If Pakistan had any chance of getting Kashmir it was in 1947 at the time of independence. If instead of sending in armed robbers and military men without uniforms, if Pakistan had gone for negotiation with the Viceroy and the Congress a settlement over Kashmir was not impossible. In fact Patel and the Congress leaders except Nehru were not particular about claiming the whole of Kashmir for India. India might have insisted only for Jammu and Ladakh regions which were non-Muslim and Hindu and Buddhist areas. But once Pakistan sent in the armed militants it became a prestige issue for India and no Government in India can give up any portion of Kashmir and expect to survive.
The state of undivided Kashmir consisted of five regions. The North West Gilgit area, the Western part around Muzafferabad, the Valley around Srinagar, The Jammu region and Ladakh region. The first three regions had Muslim majority and the remaining two areas were non-Muslim. In 1947 when the King of Kashmir refused to join either India or Pakistan and wanted to maintain independence, Pakistan sent in military men and armed tribals to capture the state by force. An alarmed King sought Indian help but India insisted that the state must join India before any military assistance is provided. The King obliged and India sent forces to Kashmir. The Indian forces arrived by the time the Pak forces entered the valley. They were pushed back out of the valley and when the Army was moving forward Nehru, foolishly approached U.N. and the U.N. ordered a ceasefire. Thus Gilgit and Muzaffarabad regions came under Pak occupation and the rest of Kashmir in Indian hands. The position has not changed in the last 66 years.