and Palin gets the nod and actually acts like she belongs.

Palin as Sec of State??? She's had to deal with Canada and Russia, but otherwise she's almost completely unsuited. She could do it, IMO, but I really doubt anybody would think so beforehand - even her.
 
Within a Republican Cabinet, Palin would be better suited as either Secretary of the Interior or Secretary of Energy. She governed a large Western state with abundant natural resources - especially oil and gas - and extensive wilderness and coastlines. On paper, she would be qualified for those positions. Her tenure in either position would be disastrous for the natural environment - Palin as Interior Sec. would scale back regulations and probably open up more protected lands for logging, mining, oil/gas drilling, and other commercial activities; Palin as Energy Sec. would aggressively pursue more extensive exploration and extraction of fossil fuels.

Anyway, if Palin was the GOP nominee in 2012, then Rob Portman would be the best choice for VP. He has experience in both houses of Congress (albeit less than two years in the Senate by 2012) and in the executive branch (having served as Trade Representative and OMB Director under George W. Bush). He represents the swing state of Ohio, and he has no personal controversies. Mitch Daniels, the Governor of Indiana, could also be an effective running mate due to his fiscally conservative, yet socially moderate record, and as a Midwestern governor he could help out the GOP ticket's performance in the region. But regardless of her VP choice, Palin would be doomed to lose to Obama unless Obama's chances are hurt by something disastrous like another economic downturn.
 
The way to get Palin to be President, barring McCain winning in ‘08 and falling over dead, is to put her in the Senate or the Cabinet. If McCain picks Pawlenty but nominates Palin as Secretary of State, she impresses, McCain doesn’t run again for, let’s say, health reasons, and Palin gets the nod and actually acts like she belongs.

First of all, regardless of who McCain picks as his running mate, he is not going to win unless the economy in late 2008 is very different from what it was in OTL. Second, if he somehow does win, he is not going to give the Secretary of State position to someone with no foreign policy experience. If she gets in his Cabinet, it will be as something like Secretary of the Interior, not a very promising launching pad for the presidency.
 
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