Maximum Ottomans

I think I agree with you, it's hard to tell. The Iranians and Ottomans adopted Shia and Sunni Orthodoxy respectively at the same time in order to try to legitimize themselves against each other and justify their wars. In other words, the religious conflict was because of the geopolitical conflict, not the other way around. Neither were particularly orthodox before they clashed, and actually they were nearly reversed - the Ottomans were very heterodox, and the Safavid order was initially Sunni-ish.

It was pretty critical, as the Safavids had a lot of support in Anatolia, which the Ottomans couldn't easily crush without convincing everyone they were heretics, and vice versa.
Yes, that's what I meant about the Osmanli being bothered by the Shia but not necessarily for the sake of religion. It involved control of the eastern borders, justifying expansion and legitimacy, Selim's policy against the Kizilbash compared to his father's etc. That the Ottomans eventually became the guardians of the Hejaz also tipped the scales pretty decisively in terms of Sunni/Shia in the Ottoman lands. How much was geopolitics and how much was piety and how much space was there between those two things at the time.... well that's definitely hard to tell as you say.

I've written elsewhere as to why I think Morocco is tough for the Ottomans but in a world where everything goes right I don't see why they wouldn't become a vassal state in the way the Algerians did. I still don't see them making much headway in Spain as I don't think they could have gotten west faster than they did and by then Spain was too strong that close to its heartland. I think that with a stable border in the west (and vassal states in Austria and Hungary) they will focus on the steppes.
 
So, what would have happened had Iran been united by an explicitly Sunni dynasty? Would the Ottomans themselves have been less united than OTL (since they weren't fighting "heretics")

Also, what would the effects on Iran itself have been? I think a world where the extremely strong cultural connections between Iran and Central Asia/Afghanistan were not weakened by the Sunni-Shia split would be interesting.

I don't think the cultural connections were terribly weakened. Its a good question, though - if both had been Sunni, it would have complicated matters. I would guess that the Safavids would have had far less legitimacy than the Ottomans and would have been in trouble.

With regard to cultural issues, don't forget, the Ottomans were not a Turkish empire - they were fundamentally a Persian one. There were lots of Turkic elements to their way of doing things, but it was Turco-Persian.
 
Yes, that's what I meant about the Osmanli being bothered by the Shia but not necessarily for the sake of religion. It involved control of the eastern borders, justifying expansion and legitimacy, Selim's policy against the Kizilbash compared to his father's etc. That the Ottomans eventually became the guardians of the Hejaz also tipped the scales pretty decisively in terms of Sunni/Shia in the Ottoman lands. How much was geopolitics and how much was piety and how much space was there between those two things at the time.... well that's definitely hard to tell as you say.

I've written elsewhere as to why I think Morocco is tough for the Ottomans but in a world where everything goes right I don't see why they wouldn't become a vassal state in the way the Algerians did. I still don't see them making much headway in Spain as I don't think they could have gotten west faster than they did and by then Spain was too strong that close to its heartland. I think that with a stable border in the west (and vassal states in Austria and Hungary) they will focus on the steppes.

It would require moving West earlier, in the 15th c. By the 16th, it's too late.

Morocco is possible, but a whole lot would have to go right - if the Ottomans were more Western-focused and had moved into Italy in the 15th c and on to Spain, then Morocco would be left very exposed with no other pressure on the Ottomans in the region.

That's very unlikely, but so is a teeny principality expanding in 200 years into a giant empire trans-continental empire.
 
Top