How much could Lee conceivably achieve at one stroke by a really crushing victory at Gettysburg?
The strategic advantages of Union were not all concentrated at the battlefield.
The Union achieved a big victory when they were able, at Appomatox, to trap Lee´s army retreating from Richmond. Many people at the time hoped that Lee´s army could be trapped behind flooded Potomac retreating from Gettysburg.
Suppose that Lee achieves a clear victory at Gettysburg and in a few days, manages to get the retreating Union forces in a trap, short of food and ammunition.
A few thousands manage to flee without their stores or their wounded and get the bad news to the rest of Union, a few thousands die trying to do the same, maybe some try to fight again and a few thousands die in fight, but Lee at a stroke has tens of thousands of Union prisoners of war.
Grant did already win at Vicksburg, and there are other intact Union armies, but those are some distance away yet.
Maryland has been under military Union rule for two years. But Lee is not far away from the head of Chesapeake Bay. So Lee marches south through the western shore of Maryland, liberates Baltimore, Annapolis etc..
Washington has been fortified for two years and there are 10 000 men or so in garrison. Lee cannot take that on the stride. So, he posts an observing force of sufficient size to prevent a serious breakout, and installs coastal artillery batteries and mines down the Potomac. Then returns to northern Maryland/southern Pennsylvania, to deal with any Union army that may show up to try and relieve Washington, and wait for a political settlement.
What next? With the Administration presumed under siege in Washington, who exactly in the rest of Union has the authority to pick the commander of a force to relieve Washington or otherwise oppose Lee?
The draft riots in NY go on as per OTL, but the disappearance of Union army would give the matter a new urgency. Will New Yorkers want to enlist in the relief army, or will they disown the Federal administration, and send to negotiate for recognition of Confederacy and its gains?
The strategic advantages of Union were not all concentrated at the battlefield.
The Union achieved a big victory when they were able, at Appomatox, to trap Lee´s army retreating from Richmond. Many people at the time hoped that Lee´s army could be trapped behind flooded Potomac retreating from Gettysburg.
Suppose that Lee achieves a clear victory at Gettysburg and in a few days, manages to get the retreating Union forces in a trap, short of food and ammunition.
A few thousands manage to flee without their stores or their wounded and get the bad news to the rest of Union, a few thousands die trying to do the same, maybe some try to fight again and a few thousands die in fight, but Lee at a stroke has tens of thousands of Union prisoners of war.
Grant did already win at Vicksburg, and there are other intact Union armies, but those are some distance away yet.
Maryland has been under military Union rule for two years. But Lee is not far away from the head of Chesapeake Bay. So Lee marches south through the western shore of Maryland, liberates Baltimore, Annapolis etc..
Washington has been fortified for two years and there are 10 000 men or so in garrison. Lee cannot take that on the stride. So, he posts an observing force of sufficient size to prevent a serious breakout, and installs coastal artillery batteries and mines down the Potomac. Then returns to northern Maryland/southern Pennsylvania, to deal with any Union army that may show up to try and relieve Washington, and wait for a political settlement.
What next? With the Administration presumed under siege in Washington, who exactly in the rest of Union has the authority to pick the commander of a force to relieve Washington or otherwise oppose Lee?
The draft riots in NY go on as per OTL, but the disappearance of Union army would give the matter a new urgency. Will New Yorkers want to enlist in the relief army, or will they disown the Federal administration, and send to negotiate for recognition of Confederacy and its gains?