May Day 2011. A speculative TL

Ak-84

Banned
XI Corps HQ, Peshawar Cantt. 20:35 hrs, May 1st 2011.
He was pissed off. Of that, anyone could tell. Or they would have if they had been around. In the event, there were only two other men present; both contractors who were doubtless being paid extra. No such amenities or bonuses would go his way, that at least was a certainty. In any case, they were in another part of the Raj era building; which had seen better days and which the Engineers had stated was "unfit for ordinary use". So, of course, it had been requisitioned for what was the Corps most important and most secret operation and the last few months had been spent in trying and failing to make it....comfortable....no.,that was obviously impossible.... tolerable. He was alone in his the control booth, which had been somehow been fitted inside, his eyes bloodshot as he looked over at the feed from the bird. It had been 4 hours and there were at least 4 more hours to go. More if fuel allowed.

The manual had specified that two operators must be present during normal operations, but like everything else in the Army, that had been ignored when convenient. Like today. He had been hoping to enjoy a long weekend back at home. After all for the first time in several years, the front was quiet. Despite that right after breakfast, he got the call. Intelligence reported that a large group of Tangos, based just across the border was planning to move today, so could he take a look at the area, please. His wife had been furious when he told her, that he had to go in. Making Major had its disadvantages; everyone senior was on higher priority tasks/out of station and he could not fob it off to someone junior, that would set a bad example. So it transpired, he was sitting in the booth looking at the LED at miles and miles of harsh brown Afghan countryside as the UAV flew over. The Tangos were nowhere to be found. Probably happily sitting in their huts, watching TV, jacking off to porn on the web, or reading a book. Anything but moving. Some asset had no doubt heard a rumour and reported it up, where it got more and more embellished as it travelled through the chain until it ruined his weekend and or his marriage.

The UAV was on autopilot at 12,000 feet. At this range, the horizon was nearly 200 km. He'd expanded the radius of its orbit, to well past Jalalabad, just in case the Tangos, wise to the fact of the aerial platforms and their clandestine observations, had decided to move on a less obvious axis. Once again, no result. It was, of course, definitive, the camera quality was top notch, and any movement would have been obvious. The Tangos were staying put tonight. The UAV had gone so far out, he could now see the "secret" ISAF base outside Jalalabad, a joint CIA, Special Ops site. Like most professional soldiers, he mistrusted and disliked both spies and commandos, but in this type of war, it had to be admitted they were useful.

And industrious from the looks of it. The base was positively teeming with activity. Maybe that's why the Tangos were staying put? But, no this was obviously far more than mere commando operations against a few militants. This was truly puzzling. He glanced at the latest activity reports.....no word on any ISAF or US operations being planned or any other activity more than normal. Strange. He gently retook manual control of the Drone as it turned away and put it back into view of the base. An uneasy thought went through his mind. The RADARS in this sector were down for repair. He had been told just before start of the mission by the Air Force Coordinator. He had paid little heed, not really relevant, but now? Hardly any coverage to speak off in the sector.

The Tangos retreated from his mind as he thought about his next steps. He could call it in....and make himself extremely unpopular with people in the detachment specifically and Corps HQ generally as everyone came back in over the next few hours. Especially since this was probably due to a missed line in the intel report or a drill at the base, or something equally as stupid. Just snap a few photos and write it up. Let the senior staff deal with it tomorrow, yes that's what he should do. And drink some tea. That sounded good. He looked for the phones on his left, a set of receivers with direct lines to various places and also to the support staff and reached forward..............
 

Ak-84

Banned
Even with all the years of investigations, inquiries committees and now memoirs, its hard to say definitively what exactly happened on that May Day. Certainly, one would expect that the unscheduled presence of the UAV would have not gone unnoticed by ISAF and the US Military. Yet there is no evidence that it was noticed. Not in the testimony before Congress. Or in the declassified papers. Or even in the 2011 Wikileaks cache which otherwise brought so much material on this sordid affair to light. Detection was something of which the planners and commanders had spent considerable time on and the date selected was one in which it was felt had the best chances of avoiding it. Indeed, rumours persist that earlier missions were cancelled when the Commanders feared that the other side had been or might soon be, alerted. The most common explanation is that the UAV **was** seen, but discounted. It is true at the time just how good the Shahpar UAV's optics were was not appreciated. It is admittedly an unsatisfactory. answer.

The Afghan War's Second Decade; Maj Peter Smith USAF, HarperCollins 2018.
 

Ak-84

Banned
A Resturant in Islamabad. May 1 2011.
Nargis Sethi, the Secretary Cabinet had long since accepted that privacy and family time were not two of the things that senior Civil Servants were expected to have in abundance. Still she was annoyed when a military officer in civilian dress showed up 20 minutes after she was able to start a resturant meal with her family. At least the man had the decency to look embarrassed.
"I am sorry ma'am, but flash priority from Communications. Eyes only SEC CAB".
"Here"? She motioned to the rather full resturant. Even though her table was to the side and perhaps a touch more private.
"Written message ma'am."
"Ok".
She took the binder from the officer and opened it. Inside there was an page which as far as she could tell was full of gibberish.
"Whats this mean, Colonel?", remembering the mans rank in time.
"Some unusual activity across the border. In fact here is the raw video feed.". The man opened up a small laptop he had brought with him. Appaently it was not just a written message. The video ran for perhaps a minute showing what seemed to be a base filled with troops and helicopters. How all that was a problem, Sethi could not say, having never served in the military. Obviously the intelligence people thought the ongoings at that base unusual. Still, she had always trsuted the military's readings of these things, it was their readings of their meanings she took issue with.
"Who brought us this"?
"An asset in the area". That was all the Colonel would give in the circumstance or truth be told, would know. No doubt the file back at the office would tell her a lot more.
"What time was this taken"? "20:50". She looked at her watch, it was just after 9. Fast work.

As Secretary Cabinet, Sethi coordinated the work of the intelligence and security services, amongst her many responsibilities. Nearly every important piece of information passed her desk. Her regular meetings with the principles had enabled her to gain an understanding of the often opaque and confusing world of espionage and intelligence in a way that few outsiders ever did. Despite that, she remained an outsider and making decisions without the principles input was something she would not ordinarily do.Certainly not based on some maneovers by the Armed forces of what was; ostensibly an ally. She could call the President. But he would no doubt call Obama and speak his most obsequious tone to the US leader, making her cringe and also reveal more secrets than anyone was comfortable with. Calling the Principles back for a conference was another option. With current communications she could do it through video links. That would necessitate leaving the resturant and going to her offical car. Family dinner would be shot. Again. She could just about hear them giving their reccomendations "increase readiness and contact ISAF on the hotline".

Yet the military obviously had felt this was of interest. The information had gone from the "asset" up the chain and sent to the Secretary within less than half an hour. It was true that military men, especially interlligence types were cautious. It was also true they did not always understand diplomacy and politics very well. Add to the fact that this was a holiday, many people between her and the asset, who would normally have looked at the report and appended their views were missing. It had basically come to her raw. She felt rather like a patient who was given the test reports and asked to decide without consulting a doctor. A far cry from the start of her career, spent running health programmes for rural women! Clearly patience and clear thinking were the rule of the day.

"Colonel". "Yes, Ma'am". "Distribute this for tommorrow mornings principles conferance. Its at 9 a.m. We'll deal with it then. Make sure their staffs get copies and short summeries before hand, video remains classified".
"Yes ma'am". "Thank you, that will be all".
The man stood up to leave, nodding in lieu of saluting seeing as he was in civvies.
"And Colonel, advice Air Defence Command of this forthwith".
"Ma'a,m!"
 

Ak-84

Banned
My relations with Leon Panetta were never comfortable. I had never been entirely satisfied withe the manner of CIA functioning in the operational areas. This had been true in Iraq and even more so in Afghanistan; an area the agency saw as "its turf". It operated independantly of both the State and Defence Departments and was often at loggerheads with us, having its own objectives and priorities, rather than serving as an agent to fulfill the national will. It had been observed; and not totally jokingly, at ISAF HQ that the CIA was far more rogue and out of control then it accused the ISI of being. Despite all its machinations the CIA had accomplished little of what it had set out to do or indeed ordered to do. Which is why they were so adament to move on this....it promised to be a rare win in what had been a frustrating and gloryless conflict. Even though the drawbacks were huge and the positives mostly symbolic. The Obama administration was in disarray. Most of his advisors were domestic specialists with little interest in foreign affairs, and they saw the wars as an unwelcome inheritance from the Bush years, which meant that they simply agreed to what the old guard said. And Panetta was the epitome of the old guard. Under him the drone programme had expanded exponentionally going from a tool to the signature tactic in the war. It had annoyed the Pakistanis making cooperation difficult. It had also undercut State Department policy programmes in Pakistan. Panetta had openly attaked and insulted the Ambassador in Islamabad during a conferance call, in violation of all procedures and prior practice, to no protests from the Secretary of State.

Despite this, the actual successes of the drone programme were hard to quantify. Although we killed on an industrial scale, results on the battlefield still went againt us, as killed were easily replaced. Obama earned great plaudits for his "toughness", that perhaps was the only avantage anyone got out of it.

By the time of "May Day", I had established good relations with the Pakistani military, especially its senior leadership. They had been by that time been involved in continious operations against TTP and AQ for nearly four years. The pace of operations had slowed down in the months leading to May Day, as units and formations rested and refittted. This was used as "evidence" of duplicuity and "selective" by many in the CIA, who were not shy about leaking this to a credulous press. In my own travels and visits, I found little evidence of this and found claims of exhaustion credible, based on my own observations and experience. But then, what would I know, I was just a General!

We had provided some advanced gear to the Pakistanis and rumours abounded that they had also begun indigenous programmes/collaberations with the Chinese to replicate these capabilities. The outcomes of the latter have come into public view in the years since. Some were in evidence then. In the years of hearings after May Day I have been asked many times as to whether we knew "something". Special reference has been made to some sort of special "stealth "UAV, often claimed to be Chinese supplied. All I can say in public is; in the hours leading up to May Day, we did not see anything which worried us, except the general concerns about detection, which existed regardless and which is why we had strongly advised against the operation.

The Memoirs of David Patraeus Simon & Schuster 2018 at pg 264
 
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