Mayan, Aztec, Inca on the world stage

[GameBawesome]

If the Cortes and Pizarro expeditions failed, and the Aztec and Incan Empire somehow survives, a new Mayan Confederacy Forms, and no European power try to conquer them, and they survive the plagues, what would their roles be in the world?

Would they try to learn from the Europeans?
Would they adopt Christianity after all the plagues?
Would they adopt European Weapons?
Would they build European style Ships?
Would they trade with various European Empires and Asia?
Would the they fight in European colonial wars?
Would they try to form their own Colonial Empires?

 

[Arcavia]

1. Yes, in some sense, they most likely would. However, that could mean most anything.

2. I find it exceedingly doubtful that they would of their own accord. However, they might tolerate missionaries from states other than Spain operating within their borders, particularly if that was the condition for trade deals.

3. To some extent, yes. Any captured weaponry would almost certainly be used, likely by elite guards or similar units. However, their metallurgy was still in a copper-era stage, so it's unlikely that they can develop advanced native weaponry in anything resembling a reasonable amount of time without aid from another European power...possibly the Dutch, who would love to both trade and create a new thorn in the side for the Spanish? In any case, IIRC only the Inca had substantial mineral deposits.

4. The Inca, who are in the best position to maintain their independence for a while given their isolation, don't have the timber required to build European style ships. The Aztec or Mayans might, but without cannon they really can't make effective use of them especially without a developed nautical tradition. None of them are going to become naval powers.

5. Asia is a long stretch unless you're going with a Ming Treasure Fleet POD or something similar. Europe is another story. I could easily see the Dutch or possibly English selling weapons to the Inca in particular, as well as knowledge of metallurgy and mining, to the natives as a way to disrupt the Spanish and get a share of the regions' mineral wealth.

6. The Aztec and Mayans will likely have to face future waves of Spaniards or English and will therefore be the objective of the colonial wars. The Inca may prove a tough enough nut to crack to develop into a power player in Latin America, particularly if someone other than the Spanish colonizes Argentina.

7. Not in the sense of overseas empires, no. They just won't have the shipbuilding capacity. The Inca might colonize up and down Peru, or the Aztec in central Mexico, but they wouldn't be colonial powers in the European sense. Later on, however, a Meiji Inca might do something in the South Pacific.

Overall, I think that the Aztec won't have time to rebuild before the next wave of Europeans comes, and likely will become a colony of some sort. The Maya, with less valuable and more defensible territory, might hang on for longer, but I doubt they can come out as a developed state.

The Inca are another story. Especially if they can develop better disease tolerance, either by long-term exposure or possibly by inviting some European settlers, they are IMO in an excellent position to hold on until the 1800s and ultimately pull a Meiji, as mentioned above. Their geography won't be enough to support a population base rivalling a roughly as OTL USA as *the* American power, but they will have much more influence on the world stage than Chile/Bolivia/Peru do today.

 

[Albert.Nik]

In my opinion,they would need more people to do this. So they would need to take in a lot of European settlers to do this.

 

[Arcavia]

In my opinion,they would need more people to do this. So they would need to take in a lot of European settlers to do this.

yea, that's the main impediment the Inca especially will have. That being said, though, the region between Ecuador and Chile OTL has ~70-80m people, and I could see that increasing a good bit in an alternate timeline. So, in the long run, they certainly have the ability to be a middling power, particularly if they end up owning a lot of Pacific islands. *Possibly* somewhere around OTL Japan or Great Britain in the present?

 

[GameBawesome]

If the Aztecs, the Incas, and the Maya did survive, would trading with them be very lucrative, since they have gold, silver, chocolate, peppers, and other exotic goods?

 

[B_Munro]

yea, that's the main impediment the Inca especially will have. That being said, though, the region between Ecuador and Chile OTL has ~70-80m people, and I could see that increasing a good bit in an alternate timeline. So, in the long run, they certainly have the ability to be a middling power, particularly if they end up owning a lot of Pacific islands. *Possibly* somewhere around OTL Japan or Great Britain in the present?

Note though that a lot of that population is from the 20th century demographic boom: at independence Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru had a combined population of maybe 4 million, about 1/4 of the UK at the time. Of course, it's hard to say what the demographics of an Inca empire that stays independent will be: after the 16th century collapse, population recovery OTL was slow in the 17th and 18th century.

 

[Arcavia]

Note though that a lot of that population is from the 20th century demographic boom: at independence Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru had a combined population of maybe 4 million, about 1/4 of the UK at the time. Of course, it's hard to say what the demographics of an Inca empire that stays independent will be: after the 16th century collapse, population recovery OTL was slow in the 17th and 18th century.

There will still be a population collapse due to disease, but if there's no Spanish mismanagement it certainly won't be worse than OTL.

 

[B_Munro]

There will still be a population collapse due to disease, but if there's no Spanish mismanagement it certainly won't be worse than OTL.

True, but if they're better off, they might also get an earlier demographic transition. The 19th century European population boom due to industrialization was less than that of the third world in the 20th, at least in part due to effective medicine not arriving until pretty late in the century, and was dying down by the time the third world population really started to take off.

(To be more brief, using OTL numbers as a guide to what the population of surviving Inca empire would be is iffy: they might do a lot better than OTL Peruvians and Bolivians in the 17th and 18th centuries, industrialize, and still end up with less people than those countries OTL in 2018).

 

[B_Munro]

The main problem to native American societies doing more than merely surviving is how long it take them to develop a resistance to European diseases and bottom out, demographically speaking. Indeed, larger states will have trouble simply holding together during that period. I think we sometimes underestimate just how bad the disease impact was: simply maintaining advanced state systems under the impact of population declines of 90% or more is quite difficult. We may say "oh, but the Spanish wouldn't be there to mess things up", but having the Spaniards stick around isn't necessary: we get one glimpse of the densely populated agricultural societies of the Amazon by an expedition up the river, and then, boom, they're gone: the Terra Preta agricultural complex wasn't rediscovered until the late 20th century. Similarly, DeSoto stomps through and the southeastern US societies undergo a severe decline not only in population but social organization.

The thing is, there are no real analogies in European history, except maybe saying "Imagine the Black Death. Then imagine five or six comparably awful plagues, all over the course of a few generations." It's really a science fiction horror movie scenario, with Dustin Hoffman or whoever failing to create the antidote in time. The Andromeda Strain (movie, not TV miniseries) comes to my mind: remember the town, exposed to the disease, everyone dead, their blood coagulated in their veins, the only survivors a colicky baby and a traumatized alcoholic who both are lucky enough to have the right blood chemistry for immunity? Imagine that as a native American village after the European diseases have swept through, and perhaps we're getting a bit closer to the feel of it.

 

[Richard V]

The Inca are another story. Especially if they can develop better disease tolerance, either by long-term exposure or possibly by inviting some European settlers, they are IMO in an excellent position to hold on until the 1800s and ultimately pull a Meiji, as mentioned above. Their geography won't be enough to support a population base rivalling a roughly as OTL USA as *the* American power, but they will have much more influence on the world stage than Chile/Bolivia/Peru do today.

I don't know about a Meiji, but pulling a Kamehameha would be well within the realm of possibility. With the amount of silver they had the Inca could buy a world class fleet and European advisers if they desired it.

 

[samoanbiscuit]

The only way I can see to prevent the collapse of Native American civilizations and their easy subjugation in the 1500s and eradication later on is if the Columbian Exchange was not a flood from Europe that started in 1492 but a trickle that came in from several places much earlier. Some ideas: Norse/Gaelic Irish settling Newfoundland (POD: Norse found a sustainable Vinland colony? Irish stumble upon Newfoundland coast and want to stay?), West Africans somehow finding their way to Amazonia and trading with terra preta cultures there (POD: Bantu are more inclined towards fishing and marine trade? West coast of Africa has some rich fisheries), Chinese fleets blown off course all the way to Central/South America and settling with states there (POD: Treasure fleets start much earlier? POD: Some imperial succession struggles end with loser sent into the ocean with a fleet of supporters? Chinese emperors can afford dramatic gestures like that), Japanese travelling across the Bering Strait and trading (POD: Fur becomes popular during one of the early eras?). Massive butterflies, but each POD contact would bring more technology, more new people and more new diseases to the New World.

If these contacts happened much earlier than 1492 (500-1000 AD), then by the time Columbus arrives in the West Indies, the Americas would be filled with peoples who are already hardened to most diseases the Europeans carry with them, most have some of the Eurasian agricultural package (like livestock) that allows for more labour, denser populations and thus more complex polities in more areas, some cultures would have adopted writing or made their own systems after contact, and have more advanced material technology such as bronze/ironworking, and even maybe gunpowder. They might have more diseases to pass back to Eurasia in this ATL. Some North-Eastern polities may even be Christians of some sort. Bonus points the Bantu getting the Columbian exchange early would probably create a second Bantu expansion with these more productive crops (Nigeria is OTL the largest producer of cassava today, a crop that comes from South America), possibly butterflying away the Atlantic slave trade and scramble for Africa.

Even without a wank making ATL Inca, Mayans, Igbo or Zulus the future superpowers of the ATL world, it would be much more likely that most ATL New World and African cultures would survive the colonial era (would it even start without most of the New World's population conveniently dying and allowing early Rennaisance Europeans easy pickings?) with most of their cultures and histories intact, like many South East Asian countries today.

 

[Somebody-Someone]

Completely without European colonisation, I will guess that the Aztec empire would still collapse and likely be partitioned among its rivals (which should get more attention in alternate history), possibly with a rump state surviving around Lake Texcoco. Peten Itza was the largest Maya polity IIRC and I believe that it would have been well within the realm of possibility for it to conquer most of Péten, Belize and Quintana Roo, but I expect southern Guatemala to remain disunited for a long time. The Pipil and Lenca states would continue to exist and probably expand somewhat. I really do not know enough about the native people of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica or Panama to make an accurate guess.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

Completely without European colonisation, I will guess that the Aztec empire would still collapse and likely be partitioned among its rivals (which should get more attention in alternate history), possibly with a rump state surviving around Lake Texcoco. Peten Itza was the largest Maya polity IIRC and I believe that it would have been well within the realm of possibility for it to conquer most of Péten, Belize and Quintana Roo, but I expect southern Guatemala to remain disunited for a long time. The Pipil and Lenca states would continue to exist and probably expand somewhat. I really do not know enough about the native people of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica or Panama to make an accurate guess.

The Aztec are more durable than you and others give them credit for. If their main enemies for the time remain the traditional Mesoamerican foes, for the time being, the Aztec can resist these forces. In the period directly prior to Cortez, the Aztec had held loose dominion over most of its rivals aside from the Tarascan and Mixtec. During the reign of Ahuitzotl (1486-1502) and Monteczuma II (1502-1519), the Aztec dominion had increased by around 1/3 of its size and seemed extremely healthy, both militarily and economically. When Cortez battled the Aztec at Otumba, the Aztec Triple Alliance, fielded an army of around 80,000 warriors, such a large number raised at such a rapid time, would most likely defeat any of the Mesoamerican forces even if they joined together in a coalition (assuming it is a situation where the Aztec must defend its home city). In the 1490s, the Aztecs had closed off Yopitzinco and conquered southward into modern El Salvador... Any suggestion of what occurs in the Mayan lands without recognizing the soon to be Aztec influence on these areas, is a weak assessment.

One issue that many are forgetful of and or unaware of, is according to some scholars and many recent discussions on the topic of American civilization, is the effect of the cooling that began in the Northern Hemisphere in the early 14th century and progressed rapidly into the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries, devastating Europe, China, the Middle East, North Africa and so forth, this much is known. However, in the same sense, we find that a similar process was occurring in America, that is the cooling likely caused declines of crops (as it did in China) and drastic population declines in much of North America. Even if we assume that Europeans or peoples form the Old World never arrive, Mesoamerica and America in general will have a steep population decline and civilizational transition as was seen in most of the Old World aside from Sub-Saharan Africa or areas deep in the tropics, such as Indonesia. Mind you, in otl, Mesoamerica lost approximately in moderate estimates, 80% of its population between 1520 and 1600, a population decline not dissimilar to that seen in Europe during the Plague and the possible population loss seen in the rest of North America, such as in the East Coast, Saint-Lawrence Bay, the Mississippi River Valley and so forth, possibly even exceeded the decline in Mesoamerica. Thus, what will force a collapse of the Aztec order, will be this climatic change known as the Little Ice Age and the accumulated diseases, how the Mesoamerican states can avoid after this, European domination, is beyond me.

 

[LNSS]

Mesoamerica was also rather centralized and urbanized, if the Mexica themselves fall, it just means that the rulers of Mesoamerica are going to call themselves something else. It's even possible that whoever is on top will make Tenochtitlan its ruling centre, for the same reasons the Spaniards did.

The main problem to native American societies doing more than merely surviving is how long it take them to develop a resistance to European diseases and bottom out, demographically speaking. Indeed, larger states will have trouble simply holding together during that period. I think we sometimes underestimate just how bad the disease impact was: simply maintaining advanced state systems under the impact of population declines of 90% or more is quite difficult. We may say "oh, but the Spanish wouldn't be there to mess things up", but having the Spaniards stick around isn't necessary: we get one glimpse of the densely populated agricultural societies of the Amazon by an expedition up the river, and then, boom, they're gone: the Terra Preta agricultural complex wasn't rediscovered until the late 20th century. Similarly, DeSoto stomps through and the southeastern US societies undergo a severe decline not only in population but social organization.

The thing is, there are no real analogies in European history, except maybe saying "Imagine the Black Death. Then imagine five or six comparably awful plagues, all over the course of a few generations." It's really a science fiction horror movie scenario, with Dustin Hoffman or whoever failing to create the antidote in time. The Andromeda Strain (movie, not TV miniseries) comes to my mind: remember the town, exposed to the disease, everyone dead, their blood coagulated in their veins, the only survivors a colicky baby and a traumatized alcoholic who both are lucky enough to have the right blood chemistry for immunity? Imagine that as a native American village after the European diseases have swept through, and perhaps we're getting a bit closer to the feel of it.

Mesoamerican culture survived both the diseases and the Spaniards, so if you remove the latter you still have them in a good enough position to continue their civilization. It's not that difficult. Cortez dies during the Noche Triste (stray arrow), his demoralized troops are picked apart by the Mexica. At that point his expedition was unauthorized by the Spanish crown and he was still an outlaw. From the Spaniard's point of view, this outlaw ventured into the jungles of Mexico and just never returned, though rumors of his demise reach Cuba. The era of Conquistadors never comes, and the Spaniards stick to the original plan, use their posessions in the Caribbean as trading posts and engage in trade with the "Indians".

Of course, disease would be running rampant at this point, the Mexica might fall and get replaced as top dogs by the Tlaxcalans or someone else, who take over the former's empire. There's a period of rebuilding, during which, Catholic missionaries would venture into Mesoamerica and write detailed accounts of the local's culture and religion, some rulers might convert to Catholicism, all the while innovations such as gunpowder and horses get introduced gradually. It's hard to say what happens next, because without the era of colonisation the era of imperialism in the 19th Century likely gets butterflied away, and Spain probably also never reaches the heights it reached OTL. I suspect in the 20th Century you would have one or several Nahua-speaking Catholic countries in Mesoamerica though.

 

[M79]

Do we get to account for existing Pacific trade and how would the Polynesians fit into this?

 

[Somebody-Someone]

The Aztec are more durable than you and others give them credit for.

I meant that once diseases show up and kill at a very minimum 80% of its population, the aztecs will collapse. Also, does this thread assume that european colonisation happens, but just does not take over Mesoamerica and South America?

Do we get to account for existing Pacific trade and how would the Polynesians fit into this?

I could see this going in multiple different ways, possibly simultaneously. Trade with the Tawanitnsuyu is almost certain, unless they get kicked out, but I would also not be surprised if coastal raiding also occurs, possibly causing conquests to go in the other direction. However, depending on who gets guns first and who gets diseases first, a scenario in which some polynesians exploit a succession crisis in the Tawantinsuyu is possible. Pissarro's success in conquering the entire empire was nearly ASB, but splitting off Ecuador or northern Chile would be possible in such a scenario.

 

[Mort the Reaper]

Mesoamerican culture survived both the diseases and the Spaniards, so if you remove the latter you still have them in a good enough position to continue their civilization. It's not that difficult. Cortez dies during the Noche Triste (stray arrow), his demoralized troops are picked apart by the Mexica. At that point his expedition was unauthorized by the Spanish crown and he was still an outlaw. From the Spaniard's point of view, this outlaw ventured into the jungles of Mexico and just never returned, though rumors of his demise reach Cuba. The era of Conquistadors never comes, and the Spaniards stick to the original plan, use their posessions in the Caribbean as trading posts and engage in trade with the "Indians".

Do you think the Mexica might use survivors to learn how to make Old World weapons?

 

[LNSS]

Do you think the Mexica might use survivors to learn how to make Old World weapons?

Probably, but they would get those weapons from merchants anyway.

 

[Byzantion]

If the Cortes and Pizarro expeditions failed, and the Aztec and Incan Empire somehow survives, a new Mayan Confederacy Forms, and no European power try to conquer them, and they survive the plagues, what would their roles be in the world?

Would they try to learn from the Europeans?
Would they adopt Christianity after all the plagues?
Would they adopt European Weapons?
Would they build European style Ships?
Would they trade with various European Empires and Asia?
Would the they fight in European colonial wars?
Would they try to form their own Colonial Empires?

They could hire European mercenaries and gunsmiths.

 

[NiGHTS]

The main problem to native American societies doing more than merely surviving is how long it take them to develop a resistance to European diseases and bottom out, demographically speaking. Indeed, larger states will have trouble simply holding together during that period. I think we sometimes underestimate just how bad the disease impact was: simply maintaining advanced state systems under the impact of population declines of 90% or more is quite difficult. We may say "oh, but the Spanish wouldn't be there to mess things up", but having the Spaniards stick around isn't necessary: we get one glimpse of the densely populated agricultural societies of the Amazon by an expedition up the river, and then, boom, they're gone: the Terra Preta agricultural complex wasn't rediscovered until the late 20th century. Similarly, DeSoto stomps through and the southeastern US societies undergo a severe decline not only in population but social organization.

The thing is, there are no real analogies in European history, except maybe saying "Imagine the Black Death. Then imagine five or six comparably awful plagues, all over the course of a few generations." It's really a science fiction horror movie scenario, with Dustin Hoffman or whoever failing to create the antidote in time. The Andromeda Strain (movie, not TV miniseries) comes to my mind: remember the town, exposed to the disease, everyone dead, their blood coagulated in their veins, the only survivors a colicky baby and a traumatized alcoholic who both are lucky enough to have the right blood chemistry for immunity? Imagine that as a native American village after the European diseases have swept through, and perhaps we're getting a bit closer to the feel of it.

I'd say that the effects of disease are overestimated. In the Andes and Mesoamerica, which were the most densely populated areas, there are still tens of millions of indigenous people alive. And that's after not only disease, but after centuries of masshacres and slavery. In Yucatan, the Maya kept having rebellions until the early 1900s. Even today, indigenous people revolt against the Mexican government in the South in the form of the Zapatistas. 400-500 years of oppression, which not only are perpetuated by the colonial governments , but by their successors, and their are still this many and their independent languages and culture are still limping on. Disease was bad, but it was made worse by the Spaniards coming in and making things worse by forcing people into slavery, and thus not giving time for people bto rest and fight off the disease. TBH, I think a lot of the blaming of the indigenous deaths serves to underemphasize the effects that European exploitation had on them, which tends to play into the agenda of people who want to deemphasize the atrocities committed in the name of colonialism.

Even in the less densely populated areas, it's very hard to recover from disease and death in general, when you are being deprived of land, and thus access to food resources, by incoming settler colonists, who if they are not pushing you to the bad territories, they are massacring you.