This doesn't preclude that
It just means that Mandelson and Brown don't want another election ...
So hint hint..it might be forced?
Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing
- Thread starter AndyC
- Start date
So hint hint..it might be forced?
AndyC
Donor
Oh, so many things might or might not happen ...
Thanks
He's also fun to write, as well. It's scarily easy to put myself into his mindset.
This doesn't preclude that
It just means that Mandelson and Brown don't want another election ...
Well now I am excited.
Hmm, Woolas reminds me that there were a few by-elections coming up over 2011. Most are insignificant - Old and Sad becomes more difficult for Labour and Sir Peter Soulsby may not be allowed to stand as elected mayor of Leicester. The rest are unavoidable, I suspect. There's not much out there in 2011 for the Yellow Peril or the Kippers.
So unless the Labour party wants to commit suicide, I suspect they should be able to hold on.
So unless the Labour party wants to commit suicide, I suspect they should be able to hold on.
Depends on if those seats were severely affected in this timeline as well but I can't quite recall on that.
IIRC it was not long after this that the Eurozone crisis really started to head into deeply scary territory, wasn't it? Given Brown's OTL enthusiasm for posing as the hero of events by spending vast quantities of other people's money, just how much is he going to put us in for?
AndyC
Donor
Much as per the Prince of Darkness's logic (well, he doesn't know what's coming, but he does intend to ensure Labour avoid any avoidable by-elections.
Many thanks for the compliment
I don't have any first-hand knowledge of the characters - it's all off of media, autobiographies, biographies, and, in some cases, second-hand knowledge.
Good question ...IIRC it was not long after this that the Eurozone crisis really started to head into deeply scary territory, wasn't it? Given Brown's OTL enthusiasm for posing as the hero of events by spending vast quantities of other people's money, just how much is he going to put us in for?
He knows he can avoid Leicester South. He knows he probably can't avoid Barnsley Central ( but that's not a worry). He knows Old and Sad may happen and it will be a problem. He may have an inkling about Inverclyde. However, he's lucky, there's no real problems there. His problems start with the 2011 locals where there won't be the big swing to Labour, he might get a small swing though - 2007 wasn't a good year. But the LibDems won't be facing a wipe out in the Northern Mets.
Thande
Donor
Glad to see this continuing.
I should imagine modelling early 2011 will become tricky due to 'what political news stories take the place of the AV referendum'. On the same subject, I presume Brown did not dangle the AV bait in front of the Lib Dems just prior to the 2010 election in TTL?
I should imagine modelling early 2011 will become tricky due to 'what political news stories take the place of the AV referendum'. On the same subject, I presume Brown did not dangle the AV bait in front of the Lib Dems just prior to the 2010 election in TTL?
AndyC
Donor
I'm sure I can come up with enough on the political news front ... (then again, there will be enough 'real news' to cope with in any case).
Brown didn't feel the need to go any further on AV in TTL than repeating the Labour manifesto commitment of an AV referendum.
AndyC
Donor
Lib Dem HQ. Late October 2010.
Cable, Clegg, Huhne, Davey, Hughes and Alexander
Vince Cable pushed his chair back and rubbed his eyes. “Well, as Budgets go, this one hasn’t got much to get my teeth into. The EMA thing will obviously play well for us …”
“Yeah – what did Balls think was going to happen? Two years warning of abolition won’t help them at all – it’ll just keep it in the news longer”, said Hughes.
“Never mind that. It’s a gift, we’ll take it”, said Huhne. “Anything else, Vince?”
“ … hmm, pay freeze extended for another year. Cuts in manpower – I guess Balls won a fight or two with Brown over that”, muttered Cable.
“Could be a sign that Brown’s hold on power is weakening?”, suggested Clegg.
“Could be. Looks better for Balls than Milliband right now if so – the aid worker thing has played badly for Bananaman”, said Huhne. “Not that there was much different he could have done for the poor woman, but it does add to a general air of incompetence around the Foreign Office”
“… slight increase in transport spending – that’s good, actually. Another windfall tax on the banks – he’s really passed the point of diminishing returns here and he knows it, but it’s got to fund the transport spending as well as the VAT cut for home improvements. A promise of a cut in corporation tax, but the National Insurance holiday for small firms will probably do more than that. No full VAT cut, so our mole was wrong there”
“What’s the upshot, Vince?” asked Evan Harris.
“Mainly tinkering around the edges. He really needed to cut current spending by more than that, to be honest. The deficit will remain pretty bloody huge. Frozen income tax allowances won’t go down well, despite the uprating of Tax Credits, and could cut off the benefits of the rest of the package. To be honest, I think he missed another opportunity. He needs to get to grips with the current spending, and he hasn’t. As for the pension system – if they don’t do something major bloody soon, it’ll be too late. The big news is punting the Comprehensive Spending Review into Spring – he’s obviously decided that having been downgraded anyway and with the borrowing rates resilience, he can take a chance on that ”
“Well,”, said Huhne. “He’s given us a flying start in the student constituencies again, and it’s starting to look more like Balls to succeed his master. The Tories are already spreading money around against UKIP, but it doesn’t seem to be getting much traction yet. Rumours have it that Congdon is looking for a fresh suite of candidates from their new intake of activists since the election, to try to spike the ‘nutters and fruitcakes’ line”
“Bugger”, said Ed Davey. “The novices and incompetents they’ve had in UKIP were the best thing we’ve had going for us. Martin, Steve and Annette are getting downright worried about the threat in the South West. Stephen, Dan and Andrew are almost resigned to losing next time because of UKIP. And their ground organisation is getting noticeably better – the defectors from the Tories and from us is helping them. We’ve lost fifteen councillors in the South-West alone. The only consolation is that the Tories are even worse hit”
Huhne shook his head. “Not much I can do about that, though. We’ll just have to fight each constituency as hard as we can and see what happens”. He turned to Clegg. “Any news on Old and Sad?”
“Not yet. The special election court sits in a couple of weeks – looks like an open and shut case to me.”
“Good. Elwyn was how many votes behind last time? Couple of hundred, wasn’t it?”, asked Huhne.
“Three hundred and seventy – er – one”, replied Clegg, consulting his notes. “We should have a damn good shot at it. Put Elwyn up again?”
“Yes. We can run more on the ‘unfairness’ theme, that he should have been elected last time”.
“Can we get anything on the unfairness of EMA cuts into that new newspaper from the Indie? Should be fairly sympathetic to us.” asked Harris.
“Good idea. See if we can get a regular column in it”, Huhne looked back down at his notes, the figures on one sheet catching his eye. “Could help out for the campaign warchest actually – God knows we need the funds”.
“Polls don’t look too good – but not too bad, either. Looks like Brown was right not to cut and run. Lots of sympathy for Cameron over his Dad”, said Hughes.
“Any useful info from Mark Pack and his geeks?”, asked Clegg.
“Not much. Tories into the thirties. Labour becalmed in the mid-twenties. We’re definitely ahead of UKIP, but down on the election result by a point or so. Apparently, though, this is covering a lot of churn under the waves, so it’s hard to tell what the outcome will be. It’s very different region by region and demographic by demographic”, said Harris. “One thing’s for sure – he expects more than three UKIP MPs next time”
The silence that greeted his statement stretched on. Eventually, Clegg said “Well, so they’re here to stay, then. We’re just going to have to deal with it. And try to make sure it’s more of a problem for the Tories and Labour than us.”
Cable, Clegg, Huhne, Davey, Hughes and Alexander
Vince Cable pushed his chair back and rubbed his eyes. “Well, as Budgets go, this one hasn’t got much to get my teeth into. The EMA thing will obviously play well for us …”
“Yeah – what did Balls think was going to happen? Two years warning of abolition won’t help them at all – it’ll just keep it in the news longer”, said Hughes.
“Never mind that. It’s a gift, we’ll take it”, said Huhne. “Anything else, Vince?”
“ … hmm, pay freeze extended for another year. Cuts in manpower – I guess Balls won a fight or two with Brown over that”, muttered Cable.
“Could be a sign that Brown’s hold on power is weakening?”, suggested Clegg.
“Could be. Looks better for Balls than Milliband right now if so – the aid worker thing has played badly for Bananaman”, said Huhne. “Not that there was much different he could have done for the poor woman, but it does add to a general air of incompetence around the Foreign Office”
“… slight increase in transport spending – that’s good, actually. Another windfall tax on the banks – he’s really passed the point of diminishing returns here and he knows it, but it’s got to fund the transport spending as well as the VAT cut for home improvements. A promise of a cut in corporation tax, but the National Insurance holiday for small firms will probably do more than that. No full VAT cut, so our mole was wrong there”
“What’s the upshot, Vince?” asked Evan Harris.
“Mainly tinkering around the edges. He really needed to cut current spending by more than that, to be honest. The deficit will remain pretty bloody huge. Frozen income tax allowances won’t go down well, despite the uprating of Tax Credits, and could cut off the benefits of the rest of the package. To be honest, I think he missed another opportunity. He needs to get to grips with the current spending, and he hasn’t. As for the pension system – if they don’t do something major bloody soon, it’ll be too late. The big news is punting the Comprehensive Spending Review into Spring – he’s obviously decided that having been downgraded anyway and with the borrowing rates resilience, he can take a chance on that ”
“Well,”, said Huhne. “He’s given us a flying start in the student constituencies again, and it’s starting to look more like Balls to succeed his master. The Tories are already spreading money around against UKIP, but it doesn’t seem to be getting much traction yet. Rumours have it that Congdon is looking for a fresh suite of candidates from their new intake of activists since the election, to try to spike the ‘nutters and fruitcakes’ line”
“Bugger”, said Ed Davey. “The novices and incompetents they’ve had in UKIP were the best thing we’ve had going for us. Martin, Steve and Annette are getting downright worried about the threat in the South West. Stephen, Dan and Andrew are almost resigned to losing next time because of UKIP. And their ground organisation is getting noticeably better – the defectors from the Tories and from us is helping them. We’ve lost fifteen councillors in the South-West alone. The only consolation is that the Tories are even worse hit”
Huhne shook his head. “Not much I can do about that, though. We’ll just have to fight each constituency as hard as we can and see what happens”. He turned to Clegg. “Any news on Old and Sad?”
“Not yet. The special election court sits in a couple of weeks – looks like an open and shut case to me.”
“Good. Elwyn was how many votes behind last time? Couple of hundred, wasn’t it?”, asked Huhne.
“Three hundred and seventy – er – one”, replied Clegg, consulting his notes. “We should have a damn good shot at it. Put Elwyn up again?”
“Yes. We can run more on the ‘unfairness’ theme, that he should have been elected last time”.
“Can we get anything on the unfairness of EMA cuts into that new newspaper from the Indie? Should be fairly sympathetic to us.” asked Harris.
“Good idea. See if we can get a regular column in it”, Huhne looked back down at his notes, the figures on one sheet catching his eye. “Could help out for the campaign warchest actually – God knows we need the funds”.
“Polls don’t look too good – but not too bad, either. Looks like Brown was right not to cut and run. Lots of sympathy for Cameron over his Dad”, said Hughes.
“Any useful info from Mark Pack and his geeks?”, asked Clegg.
“Not much. Tories into the thirties. Labour becalmed in the mid-twenties. We’re definitely ahead of UKIP, but down on the election result by a point or so. Apparently, though, this is covering a lot of churn under the waves, so it’s hard to tell what the outcome will be. It’s very different region by region and demographic by demographic”, said Harris. “One thing’s for sure – he expects more than three UKIP MPs next time”
The silence that greeted his statement stretched on. Eventually, Clegg said “Well, so they’re here to stay, then. We’re just going to have to deal with it. And try to make sure it’s more of a problem for the Tories and Labour than us.”
As the TL-writer said to his wife.
(sorry, I don't know what it is about you that makes me so sexually inappropriate)
A great update, nice to see How The Yellow Side Lives. Nice irony of Labour being forced to axe EMA - I look forward to more analysis of the answer to Dave's favourite question ('what would Labour cut?') as the TL continues.
I wonder when the economist in the room is going to addressed, I imagine Huhne's collapsing marriage would have gained more attention in the media than before. Especially if Vicki decides to sink her husband's career earlier than OTL, meaning that we could see the LibDems do worse and the nightmare scenario of UKIP becoming a third party in terms of votes with voters going red, blue and purple.
Interesting update, Andy.
Interesting update, Andy.