OTL Caporetto was a smashing success for the Central Powers -- it got them almost a quarter of a million captives and crippled Italy. The French and British had to massively reinforce the Italian front, using troops from the west that they could simply not spare. Italy was unable to undertake any further offensives until the final months of the war, when Austria was collapsing internally anyway.
But in the end, Caporetto accomplished surprisingly little. It clawed off a few thousand square km of northeast Italy, but the region in question had no large towns or manufacturing centers and was strategically pretty meaningless. The Italian commander was replaced by a more competent one; the Italian government fell, but the new government was even more committed to the war. And as long as Italy stayed in the war, Austrian troops could not be moved somewhere useful.
So: can we make Caporetto into an even more smashing victory? One that actually affects the last year of the war, instead of being strategically meaningless?
OTL the Central Powers ran up against two major problems. One was geographical: as the Italian armies collapsed, they retreated towards a natural bottleneck, where the front contracted to favor the defense. The region between Padua and Venice was also unusually rich in railroads, allowing the defender to exploit internal lines of communication. And in that part of northern Italy, parallel rivers run east-west down from the Apennines to the Adriatic, each one digging out its own valley, resulting in an enormous natural series of trenches directly across the Central Powers' line of advance. See:
http://www.firstworldwar.com/maps/graphics/maps_43_italy_caporetto_(1600).jpg
The other problem was that the CP were simply not prepared for such a rapid advance. It would have been striking even on the more fluid eastern front; in Italy, where the front lines had been even more firmly fixed than in France, it was simply astonishing. The CP logistics began breaking down after the first week, and by the end of the battle they had almost collapsed.
We can't fix the first problem, but we could maybe fix the second one. It's unlikely, but not quite ASB territory. Let's say the CPs pay just a little more attention to the extreme scenario, and reach the Piave River still with a bit of reserve and the ability to move shells and equipment to the front.
Realistically, how far could they get? British and French reinforcements were pouring in by the second week of November, so it's not like the weary CP soldiers are going to charge over the mountains to Rome. But I could just maybe see them reaching the Verona-Padua-Venice line.
Say it's so [handwave]. Venice falls -- it can be bombarded by artillery from the shore, and Allied naval superiority doesn't really apply at the tippety-top of the Adriatic. Padua falls. Verona does not, but it's just behind the front, and is devastated by shelling from the highlands to the north. The front now runs from the marshes south of Venice to somewhere on the eastern shore of Lake Garda.
Tactically, this looks like a somewhat better front for the CPs -- holding the hills around the lake on their right flank means any attack on that sector is literally heading uphill. So the effective front is less than 50 km long, which means they can defend it more easily.
Otherwise, though... does this knock Italy out of the war? Almost certainly not. Drain more Allied resources out of the west? Probably not.
So I suspect it ends up being much the same as iOTL. Hm.
Doug M.
But in the end, Caporetto accomplished surprisingly little. It clawed off a few thousand square km of northeast Italy, but the region in question had no large towns or manufacturing centers and was strategically pretty meaningless. The Italian commander was replaced by a more competent one; the Italian government fell, but the new government was even more committed to the war. And as long as Italy stayed in the war, Austrian troops could not be moved somewhere useful.
So: can we make Caporetto into an even more smashing victory? One that actually affects the last year of the war, instead of being strategically meaningless?
OTL the Central Powers ran up against two major problems. One was geographical: as the Italian armies collapsed, they retreated towards a natural bottleneck, where the front contracted to favor the defense. The region between Padua and Venice was also unusually rich in railroads, allowing the defender to exploit internal lines of communication. And in that part of northern Italy, parallel rivers run east-west down from the Apennines to the Adriatic, each one digging out its own valley, resulting in an enormous natural series of trenches directly across the Central Powers' line of advance. See:
http://www.firstworldwar.com/maps/graphics/maps_43_italy_caporetto_(1600).jpg
The other problem was that the CP were simply not prepared for such a rapid advance. It would have been striking even on the more fluid eastern front; in Italy, where the front lines had been even more firmly fixed than in France, it was simply astonishing. The CP logistics began breaking down after the first week, and by the end of the battle they had almost collapsed.
We can't fix the first problem, but we could maybe fix the second one. It's unlikely, but not quite ASB territory. Let's say the CPs pay just a little more attention to the extreme scenario, and reach the Piave River still with a bit of reserve and the ability to move shells and equipment to the front.
Realistically, how far could they get? British and French reinforcements were pouring in by the second week of November, so it's not like the weary CP soldiers are going to charge over the mountains to Rome. But I could just maybe see them reaching the Verona-Padua-Venice line.
Say it's so [handwave]. Venice falls -- it can be bombarded by artillery from the shore, and Allied naval superiority doesn't really apply at the tippety-top of the Adriatic. Padua falls. Verona does not, but it's just behind the front, and is devastated by shelling from the highlands to the north. The front now runs from the marshes south of Venice to somewhere on the eastern shore of Lake Garda.
Tactically, this looks like a somewhat better front for the CPs -- holding the hills around the lake on their right flank means any attack on that sector is literally heading uphill. So the effective front is less than 50 km long, which means they can defend it more easily.
Otherwise, though... does this knock Italy out of the war? Almost certainly not. Drain more Allied resources out of the west? Probably not.
So I suspect it ends up being much the same as iOTL. Hm.
Doug M.