Maximum Caporetto

OTL Caporetto was a smashing success for the Central Powers -- it got them almost a quarter of a million captives and crippled Italy. The French and British had to massively reinforce the Italian front, using troops from the west that they could simply not spare. Italy was unable to undertake any further offensives until the final months of the war, when Austria was collapsing internally anyway.

But in the end, Caporetto accomplished surprisingly little. It clawed off a few thousand square km of northeast Italy, but the region in question had no large towns or manufacturing centers and was strategically pretty meaningless. The Italian commander was replaced by a more competent one; the Italian government fell, but the new government was even more committed to the war. And as long as Italy stayed in the war, Austrian troops could not be moved somewhere useful.

So: can we make Caporetto into an even more smashing victory? One that actually affects the last year of the war, instead of being strategically meaningless?

OTL the Central Powers ran up against two major problems. One was geographical: as the Italian armies collapsed, they retreated towards a natural bottleneck, where the front contracted to favor the defense. The region between Padua and Venice was also unusually rich in railroads, allowing the defender to exploit internal lines of communication. And in that part of northern Italy, parallel rivers run east-west down from the Apennines to the Adriatic, each one digging out its own valley, resulting in an enormous natural series of trenches directly across the Central Powers' line of advance. See:

http://www.firstworldwar.com/maps/graphics/maps_43_italy_caporetto_(1600).jpg

The other problem was that the CP were simply not prepared for such a rapid advance. It would have been striking even on the more fluid eastern front; in Italy, where the front lines had been even more firmly fixed than in France, it was simply astonishing. The CP logistics began breaking down after the first week, and by the end of the battle they had almost collapsed.

We can't fix the first problem, but we could maybe fix the second one. It's unlikely, but not quite ASB territory. Let's say the CPs pay just a little more attention to the extreme scenario, and reach the Piave River still with a bit of reserve and the ability to move shells and equipment to the front.

Realistically, how far could they get? British and French reinforcements were pouring in by the second week of November, so it's not like the weary CP soldiers are going to charge over the mountains to Rome. But I could just maybe see them reaching the Verona-Padua-Venice line.

Say it's so [handwave]. Venice falls -- it can be bombarded by artillery from the shore, and Allied naval superiority doesn't really apply at the tippety-top of the Adriatic. Padua falls. Verona does not, but it's just behind the front, and is devastated by shelling from the highlands to the north. The front now runs from the marshes south of Venice to somewhere on the eastern shore of Lake Garda.

Tactically, this looks like a somewhat better front for the CPs -- holding the hills around the lake on their right flank means any attack on that sector is literally heading uphill. So the effective front is less than 50 km long, which means they can defend it more easily.

Otherwise, though... does this knock Italy out of the war? Almost certainly not. Drain more Allied resources out of the west? Probably not.

So I suspect it ends up being much the same as iOTL. Hm.



Doug M.
 
If Caporetto happens earlier on in WWI, wouldn't it result in a bigger chance of knocking Italy out of the war?

If Falkenhayn had been sacked earlier, you might have had no Verdun-offensive, but a Italian offensive a full year earlier then Caporetto instead.

Still, it would require the Germans and AustroHungarians actually working together and using their main advantage, internal lines, to the max, so I don't know how likely that is. :rolleyes:

Alistair Horne discusses this in his second book of his trilogy of FrancoGerman relations culminating in 1870-Verdun-summer 1940 and considers it one of the biggest chances the Central Powers had of victory in WWI.
 
If Caporetto happens earlier on in WWI, wouldn't it result in a bigger chance of knocking Italy out of the war?

If Falkenhayn had been sacked earlier, you might have had no Verdun-offensive, but a Italian offensive a full year earlier then Caporetto instead.

Still, it would require the Germans and AustroHungarians actually working together and using their main advantage, internal lines, to the max, so I don't know how likely that is. :rolleyes:

Alistair Horne discusses this in his second book of his trilogy of FrancoGerman relations culminating in 1870-Verdun-summer 1940 and considers it one of the biggest chances the Central Powers had of victory in WWI.

I'm a bit doubtful on this. Firstly, without Verdun, is Germany going to be terribly interested in turning their troops on Italy, rather than deploying them along the primary fronts. Not to mention the enormous difference that no Verdun will have, on the western front at least. Now, if the Germans want to weigh in on the Asiago offensive, they can wreak all sorts of havoc, but the Austrians haven't asked for help, and without Hutier tactics they will be slowed somewhat once the Italians get their act together.
 

The Sandman

Banned
Why not have the Germans pull far more troops off of the Eastern Front as Russia collapses in mid-1917, instead of sending them ever further eastward to pressure the Bolsheviks? Even if those extra troops can't be used in Italy (and given the narrowness of the front, I'm going to assume they can't), their presence on the Western Front might be enough to either prevent Allied intervention to save Italy or (more likely) buy an extra week or two as Britain and France dither over how many troops they can afford to send.

Also, have Cadorna take longer to realize just how untenable the Italian position is and order a retreat. That might be enough to allow the Austrians and Germans to completely destroy the Italian Second and Third Armies during the first week of November. The Italian Fourth Army might be able to make it out of the trap, but would be badly damaged in the process.
 
I'm a bit doubtful on this. Firstly, without Verdun, is Germany going to be terribly interested in turning their troops on Italy, rather than deploying them along the primary fronts. Not to mention the enormous difference that no Verdun will have, on the western front at least. Now, if the Germans want to weigh in on the Asiago offensive, they can wreak all sorts of havoc, but the Austrians haven't asked for help, and without Hutier tactics they will be slowed somewhat once the Italians get their act together.

Under cautious Falkenhayn there were little means for an offensive. For example several divisions were kept in reserve in case the British would pull of a miracle and attack winter/spring of 1915/1916, which would be difficult for them.

So that leaves Germany with what, two or three infantrycorps for an offensive?
That's not nearly enough to win WWI on the primary fronts in the West or East at that time AFAIK.
However, if they use those divisions in Italy it might be enough to completely turn that front around.

As I mentioned in my last post, especially under Falkenhayn - who allegedly held the Austrians in contempt more so than any other German officer - it's not likely for him to do so.
Even more so because he's a 'Westerner'.
 

Deleted member 1487

After the battle there was recriminations by both the Austro-Hungarians and Germans that the other had failed to keep up their end of the offensive, which let the Italian 3rd army escape. Had the CPs effectively coordinated (as at this time there were tensions between both powers preventing full cooperation) there is the possibility that the Italian 2nd and 3rd armies would have been taken, increasing the losses significantly more and increasing the pressure on the Italian government to cut a deal. There well may be that chance.
If not then the Italian 4th army is left holding the Piave by itself and in December when the Austro-German forces renewed their attacks, they might then breach that line. From there the Italians could pull back much farther in a panic, though there are no guarantees. OTL the Germans pulled out their forces in January after these failures, so here, if there are successes on the Piave, the could remain and an earlier version of the 1918 offensives could be launched against Italy to keep Austria-Hungary in the game and knock out Italy. From that point the 1918 offensives could be launched but with greater morale effect if Italy is knocked out of the war or hobbled enough to allow TTL's verision Piave offensive in June to deal the death blow.
 
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