Maximum Population of Germany

A lot. The Rhineland is one of the few areas where the inherent agricultural productivity of the area doesn't matter so much. It has such potential to be an industrial and economic hub that can afford to import food, in a way that the Canadian prairies or Brazillian cerrado doesn't. Anyway 120 million can be reached with migration from the Volksdeutsche and no world wars. Anything more than that is dependent on non-German migration but considering it's geographical location, transport capacity and mineral resources the German parts of the Rhine delta can absorb a hell of a lot of people.
 
In absolute terms? Probably over 330 million. That's if Germany was the wealthiest, foremost world power, with a high birth rate, and if it had been such for centuries.

Realistically, with a post-1900 POD? Probably more like 150 million, assuming the worst of both world wars were averted. Germany lost about 12% of its population during world war 1 and the revolution, 8% during world war 2 and after, and another 1% in the late '80s. If we assume that these periods of shrinkage can be replaced with periods of stagnance or even growth, we get a value of 148 million. If we look at the Netherlands, they grew threefold between 1900 and 2012, so with a little bit of stretching, 200 million in Germany might be possible, but that's really only if Germany curb-stomps its enemies in both world wars, establishes itself as the king of Europe by 1950, and decides to attract immigrants as a matter of policy.

EDIT: Didn't see you include Austria. We could have an absolute capacity of just under 40 million using Austria's land. That's not realistic, but it is possible. If Grossdeutshland was a third-world country with a massively booming population (like India), this would be possible: total 370 million.

If we assume a similar realistic population figure with the post-1900 POD, I would wager 15-20 million as the maximum there. So the maximum for Grossdeutschland using a post-1900 POD would be around 170-220 million. I'd put the lower figure as more likely, however.
 
Last edited:
But surely if Germany won WW2 then there'd be mass migration of Germans to the lebensraum in Eastern Europe, so the population within 1913 borders Germany might not increase that much.
 

Deleted member 1487

If you're willing to presume HRE borders than the upper limit could be well over 300 million realistically by 2000 if the world wars and political strife of the early modern period are avoided and a steady food source could be found, probably from the US and South America.

Using just the 1913 borders and avoiding the world wars, then easily over 100 million, probably close to 125 million+ by 2010, but with high emigration to the US and South America. German would be one of the largest ethnic groups in the world and probably the largest European ethnic group thanks to the benefit of emigration allowing their numbers to expand without affecting the economy negatively at home. It also spreads the culture and language, which if anything actually expands the economy at home, which may well cause a quicker slow down in population expansion at home through increased wealth. Germany may end up being 1980s Japan in the 1950s without the world wars.

Are we counting ex-pats that are still citizens? In that case there are probably several million living abroad for business or other reasons with citizenship and ties to the home country.


But surely if Germany won WW2 then there'd be mass migration of Germans to the lebensraum in Eastern Europe, so the population within 1913 borders Germany might not increase that much.
I doubt that Germans even with the Nazis would want to immigrate to a hostile land filled with hateful Slavs that want to fight the Nazi occupiers. Still there will be a massive population boom a la Iran thanks to Nazi birthing policies.
 
The Netherlands are a serious demographic outlier: no other northern European country grew anywhere near as fast. Germany 1913 borders plus Austria with no wars, I'd say anything over 120 million as distinctly unlikely.

(Also, Germany winning WWII? Definitely in the "distinctly unlikely" column).

Bruce
 
The Netherlands are a serious demographic outlier: no other northern European country grew anywhere near as fast.
Yeah, the Netherlands pretty much exploded in the 20th century.

Here's a graph I made for a similar thread regarding France, you might find it useful? A Germany that grows as fast as GB would reach about a 100 million in 1910, within its 1878 borders. Add whatever you feel would be appropriate for Austria. If they continue following the historic growth of GB, 150 million by the present day would be a distinct possibility for 1878 borders Germany alone. That's going back to 1700 though, so the suggestion that you could reach it from a 1900 POD seems unlikely.

I know it's pre-1900, but I but too much effort into the graph to not link it when it seems slightly useful! :p

attachment.php
 
With regards the UK note that that growth rate is for England, if you add in Scotland and Ireland the growth rate for the UK is a lot less impressive and closer to the norm. There is a big difference between the natural increase in population that the Netherlands recorded and Irish peasants becoming Liverpool dockworkers. By the second half of the 19th century we had entered stage 3 of the demographic transition and the population growth is only being maintained by migration.
 
With regards the UK note that that growth rate is for England, if you add in Scotland and Ireland the growth rate for the UK is a lot less impressive and closer to the norm. There is a big difference between the natural increase in population that the Netherlands recorded and Irish peasants becoming Liverpool dockworkers. By the second half of the 19th century we had entered stage 3 of the demographic transition and the population growth is only being maintained by migration.

But weren't England and Scotland (alongside Germany, Ireland, and Italy) major exporters of people to the Americas and Australia?
 
But weren't England and Scotland (alongside Germany, Ireland, and Italy) major exporters of people to the Americas and Australia?

Yes but whereas Germany was getting very little in-migration but a lot of out-migration it population growth rate can be described as "all natural" and it's relatively simple to read the stats and posit hypotheticals. Great Britain in contrast was not only a source of emigrants but also an immigrant destination. That complicates things, if an Liverpudlian didn't emigrate to Australia would the Irishman who replaced him on the Docks have come over, are the 3 million extra people recorded at the next census a sign that the English population grew by 3 million, or 5 million and 2 million emigrated, or did it grow by 6 million and 4 million left and 1 million arrived. We just don't know.
 
Last edited:
With regards the UK note that that growth rate is for England, if you add in Scotland and Ireland the growth rate for the UK is a lot less impressive and closer to the norm. There is a big difference between the natural increase in population that the Netherlands recorded and Irish peasants becoming Liverpool dockworkers. By the second half of the 19th century we had entered stage 3 of the demographic transition and the population growth is only being maintained by migration.
This is true, you can't just transfer the growth rate unto Germany without making sure the conditions that caused that explosive growth are matched. Which means you need a source for immigration during this period, and a Germany that can absorb it. The overall growth rate for the UK is still pretty impressive, but not massively so, when you include Ireland and Scotland.
 
What about with no Thrity Years War? The devastated large parts of Germany by around half, some parts even 1/3 killed.
 

Deleted member 1487

What about with no Thrity Years War? The devastated large parts of Germany by around half, some parts even 1/3 killed.

That was about 8 million killed over 30 years. Plus the Dutch and the HRE West of the Rhine, which went as far as Verdun, was conquered by France (this was when Alsace-Lorraine became French when previously were German).

So 8 million, plus the Lowlands and the West bank of the Rhein up to Verdun would add tens of millions of extra people. Poland is going to get colonized hard, as is Bohemia and the Balkans....
In that case Germany is going to be enormous in border terms and would be well over 200 million by 2000.
 
Top