Maximum Territorial Boundaries of a Neutral Italy

What do you all think is the maximum territorial extent that Italy could have achieved if it had stayed neutral, or largely neutral, in World War 2? I imagine in such a situation that Italy would be courted by both Allied and German diplomatic efforts who would want to secure economic and military agreements with the large, neutral state, as was the case with smaller countries such as those in Iberia. Could Italy have given favorable economic status to the UK and the French government in exile in exchange for colonies in Africa? Italy could sell the British or French some amount of weapons or supplies in exchange for the French colony in Djibouti, and the British one in Somaliland. Tunisia and Malta are also potential Italian asks at the negotiating table, but their strategic importance in the war I imagine would keep any talk of transfer or sale to Italy virtually a nonstarter.

There's also the matter of Yugoslavia, could Italy have extracted territorial concessions from the Kingdom without joining the wider war? If so, what's the most they could get and keep post war?
 
What do you all think is the maximum territorial extent that Italy could have achieved if it had stayed neutral, or largely neutral, in World War 2? I imagine in such a situation that Italy would be courted by both Allied and German diplomatic efforts who would want to secure economic and military agreements with the large, neutral state, as was the case with smaller countries such as those in Iberia. Could Italy have given favorable economic status to the UK and the French government in exile in exchange for colonies in Africa? Italy could sell the British or French some amount of weapons or supplies in exchange for the French colony in Djibouti, and the British one in Somaliland. Tunisia and Malta are also potential Italian asks at the negotiating table, but their strategic importance in the war I imagine would keep any talk of transfer or sale to Italy virtually a nonstarter.

There's also the matter of Yugoslavia, could Italy have extracted territorial concessions from the Kingdom without joining the wider war? If so, what's the most they could get and keep post war?

Tunisia and Malta are out of the question, but a better status for the italian minority in Tunisia and more italian cultural rights in Malta are pretty much garantee; Somaliland can be bought but Djibouti is more difficult (probably a demilitarizated status like OTL treaty is more probable).
Maybe some border rectification in Libya and favorable economic status from the Wallies is a given due to the overall strategic situation.

Jugoslavia is more complicated, much depend on how thing evolve during the war; if things goes as OTL and Berlin invade, Italy can partecipate or simply being given later some piece as compensation (and i doubt that Churchill and De Gaulle will care) and if she is too pro-axis once the writing in the wall are clear Italy will DoW Germany and invade...even to block the communist to get too much so near the italian border.

Greece can be 'persuaded' to make economic and diplomatic concession (plus some cultural concession at the Albania minority) but i doubt that Benny will start any invasion as Athens is seen as a British client
 
How neutral? Neutral in the conflict between the Allies and Germany? Or not going to war at all in the WW2 time frame? Italy might have a better time attempting to conquer Greece or attacking Yugoslavia if the main participants are willing to turn a blind eye as the price for neutrality. And what if Italy goes to war with Vichy France? Is that "neutral"?
 
I understand Malta, but why Tunisia? After all France is the one in worse trouble.

Too big, too important (the naval base of Bizerte among other things) and it's a giant size slap on the face on the credibility of any French goverment to surrender Tunisia to keep neutral Italy while continuing fighting
 
Too big, too important (the naval base of Bizerte among other things) and it's a giant size slap on the face on the credibility of any French goverment to surrender Tunisia to keep neutral Italy while continuing fighting

Right, I hadn't thought of that.

Do you think a demilitarised base, possibly with foreign observers and a formal sale would assuage both military and nationalistic concerns? Can we get away from ASB?
 
Right, I hadn't thought of that.

Do you think a demilitarised base, possibly with foreign observers and a formal sale would assuage both military and nationalistic concerns? Can we get away from ASB?

Unless the French are very very desperate, Italy at max can obtain a demilitarizated zone at the Libian border (both in Tunisia and Algeria) as per OTL peace treaty in 1940 and better treatment for the italian minority in Tunisia. If and i say if Benny and co. are extremely good negotiators and the French desperate enough Rome can obtain to reverse the border snatch that the French had done at the time Libya was owned by the Ottomans
 
This depends on what germany does in this TL...

Italy is not going to stand idle while germany dismantles yugoslavia. Italy is going to want the dalmatia coast & montenegro. Im not so sure how this can count as neutrality though since they are participating in the defeat of a neighbor.

The same with france. If germany attacks france, italy may join in to grab nizza, savoia and even try for corsica. Perhaps some of france's colonial possessions like tunisa.

My question is whether italy can stay neutral with a neighbor like germany to the north. Not sure if hitler had any demands from italy in a neutral stance (tyrol?)...
 
This depends on what germany does in this TL...

Italy is not going to stand idle while germany dismantles yugoslavia. Italy is going to want the dalmatia coast & montenegro. Im not so sure how this can count as neutrality though since they are participating in the defeat of a neighbor.

The same with france. If germany attacks france, italy may join in to grab nizza, savoia and even try for corsica. Perhaps some of france's colonial possessions like tunisa.

My question is whether italy can stay neutral with a neighbor like germany to the north. Not sure if hitler had any demands from italy in a neutral stance (tyrol?)...

Neutrality but in friendly terms like Spain. On a personal level Hitler liked Mussolini and if the latter managed to keep his hot head in check he would realise that Tunisia would be worth more than Nizza, Corsica and Dalmatia since they are respectively: just a town, an island as turbulent as Sicily and a piece of rock, while Tunisia has fertile land and is strategically placed.

About Südtyrol, I seem to recall Hitler saying something like "when your arm (Silesia, Danzig and Südetenland) has been chopped off, you don't complain about an earlobe".
Perhaps trade in difficult times would make up for OTL-like emigration to Austria.
 
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(light green is puppet states)

Reasoning to come later.
 
Neutrality but in friendly terms like Spain. On a personal level Hitler liked Mussolini and if the latter managed to keep his hot head in check he would realise that Tunisia would be worth more than Nizza, Corsica and Dalmatia since they are respectively: just a town, an island as turbulent as Sicily and a piece of rock, while Tunisia has fertile land and is strategically placed.

About Südtyrol, I seem to recall Hitler saying something like "when your arm (Silesia, Danzig and Südetenland) has been chopped off, you don't complain about an earlobe".
Perhaps trade in difficult times would make up for OTL-like emigration to Austria.

Good points but I would think it would be points of national pride and references to Italia Irredenta would be made by both the italian populace and even those in government. An italy that stands by idly and lets germany conquer yugoslavia and annex dalmatia, territories that were for centuries part of the venetian republic and considered part of italy, would be political suicide. Same goes for france. In this TL, I'd expect france to fall as planned and territories such as nizza, savoia & corsica would be simple and easy opportunistic grabs from a prostrate france.

If they are as worthless as you suggest, then getting them at the bargaining table shouldnt be that difficult.

I do agree with you about the strategic location and resources of tunisia
 
Good points but I would think it would be points of national pride and references to Italia Irredenta would be made by both the italian populace and even those in government. An italy that stands by idly and lets germany conquer yugoslavia and annex dalmatia, territories that were for centuries part of the venetian republic and considered part of italy, would be political suicide.

Like I said, that would require the Duce to be less impulsive.
Perhaps, instead of trying to bite off pieces of Adriatic coast, it would be more useful to have an independent and allied Croatia.
Was there someone less crazy than the Ustashe to fund?

Also this wasn't liberal Italy anymore and public opinion could be kept in check more easily.

Same goes for france. In this TL, I'd expect france to fall as planned and territories such as nizza, savoia & corsica would be simple and easy opportunistic grabs from a prostrate france.

If they are as worthless as you suggest, then getting them at the bargaining table shouldnt be that difficult.

I didn't say worthless, I meant not worth the trouble. Also and I admit there's some hindsight here, an officially ceded territory would be more likely to be kept whichever way the war went.

Just tell me if I'm beating a dead horse.
 
Italy would largely stay the same. The occupation of Ethiopia cost the Italians more then the whole Italian yearly GDP.
 
Italians can also occupy Albania without too much hassle. From France they will not gain any territorial compensation. Most likely otl demilitarized zone at there border. Bribes from Britain if they play it smart.
 
OK, let's say Mussolini gets a brain transplant in 1935. That's after he's already committed to the extravagantly costly conquest of Ethiopia, but before the beginning of the Spanish Civil War. He sets out to increase Italy's territories and sphere of influence, but without entering wars against any fair-sized power. He's also now endowed with an unerring sense for opportunities and timeliness.

1935
Italy starts with its post-WWI territory, which includes a sizable chunk of Istria along the Yugoslavian border, the Dodecanese, Libya, Eritrea and Somalia. It has a concession in Tientsin, China.

1936
- The Ethiopian War gets wrapped up; this is the largest territorial expansion.
- The regime secretly launches an Italianization campaign of the Ionian islands. No official policy, but subsidies are offered, naturalization as Italians made easy by the Italian consulates in Greece, etc.
- Italy drives a hard bargain with the Spanish generals at the very beginning of their coup. Instead of offering a hike for free, the troops will be airlifted to the mainland only if the generals grant long-term extraterritorial basing rights in the Baleares, Canary Islands, and Ceuta (as well as very favorable prices when it comes to exports of tungsten, copper, etc). The generals can't give up sovereign territory in an all-out annexation (that would be a political suicide), but bases are possible. The generals accept.

1937
- Italy mends fences with Britain and France as much as possible. It doesn't send a very noticeable army-sized force in Spain operating as one Italian bloc, but only dribs and drabs of volunteers who serve in the Spanish legionary units. Arms are supplied to the rebels, but not openly. No undeclared submarine warfare.
- The bases in Spain are established.
- Secret funding of Croatian nationalists is ramped up. Contrary to OTL, some money is also given to Serbian Communists.

1938
- Italy remains neutral and aloof, no Pact of Steel. No racial laws are passed, contrary to OTL. At Munich, Mussolini acts solely as a bona fide impartial broker.
- Talks with the British and French resume, as to the supply of Italian arms and aluminium. No final agreement reached, though.

1939
- Albania is occupied as per OTL.
- After the beginning of the war, negotiations with the British and the French resume: the trade mentioned above may be finalized, Italy will undertake to remain neutral, but demands border adjustments in the Alps and along the Tunisian-Libyan border, and British Somaliland. The French refuse a loss of metropolitan territory, however small, but agree to a smaller loss in Tunisia than the one the Italians demanded. The British accept to give up Somaliland but only after the end of the war. Deal is done.

1940
- The destabilization of Yugoslavia continues.
- Claims are raised against Greece, concerning the mistreatment of Albanian minorities along the Greek-Albanian border and the Italian minority in Corfu. That's really small, but growing thanks to the Italian measures mentioned above, and anyway Fascism claims it to be much larger than it actually is. For the time being, nothing comes of it, as the Greeks ignore the issue.

1941
- After Barbarossa has begun, and while everyone is occupied elsewhere (including the British, who are busy in the Atlantic and will soon be busy with the Archangelsk route), Italy forces Greece to negotiations. In OTL, the ultimatum the Greeks refused amounted to total loss of sovereignty, in this ATL the demands are limited; additionally, neither the British nor the Germans want to rock the boat in that area, and Italy isn't an ally of Germany. Greece caves in. Marginal border territory is lost along the Albanian border; a joint Italo-Greek management of the Ionian Islands is agreed upon. Naturally, with Italy being the senior partner.

1942
- Italy allows individual volunteers to reach Vienna, where an Italian legion is formed to fight in the East. That doesn't upset the British too much, and is a bone thrown to Hitler.
- A foreign-fomented coup is attempted in Belgrade. It fails, but rioting follows in Croatia, and the kingdom is clearly tottering.

1943
- Croatian uprising. The rebels are immediately supported by motorized Italian units. The Italo-Yugoslavian war ensues. Nobody has the forces or the interest to meddle in it. Italy doesn't push its luck, and stops its troops some 100 kms South of Zagreb. The Kingdom of Croatia is established, Pavelic is its Poglavnik. A few kilometers along the border fall under Italian annexation, but Croatia is a country on its own - in the Italian sphere of influence.
- The Italian-German trade dwindles to nothing. The formidable Alpine Line is complete. Italy lodges complaints with Germany for the sinking of some of its cargo ships by German U-Boote.

1944
- As the Allies steadily reduce German-held territories, Italy severs diplomatic relations with Germany.
- Italo-Yugoslavian peace treaty. Yugoslavia accepts the loss of Croatia. Croatia is in very close relationship with Italy.

1945
- Italy declares war on Germany and Japan. Simultaneously, it enters negotiations with China to get full sovereignty on its Tientsin Concession. Modest operations along the Alps.
- As the war draws to an end, Italy informs Britain that it is taking the Somaliland, as agreed. The british dither, the Italians set a date and move troops in. The British lower the flag.
- Final Italian offensive in the Austrian Alps. A depth of some 20 kms is gained.

1946
- The peace treaties acknowledge all the territorial gains of Italy, including the border region in Austria and Tientsin. The basing rights on Spanish territory will last until 2035. Croatia is recognized by many countries. As a participant in the war, Italy is among the UN founders.
 
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