McCain goes Libertarian in 2002.

In 2002, most people believe that John McCain considered becoming a democrat, but I really dont get that. No matter what the Far Right thinks of him, McCain is still Conservative on most issues.

But what if in 2002, McCain becomes a registered Libertarian. Why?
McCain and the LP share most issues on economics.
McCain and the LP agree on social issues like gay marriage- leave it to the states.
The only real issue the LP and McCain disagree on is the war in Iraq, where McCain wants to finish the job.
And if Lieberman can get reelected in CT, McCain the Libertarian can most certainly get reelected in Arizona IMO.

So the Libertarians gain their first real "Washington Politician", does the LP evolve into a more National party? Would a few "McCain" Republicans like Giuliani, Ridge, and Powell join him?

And how does the GOP and the Dems react to this?
 

Hyperion

Banned
This could have some interesting ramifications.

While McCain may be affiliated with a third party with no serious muscle in DC, I don't see him changing a lot of his beliefs and opinions. If anything, not having to worry about toting the party line of the GOP would help him out considerably.

Given his record in the Senate and House, and using cases such as Joe Lieberman, the one guy from Vermont back in 2001(?) and recently Arlen Specter, I think that while he might loose some supporters by switching parties, I think it would stand a reasonable chance of winning any reelections.

The big issue I think would be on his political career beyond the Senate. If he does launch a presidential bid and still totes the Libertarian line, what could this do for the 04 and 08 campaigns? Even though he probably wouldn't win, he would probably stand a much better chance than a lot of the other third party candidates over the past few years.

Alternatively, by having him in the Senate, and assuming a Republican or even Democratic challenger doesn't kick him out, I wonder if he might have any influence on some other Senate and House races where the only major third party contender was a Libertarian. I don't see a flood of them showing up in DC, but he might be able to swing a couple of house seats.
 
McCain might actually be more Libertarian than we might think. He tacked to the right to win the GOP nomination last year, but a Senator John McCain without the religious right chained around his leg might be a totally different man than we saw this election year.
 
McCain was reelected with 76% of the vote in 2004. So i say hed easily be reelected as a Libertarian as well.
And McCain leaving would mean the Senate Balance would be until the 2002 elections:
49 Republicans
49 Democrats
1 Libertarian
1 Bernie Sanders
Does anybody have any predictions on what could happen? Anybody?
 
If he was going to leave the GOP, I think he would have followed the Jim Jeffords route and become an independent. He may broadly agree with the Libertarian Party (I don't know enough about them to say) but they don't really have much to offer him. Especially since I think having the word INDEPENDENT next to his name in every news article would be exactly the sort of thing that he would have wanted in the situation.

Additionally, while McCain would certainly be the biggest name in the Libertarian party by leaps and bounds, he wouldn't be the only one who got to determine its policy, and I don't think the LP types are the folks who would just defer to McCain on issue after issue. So there's a lot of potential for embarrassment for the Senator - if his party adopts a stronger stance on drug reform, say.
 

Raymann

Banned
I used to work for a non-profit in DC that had a lot of connections with McCain and his campaign so I have a good deal of familiarity with the man and his positions. I also know Tibor Machan and Bob Poole who founded Reason from back in the day. They both really show distain for conservative views except for some conservatives economic views (and only in that they're just moving in the right direction)

Now I'm nominally a Republican (heh, how many black Republicans do you know :) ) but for the first time ever I voted Libertarian even though I can't stand their foreign policy and its because, like many other Republicans, I viewed McCain as being too far to the left.

McCain runined his chances with libertarians and many conservatives with his action like the Gang of 14 and the McCain-Feingold Bill. Simply put, McCain is too liberal for conservatives much less economic libertarians and civil libertarians would perfer a Democrat anyway.
 
McCain was reelected with 76% of the vote in 2004. So i say hed easily be reelected as a Libertarian as well.
And McCain leaving would mean the Senate Balance would be until the 2002 elections:
49 Republicans
49 Democrats
1 Libertarian
1 Bernie Sanders
Does anybody have any predictions on what could happen? Anybody?

Bernie Sanders caucuses with the Democrats.
 
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