Maximum Emishi Success?

What is the maximum level of success that the Emishi people can have? Can they maintain their somewhat independence until present day? Can they unify the Japanese islands and conquer out a massive Empire? My thought is that the best POD for this would be for Emishi to inflict a winnowing defeat on Jimmu, thus the Japanese never see the Emishi lands as "theirs" and extinguish the Emishi national identity. However, I cannot see the Emishi taking all of Honshu, there are too many other Japanese there to allow that. I could see an Emishi nation with a few colonies, but overall having about the same prestige of OTL Belgium.
 
My understanding is that the Emishi in historic times were too few and too disorganized to resist the incursioms of the Japanese state in the long term - not unlike the position of many Zomian peoples with regards to the precocious Han Chinese.
 
My understanding is that the Emishi in historic times were too few and too disorganized to resist the incursioms of the Japanese state in the long term - not unlike the position of many Zomian peoples with regards to the precocious Han Chinese.

But I mean, even among them, Tibet is considered by a lot of people to be "Zomian" but is still a real force in China, even if in exile.
 

Benevolent

Banned
What is the maximum level of success that the Emishi people can have? Can they maintain their somewhat independence until present day? Can they unify the Japanese islands and conquer out a massive Empire? My thought is that the best POD for this would be for Emishi to inflict a winnowing defeat on Jimmu, thus the Japanese never see the Emishi lands as "theirs" and extinguish the Emishi national identity. However, I cannot see the Emishi taking all of Honshu, there are too many other Japanese there to allow that. I could see an Emishi nation with a few colonies, but overall having about the same prestige of OTL Belgium.

If you haven't already looked into the Satsumon culture, it could be the basis of an Emishi ethnostate centered around barley, millet and chestnut and horsechestnut aboriculture.

I don't think it can outlast into the modern day unless they somehow made it to the Nanban period and continued western trade through the Edo period supplying weapons and technologies to atleast make it to idk the Meiji but at that time seeing as Imperial Japan may have more of a market Westerners might turn on Emishi.

Once we get into the 20th century things get murky for me so hopefully this was helpful to some extent
 
If you haven't already looked into the Satsumon culture, it could be the basis of an Emishi ethnostate centered around barley, millet and chestnut and horsechestnut aboriculture.

I don't think it can outlast into the modern day unless they somehow made it to the Nanban period and continued western trade through the Edo period supplying weapons and technologies to atleast make it to idk the Meiji but at that time seeing as Imperial Japan may have more of a market Westerners might turn on Emishi.

Once we get into the 20th century things get murky for me so hopefully this was helpful to some extent

I mean, the Portuguese and Dutch and whomever gets to Japan could see Japan proper as a sort of slave source, like the Portuguese did when they met up there, while they viewed the Emishi as too far out of the way to enslave and have gold so they'd maybe sell guns and other tech to them.
 
The Emishi lasted a long time without getting subjugated, so I think the best bet would be to have some sort of *Warring States* period in Yamataikoku (Yamato-occupied parts of Honshu) to prevent political unification. It's still likely that individual nobles will do their best to expand their demesne into Emishi territory. Without central government support they're unlikely to be particularly successful.

The original form of samurai, that is mounted archers, seems to have been a direct response to the Emishi tradition of horse archery. So butterflying away that tactic of possible could also help, since only after that change did the Yamato seem to start having success against the Emishi.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
It's still likely that individual nobles will do their best to expand their demesne into Emishi territory. Without central government support they're unlikely to be particularly successful.

I'm not sure that this is true. Northern Fujiwara / Abe family/ other northern house has great success against Emishi without Kyoto support. one could even argue that Samurai culture is developed when fighting Emishi, many northern house has strong military tradition and wildly successful in fighting during civil war.

Warring States period actually could speed up the conquest of the Tohoku region. Chinese resettlement of Yangtze happen during after collapse of Han. instability in Kyoto could make mass refugee population to Tokyo plain.

I think comparison with Han-Zomia is true. Japanese simply had winning combination of culture (agriculture/government/military) that is unstoppable. Emishi is not only one who defeated, Kumaso and Tsuchigumo people are also defeated. Even Emishi better iron working, horsemanship and archery failed to insure their survival.

any change massive enough to change this dynamic would simply make Emishi so different, that no longer recognisable as Emishi. and probaby would need BCE POD.
 
I'm not sure that this is true. Northern Fujiwara / Abe family/ other northern house has great success against Emishi without Kyoto support. one could even argue that Samurai culture is developed when fighting Emishi, many northern house has strong military tradition and wildly successful in fighting during civil war.

Warring States period actually could speed up the conquest of the Tohoku region. Chinese resettlement of Yangtze happen during after collapse of Han. instability in Kyoto could make mass refugee population to Tokyo plain.

I think comparison with Han-Zomia is true. Japanese simply had winning combination of culture (agriculture/government/military) that is unstoppable. Emishi is not only one who defeated, Kumaso and Tsuchigumo people are also defeated. Even Emishi better iron working, horsemanship and archery failed to insure their survival.

any change massive enough to change this dynamic would simply make Emishi so different, that no longer recognisable as Emishi. and probaby would need BCE POD.

So what you are saying is that the only way to keep the Emishi in power is to somehow have the Yamato not develop?
 
eh, probably. even then other immigrant from korea could very well overwhelm Japanese native tribes.

The Emishi fought the Yamato state to a standstill, at least for several centuries, until the change in tactics leading to the Samurai. They also adopted agriculture.

Basically, they weren't as far apart from the Yamato as some seem to think. They only weren't as organized. Overcome this before the Japanese successfully adopt Samurai tactics and then you have a stalemate that could harden into two separate cultures. An Emishi "Scotland" is not unreasonable. Perhaps more?

Also remember that Yamato, while Korean descended, was just one tribe that faced earlier rivals like Izumo. Keep them entangled longer with such rivals and perhaps they do not accomplish as much?
 
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