Maximize Italian Gains During WWII

[Green Painting]

OTL Mussolini did want to maximize Italian gains, he planned to wait for both sides to exhaust, and then he interferes and become the "judge" of Europe's fate, so that he can sit on the negotiation table as a victor with a few thousand casualties.

With the benefit of hindsight, what do you think Italy could do to have maximum gains from the war?

My thought is that Italy stays neutral, and trade with the belligerents

 

[Geordie]

My thought is that Italy stays neutral, and trade with the belligerents

That's certainly the best starting point. It protects both the North and East African possessions. It also keeps the Italian merchant marine moving, the economy ticking over, and trade flourishes with both sides. OTL, the UK had ordered some Italian planes for the RAF and I also think the RN had plans to use Italian engines in their motorboats. Additionally, Italy can make lots of money acting as a blockade dodger for Germany. At all times, keep diplomatic channels open with both Germany and the Allies. Any hints regarding territorial compensation for neutrality and supplies are to be encouraged. Choicest morsels are those shaped like Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunisia, Djibouti, British Somaliliand, but any other suggestions are welcome.

If Mussolini waits until everybody else is thoroughly distracted (possibly Britain in the Far East, Germany balls deep in Russia) then an attack on Yugoslavia would be a good shout. If you want an Italian Sphere of Influence too, then this could possibly be done with an alliance with Budapest and Sofia. Yugoslavia may not be the easiest to digest, but if they do, then eyes probably get drawn towards Athens. Threatening Greece depends on what the UK are up to. However, it may be that they decide to join this little Balkan Alliance of right wing countries anyway...

Then the final, most troublesome part. Keep decent forces in the Alps, watching for the two forces to reach total exhausted stalemate, or for one side to irrevocably gain the upper hand. At this point, either offer to arbitrate, or join the side that can't lose, in order to reap the rewards. Why is this problematic? Well, that's what Mussolini thought he'd done.

 

[John Farson]

Simple answer: pdf27's A Blunted Sickle. Regardless of how the war proceeds, Italy will ultimately keep everything they've already got in 1940, at least until decolonization gets into full steam later in the century. I'd say that's a best case scenario for them.

 

[I want to learn]

Do the war-profiteering thing, get some colonial consessions, rough up Yugoslavia and/or Greece, get some shares in the Suez Canal, keep pre-war influence in Spain and profit off of rebuilding their economy, and join the fight against the Nazis just long enough to get a solid amount of Marshal Plan aid. Becoming the protector of neutral Romania or other Balkan countries against the USSR like in "A Blunted Sickle" might be nice too. Sit back and wait for Libya to start producing black gold.


Although if I was actually trying to get the absolute best for Italy, instead of wanking the size of their empire, I'd say the best thing possible for them is to loose as fast as possible, getting rid of costly and later bloody colonies, and then to be rebuilt by the USA. Not that far from OTL, really.

For the lulz, have Italy take in the Jews who would otherwise die in the Holocaust. Either get Palestine as a bribe for neutrality or give the Jews a homeland somewhere else in the Italian empire and gain another dedicated puppet state.

Additional marginal idea: Vichy France joins the Axis and Italy picks up some of its colonies.

Downright ASB idea: Switzerland joins the Axis and Italy gets the Italian speaking bits.

 

[Green Painting]

Although if I was actually trying to get the absolute best for Italy, instead of wanking the size of their empire, I'd say the best thing possible for them is to loose as fast as possible, getting rid of costly and later bloody colonies, and then to be rebuilt by the USA. Not that far from OTL, really.

Let go everything else, try to colonize/Christianize Libya? It's a very small country anyway.

 

[I want to learn]

Let go everything else, try to colonize/Christianize Libya? It's a very small country anyway.

It didn't work for the French in Algeria, but you should ask someone who knows more about North Africa than me.

 

[Geordie]

It didn't work for the French in Algeria, but you should ask someone who knows more about North Africa than me.

I've seen it stated repeatedly on this site that, with continued Italian control and immigration, the "Libya as the Fourth Shore" concept was quite feasible. Balbo was working on improving infrastructure before his death, which should be butterflied away with the lack of a war. My knowledge isn't sufficient to categorically assert that it would work, but others have said that if Libya was held until they found oil in the 50s, it could have been held as another part of Italy.

 

[Dustin]

It didn't work for the French in Algeria, but you should ask someone who knows more about North Africa than me.

Algeria had a much larger population. Ethnic Italians were coming close to becoming the largest group before the war IOTL so it's not ASB for Italian settlement of Libya to continue, especially once they find the oil.

 

[lukedalton]

It didn't work for the French in Algeria, but you should ask someone who knows more about North Africa than me.

The big difference is the number of the local population, it was low in the beginning and the initial project was to transform Libya in a settler colony, so emigration was greatly encouraged and by the start of the war IRC 13% of the population was italian so without distruption and continued emigration italians can become the majority.
For the other colonies, Somalia can be discharged, Ethiopia will be the big problem with the continued insurgency and the regime will be not very happy to leave as it was an 'imperial conquest' and Eritrea can become like OTL French Guyana easily

 

[Kingfish]

The native population of Lybia wasn't very high and there was a large and growing number of Italian settlers in the large coastal cities. Sure, there will probably be some sort of "Lybian Intifada", but if Balbo remains governor he should be able to negotiate with the rebel leaders. The rest of the colonial empire will likely be droped, especially Ethiopia due to foreign pressure.

 

[Green Painting]

The big difference is the number of the local population, it was low in the beginning and the initial project was to transform Libya in a settler colony, so emigration was greatly encouraged and by the start of the war IRC 13% of the population was italian so without distruption and continued emigration italians can become the majority.
For the other colonies, Somalia can be discharged, Ethiopia will be the big problem with the continued insurgency and the regime will be not very happy to leave as it was an 'imperial conquest' and Eritrea can become like OTL French Guyana easily

http://www.populstat.info/Africa/libyac.htm

Look at how the population grew, it might end up to be a second Lebanon,

 

[Pellegrino]

Italy stays neutral officially.

If the coup in Yugoslavia still happens maybe Italy makes a secret deal with Hitler and they pull a Poland on Yugoslavia. This gives Italy Dalmatia, Kosovo, and parts of Slovenia.

Allies are pissed, but not to the point of going to war.

Italy ignores Greece and decides to try and mollify the UK and France, recognizing that they pushed the envelope as far as it will go.

Balbo decides to open up Libya for immigration for European refugees. He sees the potential in having millions of Europeans settle in the lightly populated colony.

This gives Italy some valuable PR with the Allies as it gives safe haven to many fleeing Nazi terror.

With Italy neutral, Romania and Hungary decide to sit out on the invasion of Russia. Germany goes it alone.

As a result, the poorly equipped Romanian 3rd and 4th Army is not protecting the northern line at Stalingrad when Operation Uranus kicks off. As a result, the Germans are able to prevent Operation Uranus from being a sucess and they are not encircled.

This obviously doesn't change the big picture for Stalingrad. The Soviets still eventually defeat the Germans. But as they are not able to encircle them, the battle is longer and bloodier as the Soviets are forced to push foward against the German army in Stalingrad itself.

The Russian advance is not as sucessful, but the writing is still on the wall for Italy: Germany will lose.

Italy starts to tilt towards the allies, prompting Germany to invade Italy sometime in late 1943, early 1944.

Allied military aid into Italy and a flood of British troops (coupled with the natural defensive line that is the northern Alps) allow the Italians to halt the German advance early.

A new Stalingrad event occurs in the USSR as the German army in the East is overrun. Perhaps in Stalingrad itself.

From there, the war proceeds much like OTL, except the Italian army is better equiped and acts as a major force in pushing north towards Germany itself. Soviets perhaps don't reach Berlin first, and Italy is able to get major concessions at Yalta.

 

[Ivir Baggins]

If the Germans don't have the Romanians on the Don, then they don't have any troops there period. Romanian, Hungarian, and Italian troops allowed Blau to go ahead.

Also, where would Germany find the troops to attack Italy in winter '43? They'd be much better served by simply holding the Alps instead of trying to advance through them.

 

[Soren]

Italy stays neutral officially.



With Italy neutral, Romania and Hungary decide to sit out on the invasion of Russia. Germany goes it alone.

As a result, the poorly equipped Romanian 3rd and 4th Army is not protecting the northern line at Stalingrad when Operation Uranus kicks off. As a result, the Germans are able to prevent Operation Uranus from being a sucess and they are not encircled.

But without the Italian, Hungarian & Romanian contingents on the Eastern front where does Germany find the troops to protect their flanks Stalingrad? I realise the DAK & Balkan occupation troops are freed up but this still leaves a deficit.
& Ninja'd!

 

[Green Painting]

But without the Italian, Hungarian & Romanian contingents on the Eastern front where does Germany find the troops to protect their flanks Stalingrad? I realise the DAK & Balkan occupation troops are freed up but this still leaves a deficit.
& Ninja'd!

They also didn't need to waste troops to protect North Africa for the Italians.

 

[Geordie]

They also didn't need to waste troops to protect North Africa for the Italians.

The number of Hungarian, Romanian and Italian forces in Russia dwarfs the German forces in PAA...

 

[Green Painting]

The number of Hungarian, Romanian and Italian forces in Russia dwarfs the German forces in PAA...

Okay...

But Italian neutrality doesn't necessarily prevent Hungarian and Romanian participation. So you need to find substitute for Italians only. Maybe the lack of Italian 8th Army forced the führer to treat the Ukrainians better?

 

[Pellegrino]

If the Germans don't have the Romanians on the Don, then they don't have any troops there period. Romanian, Hungarian, and Italian troops allowed Blau to go ahead.

Also, where would Germany find the troops to attack Italy in winter '43? They'd be much better served by simply holding the Alps instead of trying to advance through them.

But without the Italian, Hungarian & Romanian contingents on the Eastern front where does Germany find the troops to protect their flanks Stalingrad? I realise the DAK & Balkan occupation troops are freed up but this still leaves a deficit.
& Ninja'd!

I don't think the lack of Hungarian troops or Romanian troops convinces Hitler to abandon Barbarossa, although I agree, the prospects of reaching Stalingrad without them go way down. I think Operation Barbarossa would start much like it did in OTL but there is a good chance it would get bogged down much sooner, with the possibility that Stalingrad is replaced with, say Kiev. But assuming they reach Stalingrad, they German line, though of smaller manpower, will be pretty much equal with all of its parts. You won't have a a soft spot at the north that will allow the Soviets to encircle the Germans. They will have to push them out head on.

And I can see Hitler ordering an invasion of Italy if it appeared obvious that Italy was getting way to close to the allies. Perhaps if Italy agreed to cut off selling to the Germans under pressure of the Allies. Hitler made his dumbest decision late in the war, and this would fit with that trend.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Ja. Welcoming any and all Jews from Europe would be a good idea. Jews did 'well' in Italy ( at least compared to Germany (duh) or Vichy France). Accepting them and shipping them off to Libya would be a win-win for mussolini.