Maximum Lee victory at Gettysburg

How much could Lee conceivably achieve at one stroke by a really crushing victory at Gettysburg?

The strategic advantages of Union were not all concentrated at the battlefield.

The Union achieved a big victory when they were able, at Appomatox, to trap Lee´s army retreating from Richmond. Many people at the time hoped that Lee´s army could be trapped behind flooded Potomac retreating from Gettysburg.

Suppose that Lee achieves a clear victory at Gettysburg and in a few days, manages to get the retreating Union forces in a trap, short of food and ammunition.

A few thousands manage to flee without their stores or their wounded and get the bad news to the rest of Union, a few thousands die trying to do the same, maybe some try to fight again and a few thousands die in fight, but Lee at a stroke has tens of thousands of Union prisoners of war.

Grant did already win at Vicksburg, and there are other intact Union armies, but those are some distance away yet.

Maryland has been under military Union rule for two years. But Lee is not far away from the head of Chesapeake Bay. So Lee marches south through the western shore of Maryland, liberates Baltimore, Annapolis etc..

Washington has been fortified for two years and there are 10 000 men or so in garrison. Lee cannot take that on the stride. So, he posts an observing force of sufficient size to prevent a serious breakout, and installs coastal artillery batteries and mines down the Potomac. Then returns to northern Maryland/southern Pennsylvania, to deal with any Union army that may show up to try and relieve Washington, and wait for a political settlement.

What next? With the Administration presumed under siege in Washington, who exactly in the rest of Union has the authority to pick the commander of a force to relieve Washington or otherwise oppose Lee?

The draft riots in NY go on as per OTL, but the disappearance of Union army would give the matter a new urgency. Will New Yorkers want to enlist in the relief army, or will they disown the Federal administration, and send to negotiate for recognition of Confederacy and its gains?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Battles of annihilation were rare in the Civil War, the only major example *perhaps* being the Battle of Nashville. It would be extremely unlikely for Lee to achieve such a decisive victory at Gettysburg, but it's not inherently impossible. If he had achieved it, it would have had such massive consequences that I believe the war would have been won for the Confederacy.

It would have had a massive impact in foreign affairs. Many have often assumed that the chance of European recognition of the Confederacy was over after the Emancipation Proclamation, but such was not the case. In June of 1863, MP John Roebuck announced plans to place a resolution recognizing the Confederacy before Parliament, and Napoleon III in France was more inclined to recognize the Confederacy as well. IOTL, news of the Union victory at Gettysburg put an end to these efforts. If, rather, the news was of a massive Confederacy victory, I think the odds were better-than-average that recognition would come, and if that happened, Confederate independence would become much more likely.

Militarily, the de facto destruction of the Army of the Potomac would leave Union forces in the Eastern Theater is utter disarray. While I do not think Lee could have captured Washington itself, he could have captured Baltimore and Confederate raiding parties would have been able to roam across Pennsylvania between the Susquehanna and Mononghela River. This demonstration of the inability of the Lincoln administration to protect them would have made the pent-up anger demonstrated IOTL by the New York Draft Riots much worse. The New York disturbances would be magnified considerably, and we would probably see similar blow-ups in other cities.

The need to pull reinforcements from the West to the East would have dislocated Union operations there considerably. Vicksburg would still fall, of course, but we might see operation to capture Chattanooga cancelled as troops are shifted east by rail. The butterflies of this are enormous.

The Lincoln administration would be utterly discredited and his popularity, already low, would have plunged even further. But his still has more than a year until he is up for reelection, so the result would be political deadlock. Perhaps pinned in Washington, the administration would be unable to effectively coordinate policy, and we would see much more active Copperhead discontent in the Northwest.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
Best case scenario:

Lee's plan goes according to plan on the 2nd. The Federals have nailed themselves to the Vital Ground (Cemetery Hill), and Longstreet's and Ewell's Corps sweep forward to envelop the northern part of the AoP. 1st, 2nd and 11th Corps are surrounded and are crushed.

The remainder of the army (3rd, 5th, 6th and 12th Corps) are split, with 3rd and 5th to the S of the ANV, 6th and 12th to the E. With JEB Stuart's arrival, he throws his cavalry down Rock Creek, cutting the 2 bridges and removing their line of supply and withdrawal. The battered 3rd and 5th Corps might force march to the south and get away, but the rest are destroyed.

What happened OTL? Sickle's decided to advance and come in on Longstreet, and when Hood was hit, C&C broke down and they drifted left to start a meaningless fight for the Devil's Den and the Round Tops, momentum was lost and so was Confederate victory.
 
It would have had a massive impact in foreign affairs. Many have often assumed that the chance of European recognition of the Confederacy was over after the Emancipation Proclamation, but such was not the case. In June of 1863, MP John Roebuck announced plans to place a resolution recognizing the Confederacy before Parliament, and Napoleon III in France was more inclined to recognize the Confederacy as well. IOTL, news of the Union victory at Gettysburg put an end to these efforts. If, rather, the news was of a massive Confederacy victory, I think the odds were better-than-average that recognition would come, and if that happened, Confederate independence would become much more likely.
It would take time for the news to travel to Europe, the Europeans to make up their decisions and send answer back: IIRC, the first transatlantic cable laid in 1858 or so promptly failed.

But in Union itself, telegraphs did work, where not seized or cut by enemies. The Union forces would need to make up their opinions.
While I do not think Lee could have captured Washington itself,
Not at march.
he could have captured Baltimore and Confederate raiding parties would have been able to roam across Pennsylvania between the Susquehanna and Mononghela River. This demonstration of the inability of the Lincoln administration to protect them would have made the pent-up anger demonstrated IOTL by the New York Draft Riots much worse. The New York disturbances would be magnified considerably, and we would probably see similar blow-ups in other cities.
Unless the local government there defuses rioting by siding with the rioters against the Union administration.
The need to pull reinforcements from the West to the East would have dislocated Union operations there considerably. Vicksburg would still fall, of course, but we might see operation to capture Chattanooga cancelled as troops are shifted east by rail. The butterflies of this are enormous.

The Lincoln administration would be utterly discredited and his popularity, already low, would have plunged even further. But his still has more than a year until he is up for reelection, so the result would be political deadlock. Perhaps pinned in Washington, the administration would be unable to effectively coordinate policy, and we would see much more active Copperhead discontent in the Northwest.

How many mouths does Washington need to feed? And how many months is Washington supplied for?

Is it possible to have the outcome where Lincoln is killed or taken alive by confederates in July, 1863? Washington can hold out for a few months, but that leaves the Union without administration in the meanwhile...
 
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