Maximilian II Emanuel as King of Poland-Lithuania

When John Sobieski died in 1697 he desired for his son, James Louis, to be elected King as his successor. However, James' mother refused to support him and instead supported her son-in-law, Maximilian II Emanuel, Elector of Bavaria. Historically, Maximilian's candidature was overshadowed by the French supporting the Prince of Conti and the Russians supporting Augustus the Strong. Eventually after a contested election Augustus ended up as king. But what if Max Emanuel was able to court enough support from the Poles (through his mother-in-law) and either France or Austria so that he actually won the kingship. What would a Bavarian rule of Poland look like and what would it mean for the War of the Spanish Succession or the Great Northern War (would the later even happen)?
 
When John Sobieski died in 1697 he desired for his son, James Louis, to be elected King as his successor. However, James' mother refused to support him and instead supported her son-in-law, Maximilian II Emanuel, Elector of Bavaria. Historically, Maximilian's candidature was overshadowed by the French supporting the Prince of Conti and the Russians supporting Augustus the Strong. Eventually after a contested election Augustus ended up as king. But what if Max Emanuel was able to court enough support from the Poles (through his mother-in-law) and either France or Austria so that he actually won the kingship. What would a Bavarian rule of Poland look like and what would it mean for the War of the Spanish Succession or the Great Northern War (would the later even happen)?
Well in that timeframe Max’s relationship with both France and Austria was not the best because he was the father of the strongest claimant to Spain. If little Joseph died earlier maybe Max would be able to receive support from either side (his former father-in-law maybe would be also amenable to support Max in Poland in exchange of Joseph’s custody for himself and his sons but I do not think who Max would accept such conditions)
 
Well in that timeframe Max’s relationship with both France and Austria was not the best because he was the father of the strongest claimant to Spain. If little Joseph died earlier maybe Max would be able to receive support from either side (his former father-in-law maybe would be also amenable to support Max in Poland in exchange of Joseph’s custody for himself and his sons but I do not think who Max would accept such conditions)

So basically if Max Emanuel is not in a position to gain in the west then the other powers might be willing to give him something in the east?
 
So basically if Max Emanuel is not in a position to gain in the west then the other powers might be willing to give him something in the east?
Most likely yes. He would be a good candidate to support for France as he was often an ally and his late sister had married the Dauphin (Louis XIV’s son). The Elector of Bavaria is unlikely to be much worse than the Elector of Saxony as King of Poland if his eldest son is not already the heir of the Spanish Empire (inheritance who both the King of France and the Holy Roman Emperor really wanted for their direct relatives)
 
When John Sobieski died in 1697 he desired for his son, James Louis, to be elected King as his successor. However, James' mother refused to support him and instead supported her son-in-law, Maximilian II Emanuel, Elector of Bavaria. Historically, Maximilian's candidature was overshadowed by the French supporting the Prince of Conti and the Russians supporting Augustus the Strong. Eventually after a contested election Augustus ended up as king. But what if Max Emanuel was able to court enough support from the Poles (through his mother-in-law) and either France or Austria so that he actually won the kingship. What would a Bavarian rule of Poland look like and what would it mean for the War of the Spanish Succession or the Great Northern War (would the later even happen)?

To start from the end, Bavaria was an active French ally in the WoSS (Max personally participated in the Battle of Blenheim) and, IIRC, Louis was OK with the Bavarian scenario for Spain. So for all practical purposes he would be considered a French client and as such hardly acceptable for Austria and Russia (both supported August). Not sure if Jan’s widow was popular enough to decide outcome of the elections and, anyway, after Jan’s death her son hurried to send her to Rome.

On a practical side, August won not because he got more votes but because he marched into the PLC with an army. This would not be possible for Elector of Bavaria due to the obvious geographic reasons.

Now, if we assume that, no matter how, Max got the crown, then it is quite possible that, being French candidate, he is going to try to make a separate peace with the Ottomans. Not that this would make a critical difference for the Hapsburgs: in the same 1697 the Ottomans are defeated at Zenta.

By the same reason he may not attack Sweden and the whole idea of the anti-Swedish coalition is falling apart butterflying away the GNW as we know it: the war may eventually happen but it would be in a later time (AFAIK, Peter did expect a much better performance from the Saxons when he agreed to the plan). This of course, leaves a question of how to keep Charles busy with a lot of soeculations being made in various threads.

The next question is what happens to Bavaria? Is it still actively participating on the French side in the WoSS?

Would August remain (or reconvert) Lutheran and what would be his role in the WoSS? I’d guess that he is going to stick with the Hapsburgs but would the Saxon troops make any noticeable difference?
 
To start from the end, Bavaria was an active French ally in the WoSS (Max personally participated in the Battle of Blenheim) and, IIRC, Louis was OK with the Bavarian scenario for Spain. So for all practical purposes he would be considered a French client and as such hardly acceptable for Austria and Russia (both supported August). Not sure if Jan’s widow was popular enough to decide outcome of the elections and, anyway, after Jan’s death her son hurried to send her to Rome.

On a practical side, August won not because he got more votes but because he marched into the PLC with an army. This would not be possible for Elector of Bavaria due to the obvious geographic reasons.

Now, if we assume that, no matter how, Max got the crown, then it is quite possible that, being French candidate, he is going to try to make a separate peace with the Ottomans. Not that this would make a critical difference for the Hapsburgs: in the same 1697 the Ottomans are defeated at Zenta.

By the same reason he may not attack Sweden and the whole idea of the anti-Swedish coalition is falling apart butterflying away the GNW as we know it: the war may eventually happen but it would be in a later time (AFAIK, Peter did expect a much better performance from the Saxons when he agreed to the plan). This of course, leaves a question of how to keep Charles busy with a lot of soeculations being made in various threads.

The next question is what happens to Bavaria? Is it still actively participating on the French side in the WoSS?

Would August remain (or reconvert) Lutheran and what would be his role in the WoSS? I’d guess that he is going to stick with the Hapsburgs but would the Saxon troops make any noticeable difference?

At the time of the election, Max Emanuel was fighting for the Emperor against the Turks which may make him more amenable. Of course, however, Max Emanuel was always looking to advance his dynastic ambitions by any means and I believe that the Emperor understood that. Perhaps the Emperor can promise Max Emanuel Poland in return for his support in the Spanish Succession crisis.
 
@alexmilman: while Maximilian was a French supporter during the WoSS at the time of the election he (or better his eldest son and heir) is the biggest obstacle to the French claim on Spain. OTL France supported Conti instead of him because Max was the father of the heir of Spain (and most likely would become his son’s regent in few years)... Kill off Joseph and France will likely support Max Emanuel instead of pushing Conti’s candidature. Kill off Joseph and Archduke Charles will be the recognized heir of Spain and Leopold will be less against Max’s candidature to the Polish crown. Put Max on the Polish throne and in some years Joseph’s oldest daughter will be offered as bride to Charles instead of Augustus of Saxony (who will most likely need a totally different bride as marrying in Saxony will not be a priority for Austria)
 
At the time of the election, Max Emanuel was fighting for the Emperor against the Turks which may make him more amenable. Of course, however, Max Emanuel was always looking to advance his dynastic ambitions by any means and I believe that the Emperor understood that. Perhaps the Emperor can promise Max Emanuel Poland in return for his support in the Spanish Succession crisis.

That may be, providing in 1697 the Emperor has a foresight of the future: plan involving Joseph Ferdinand as a heir was formulated in 1698 which means that the crisis was not there yet. Nobody could predict that he is going to die in 1699.
 
That may be, providing in 1697 the Emperor has a foresight of the future: plan involving Joseph Ferdinand as a heir was formulated in 1698 which means that the crisis was not there yet. Nobody could predict that he is going to die in 1699.

In this scenario Joseph Ferdinand is already dead so that the Hapsburgs are not worried about giving the Wittelsbach family two kingdoms.
 
In this scenario Joseph Ferdinand is already dead so that the Hapsburgs are not worried about giving the Wittelsbach family two kingdoms.
If Joseph Ferdinand is already dead then Archduke Charles is the heir of Spain (in OTL he was the heir between the death of Joseph Ferdinand and the last months of life of Charles II of Spain). Max is closer to France than Austria so most likely France will support and Austria will not be actively against his candidature in Poland (and Conti will be out of the race) and that would be enough for giving him the crown.
 
@alexmilman: while Maximilian was a French supporter during the WoSS at the time of the election he (or better his eldest son and heir) is the biggest obstacle to the French claim on Spain. OTL France supported Conti instead of him because Max was the father of the heir of Spain (and most likely would become his son’s regent in few years)... Kill off Joseph and France will likely support Max Emanuel instead of pushing Conti’s candidature. Kill off Joseph and Archduke Charles will be the recognized heir of Spain and Leopold will be less against Max’s candidature to the Polish crown. Put Max on the Polish throne and in some years Joseph’s oldest daughter will be offered as bride to Charles instead of Augustus of Saxony (who will most likely need a totally different bride as marrying in Saxony will not be a priority for Austria)

The French did not have a clearly formulated claim on Spain until the last moment and 1697 is too early to talk about any obstacles: the 1st plan regarding Spain (and Joseph) was proposed only in 1698. As was correctly noticed by @Archduke, at that time Max is still fighting on the Hapsburg side (not sure if he is still a governor of the Spanish Netherlands). The War of the Grand Alliance is still going on and August is the only interested German prince who is available, interested and can back up his claim with a military force.
 
In this scenario Joseph Ferdinand is already dead so that the Hapsburgs are not worried about giving the Wittelsbach family two kingdoms.

Well, did I miss an absence of his early death in your initial post or are you keep killing the people in a process? :)

Anyway, were there any serious indications that Max was interested in that mixed blessing called the PLC? I was under the impression that he would rather get something in the Western Europe, either from Louis or from Leopold and his position as a governor of the Spanish Netherlands provided him with some hope for getting a piece of a real estate closer to Bavaria.
 
Well, did I miss an absence of his early death in your initial post or are you keep killing the people in a process? :)

Anyway, were there any serious indications that Max was interested in that mixed blessing called the PLC? I was under the impression that he would rather get something in the Western Europe, either from Louis or from Leopold and his position as a governor of the Spanish Netherlands provided him with some hope for getting a piece of a real estate closer to Bavaria.

I think it came up after Isabella's initial reply.

Max Emanuel wanted a throne more than anything. He wanted Western territories but if he can get a throne in the East I believe he would take it.
 
I think it came up after Isabella's initial reply.

Max Emanuel wanted a throne more than anything. He wanted Western territories but if he can get a throne in the East I believe he would take it.
Then it is probably going along the lines I described unless Max is “playing August”.
 
Well, did I miss an absence of his early death in your initial post or are you keep killing the people in a process? :)

Anyway, were there any serious indications that Max was interested in that mixed blessing called the PLC? I was under the impression that he would rather get something in the Western Europe, either from Louis or from Leopold and his position as a governor of the Spanish Netherlands provided him with some hope for getting a piece of a real estate closer to Bavaria.

I think it came up after Isabella's initial reply.

Max Emanuel wanted a throne more than anything. He wanted Western territories but if he can get a throne in the East I believe he would take it.

Then it is probably going along the lines I described unless Max is “playing August”.
I think who without Joseph and his son’s Spanish inheritance Max will be much more interested than OTL in Poland. If Max will present his candidature he will have support from France and his mother-in-law and maybe Austria will stay neutral between him and the Elector of Saxony. The OTL election was won by Conti so here Max also will win and is unlikely who the Elector of Saxony will try to take the Crown by
force here, against a fellow Elector who is also the son-in-law of the previous King and without full support from Austria...

OTL Max had neither the support nor the interest in the PLC because he was pointing everything on his son’s Spanish inheritance. Without that the PLC is likely a good opportunity for him
 
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I think who without Joseph and his son’s Spanish inheritance Max will be much more interested than OTL in Poland. If Max will present his candidature he will have support from France and his mother-in-law and maybe Austria will stay neutral between him and the Elector of Saxony.

The OTL election was won by Conti so here Max also will win and is unlikely who the Elector of Saxony will try to take the Crown by
force here, against a fellow Elector who is also the son-in-law of the previous King and without full support from Austria...

I'm afraid that you are a little bit confused with your timing. At the time when the PLC throne became vacant Max was fighting against France so why and how he would suddenly get Louis' support? Second, at a risk to look as a male pig sexist ;), in 1697 Marie Casimire was not a powerful political figure either in the PLC (out of which her own son immediately sent her to the Rome, anyway, making the whole thing a mute point) nor in France (her ambitions regarding her French relatives being treated as the royals did not find any sympathy from Louis).

When the vacation opened during the War of the Grand Alliance Max was more important to the Hapsburgs as a governor of the Spanish Netherlands than as a candidate to the Polish throne. OTOH, in OTL Conti won a vote of majority as a French candidate (war with the Ottomans already lost its popularity and for the Polish side was not going to end with any significant gains) so how Max, who was at that time the Hapsburg ally, would fit the definition? Louis could be assured in Conti's loyalty but Max' loyalty was not on the table until the WoSS.

As for his competition with August, an idea is interesting but by the obvious geographic reasons August was in a much better position to march his army to the PLC than Max, who was, anyway, at that time fighting the French in the Spanish Netherlands. Not to mention that, besides rather vague support from Austria, August had a tangible support from Russia: Peter's government had been actively bribing the deputies of the Sejm not to let the French candidate to be elected (which would mean breaking anti-Ottoman alliance) and while at that time the Russian army was incapable of fighting the Swedes, it was more than capable of dealing with whatever was passing at that time for the PLC troops.

Austria in 1697 was still busy with the Ottomans and it is highly unlikely that it would go to interfere militarily in the Polish conflict. OTOH, Peter's Azov campaigns had been already over.

OTL Max had neither the support nor the interest in the PLC because he was pointing everything on his son’s Spanish inheritance. Without that the PLC is likely a good opportunity for him

You keep ignoring the timing: in 1697 his son was not a heir to the Spanish throne so he could not bet anything on the Spanish inheritance. The PLC was not a good opportunity for him because he was already sitting on two chairs: Electorate of Bavaria and governorship of the Spanish Netherlands and, as far as I can imagine, any of them was more profitable and less troublesome than the PLC.
 
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