I've been contemplating a TL where Franz Joseph is successfully assassinated in 1853, leading to Maximilian being crowned as Emperor of Austria. Now, my problem is that I don't really know how he would handle Italo-Austrian relations. Given that both he and Cavour were liberals, I have no problems seeing them forge an alliance, but since Austria owned a good chunk of Northern Italy, I'm not sure how this could be properly pulled off without pissing off either everyone in Piedmont or everyone in Austria. Plus, even if an Austro-Italian alliance was created, how would the Crimean War be handled? Since the Austrian Empire was basically saved by Russian intervention in the 1848 alliance, I can't see many people (especially aristocrats) being amused by Austria declaring war on Russia.
Maximilian von Habsburg and Italy
- Thread starter Midnight-Blue766
- Start date
Max was relatively sympathetic to Italian doleances in Lombardy-Veneto, but no amount of Austrian concessions would ever appease Italian nationalists. They objected Austrian rule in itself, out of its being Austrian rather than its being repressive.
Of course, a less repressive Austrian rule would get some people on Austrian side. But by 1853, Austria had depleted much of the credit among Italians with her previous repressive policies, the executions in Belfiore in December 1852 being arguably the final straw.
And Piedmont would covet Lombardy regardless and exploit local patriots to that effect, so an alliance would be problematic. However, a war with Russia is not totally out of the cards, and Austria might consider two restive, albeit very rich, provinces, a price worth paying for ousting the Russian threat on the lower Danube conclusively (that was more or less Cesare Balbo's idea, but I am skeptical about it working).
Of course, a less repressive Austrian rule would get some people on Austrian side. But by 1853, Austria had depleted much of the credit among Italians with her previous repressive policies, the executions in Belfiore in December 1852 being arguably the final straw.
And Piedmont would covet Lombardy regardless and exploit local patriots to that effect, so an alliance would be problematic. However, a war with Russia is not totally out of the cards, and Austria might consider two restive, albeit very rich, provinces, a price worth paying for ousting the Russian threat on the lower Danube conclusively (that was more or less Cesare Balbo's idea, but I am skeptical about it working).
I'm well aware of the fact that most people in Austrian Italy resented Habsburg Rule; in fact, in my "drafts", Maximilian was going to sell Lombardy-Veneto to Piedmont for a large sum of money, that he uses to modernise the Austrian Army (as well as all other infrastructure), before declaring war on Russia. However, my problem is that I'm guessing that a lot of people in Austria probably wouldn't be too happy about Max selling a big chunk of their empire, even if they get fancy new textbooks and rifles in return. In addition, since the Russians helped Austria defeat the Hungarian rebels, would people be happy about a war between the Hapsburgs and Romanovs? And even if Max succeeds in taking and consolidatng the Danube Principalities, would nationalism just cause the Empire to blow up in his face, even if he tries federalising it?
1) Piedmont would not ever be able to buy Lombardy alone, not to mention Veneto. I am not sure, but I gather that Lombard GDP alone would be an integer multiple of the whole Kingdom of Sardinia's one.
Lombardy was by far the most developed part of Italy in 1853, and Piedmont, while not that very far off, was still remarkably behind to my knowledge. Piedmont buying Lombardy-veneto is somewhat like Greece buying Turkish Thrace and Western Anatolia nowadays.
2) Most people who matter in Austria will be OK with war with Russia is Russia is threatening vital interests (and the Danube IS a vital interest).
This might serve some internal purpose in reconciling the Hungarians.
There would be opposition, but it's doable.
3)Nationalism is going to be a problem for Austria no matter what with a POD in 1853. That beast had been unleashed already.
Hmmm... I'll need to think here. Maybe Max decides to grant independence to Lombardy-Veneto (though with himself as King), which Cavour respects, but Garibaldi (and the rest of L-V) end up resenting it and takes the country, along with Rome? The question is how to make independent L-V a Good Thing from Piedmont's view.
EXCELLENT!
Sorry, let me rephrase my question: ITTL, Maximilian attempts to federalise the Austrian Empire by turning it into the Empire of Central Europe (working title; any better suggestions), which is basically an earlier version of the planned United States of Greater Austria. But given that his OTL attempts at compromise between two vastly different groups has been met with less than success (see: the Mexican Empire), would it just end up falling apart as both the Austrian aristocrats, pissed at their sudden loss of power, and the Nationalists, pissed by the fact that they feel that not enough was given to them, start railing for his blood? Or is nationalism early enough for it to be satisfied with local autonomy?
Sorry, let me rephrase my question: ITTL, Maximilian attempts to federalise the Austrian Empire by turning it into the Empire of Central Europe (working title; any better suggestions), which is basically an earlier version of the planned United States of Greater Austria. But given that his OTL attempts at compromise between two vastly different groups has been met with less than success (see: the Mexican Empire), would it just end up falling apart as both the Austrian aristocrats, pissed at their sudden loss of power, and the Nationalists, pissed by the fact that they feel that not enough was given to them, start railing for his blood? Or is nationalism early enough for it to be satisfied with local autonomy?[/QUOTE]
In my very humble and not incredibly informed opinion, for anything like this to sort of work he would need a _massive_ level of democratization. Think about a universal male suffrage sort of thing.
The point is that nationalism did not emerge uniformly among ethnic groups of the Empire. It was well-developed among Italians, Germans, Hungarians and Poles, fairly active among Czechs and Croats, embryonic (but already underway) for most of the other groups such as Slovenes, Romanians, Serbs, Slovaks, and "Ukrainians" (quote marks because they were generally called Ruthenians at that point and often considered as somewhat different from Ukrainians in the Russian Empire, though it was more complicated). And I think there were other national movements as well, though the above were by far the most significant.
So, social developments may make some regions more or less restive relative to OTL. A peaceful resolution of the Italian issue can have all sort of consequences, either inducing other national groups to try and force their views through the center, Ausgleich-like, or having them consider the untried might of the Austrian army (undefeated here, and probably reformed after a less-than-expected-though-still-succesful performance in the *Crimean War).
In my very humble and not incredibly informed opinion, for anything like this to sort of work he would need a _massive_ level of democratization. Think about a universal male suffrage sort of thing.
The point is that nationalism did not emerge uniformly among ethnic groups of the Empire. It was well-developed among Italians, Germans, Hungarians and Poles, fairly active among Czechs and Croats, embryonic (but already underway) for most of the other groups such as Slovenes, Romanians, Serbs, Slovaks, and "Ukrainians" (quote marks because they were generally called Ruthenians at that point and often considered as somewhat different from Ukrainians in the Russian Empire, though it was more complicated). And I think there were other national movements as well, though the above were by far the most significant.
So, social developments may make some regions more or less restive relative to OTL. A peaceful resolution of the Italian issue can have all sort of consequences, either inducing other national groups to try and force their views through the center, Ausgleich-like, or having them consider the untried might of the Austrian army (undefeated here, and probably reformed after a less-than-expected-though-still-succesful performance in the *Crimean War).
With respect only to the Name, I have always been a Fan of "The Danubian Federation". In a Universe where they also annex the Romanian Principalities they will control pretty much the entire Danube too. If they managed to also absorb the South German States that would give them control of the entire Danube River, but I'm 99.99% sure that doing that would result in the entire rest of Europe pulling a Will Smith on them.
With respect to Venetia, remember that Max was a Naval Man, he's going to want to keep Venetia, and probably expand the infrastructure there to reform and modernize and Austrianize the Navy.
With respect to Venetia, remember that Max was a Naval Man, he's going to want to keep Venetia, and probably expand the infrastructure there to reform and modernize and Austrianize the Navy.
He's going to want to keep it, but doing so would be recipe for trouble no matter what, and he'd be probably smart enough to realize it.
It can go several ways, of course, but a large majority of those Venetians whose opinion matters will want the Austrians out, period.
Lombardy-Venetia is a kingdom in union with the Habsburg crown
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Lombardy-Venetia
In OTL, Max was Viceroy of the kingdom for his brother, the Emperor, from 1857 so in any TL where he becomes emperor in 1853 he has not had this Italian experience.
I seriously doubt that Vienna would ever SELL any part of their realm, and certainly not an industrial powerhouse like Lombardy, or for that matter Venetia which they had been trying for centuries to annex. It just wouldn't make sense in their world view.
To a degree, you also don't need to "federalise" Austria, since at this point, albeit less than pre-1848, it is already something of a federal union under one crown.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Lombardy-Venetia
In OTL, Max was Viceroy of the kingdom for his brother, the Emperor, from 1857 so in any TL where he becomes emperor in 1853 he has not had this Italian experience.
I seriously doubt that Vienna would ever SELL any part of their realm, and certainly not an industrial powerhouse like Lombardy, or for that matter Venetia which they had been trying for centuries to annex. It just wouldn't make sense in their world view.
To a degree, you also don't need to "federalise" Austria, since at this point, albeit less than pre-1848, it is already something of a federal union under one crown.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
I've done some brain-storming, and here's what I came up with in regards to Italy: Maximilian initially approaches Cavour with an alliance, but he turns it down due to the fact that he, well, owns half of Padania, but since Max and Napoleon allied in the Crimean War (called the Russian War ITTL), Piedmont doesn't really have many allies and does nothing. In the end, Garibaldi decides that Piedmont has betrayed Italian unification, and ends up unifying Italy himself, overthrowing the Pope and VE in the process.
Or something like that. I really need to read up on Italian Unificaton.
*Which would make a really good band name IMO
Or something like that. I really need to read up on Italian Unificaton.
*Which would make a really good band name IMO
This is near ASB. France and Piemont together could beat Austria, but Garibaldi's militia against trained Austrian defenders? No.
Since I originally misread the title as Maximilian of Habsburg-and-Italy, it would be more realistic to have a Garibaldi invasion trigger a war between Austria and an unprepared Piemont. A disinterested France stays outside and gains Nice and Sardinia, Victor Emmanuel II gets reduced to his ancestral lands of Savoy, and Austria takes Piemont. After the war, The Austrians force the Hapsburg and Bourbon rulers of the peninsula into the Italian Confederation, with the King of Lombardy-Venetia-Piemont as perpetual Supreme Warlord and the Pope as permanent Chancellor. Tariffs union, a common legal codex, some infrastructural reforms etc.
Sounds good, but since the Hapsburgs will also be annexing Romania, I'm kind of worried that this would turn this TL into a Hapsburg-wank. I can definitely see the Austrians, fresh from the Russian War and equipped with the latest toys, curbstoming Piedmont without French support, but I kind of have trouble seeing the Italians just accepting the fact that they're now ruled by a foreign king and a theocrat. Finally, even if it's not the most plausible, I still kind want to see Garibaldi play a major role in the Italian part of the TL, even if he dies a martyr to free Italy from Habsburg and Papal 'oppression'. After all, we can't can't have Maximilian without a Juarez, can we?
Speaking of Romania, how could we get the Austrians to take and hold it without pissing off the Turks?
Speaking of Romania, how could we get the Austrians to take and hold it without pissing off the Turks?
I imagine if you also have Austria annex the Budjak or Dobrudja, which they will want to do anyways to get full control of The Danube, they might be able to spin it to the Sultan that they are "The wall between Turkey and Russia" to make the deal slightly more palatable.
At that point Austria will be more interested in maintaining stability along their now lengthened border and in the Balkans in general than taking more territory from the Ottomans. So you might wind up with fairly cordial relations. Likewise, since Austria has virtually no overseas ambitions, Britain and France would probably be okay with them securing hegemony on The Balkans since it weakens Russia, who is actually competing with the French and British.
Annexing it to Austria proper I think might be a little much. One idea I've always liked is to have the Principality of Moldavia and Principality of Wallachia spun off together as under a cadet branch of the House of Habsburg-Lorraine as the United Principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia with the proviso that it become a neutral state being guaranteed by all the Great Powers, in effect a Belgium of the east. The Ottomans are going to be annoyed but realise eventually that they're going to give up some power/influence in the Danubian Principalities so better a neutral Austrian running the place than an ever encroaching Russia, Russia will be pissed but they lost so no-one cares what they think, Austria has secured the mouth of the Danube so they're happy, and everyone is pleased that Russia has been locked out of the Balkans as well.
Based on feedback from this thread, I managed to write up a draft TL:
- 1853, Franz Josef assassinated, Maximilian becomes Emperor. *Crimean War begins.
- 1854: Russia takes Romania. Austrian army move in to counter Russia. Royal Navy blockades Chilia.
- 1855: Austrian troops secure Wallachia. Austrian assault on Moldavia underway.
- 1856: Austrian takes Moldavia in mid-late Summer/Fall.
- 1856-7: Crimean War Ends, Kingdom of *Romania established.
- 1859: Relations between Piedmont and Austria break down; Italian War begins.
- 1860-1861: Without Napoleon III to aid Piedmont, the Austrians rapidly manage to occupy the Kingdom. The Treaty of Milan establishes the formation of the Kingdom of Italy, with Maximilian as King.
- Mid 1860s: Maximilian conducts various liberal reforms. Possible Italian rebellion?
- Late 1860s-1870s: Maximilian proclaims the creation of the Confederacy of the Danube, a constitutional, federal monarchy with autonomy granted to minorities.
- 1860s-1870s: German unification?
- 1901: Maximilian dies.
- 1910s: "World War I"
That would fit in very well with how the Habsburgs dealt with Tuscany pre-Francis I. Now, Italy is a separate but junior nation as a whole, under a Habsburg king of its own who, nevertheless, is in the imperial line of succession.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
And so you will have in Italy three Habsburg kingdom (the new Kingdom of Italy, the Gran-duchy of Tuscany and the Duchy of Modena), two Bourbon (The kingdom of the Two Sicilies and the Duchy of Parma) and the Papal States...
Oh, I was looking to the future where a confederal kingdom was created that included the others, either by their willing accession (I expect you could browbeat Tuscany) or by popular uprising. But I guess you're right about the starting position.
France won't like that!
Best Regards
Grey Wolf