Maximilian, Elector of Bavaria dies.

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by VVD0D95, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. isabella Well-Known Member

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    Still nobody in his right mind not called Louis XIV would think who the Dauphin is a viable candidate as husband for Maria Antonia
     
  2. Vitruvius Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. But in peace time (at least peacetime in the west, the War with the Turks still rages) Leopold may have a little more room to maneuver. I think the Italians may be a little more viable (though the Sobieski maybe less so). But once Austria is at War with France then I think the marriage has to be made within the circle of states that have signed on to the League of Augsburg.
     
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  3. isabella Well-Known Member

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    Oh, about that sure...
     
  4. Valena Well-Known Member

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    Re. Italians, I think Farnese may be more in consideration than Medici (and OTL Duchess of Parma marries Josef Clemens), but I'm still a fan of Medici match in my heart.
     
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  5. Vitruvius Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I don't know, I think you could go either way. The problem with the Farnese is the family was really broken financially and militarily by the Wars of Castro. Tuscany's maybe a little better off but it's marginally greater strength is probably offset by their French connections. Also there was a real concern in other courts about how suitable they were given Cosimo III and Marguerite Louise's disastrous marriage.
     
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  6. Janprimus Well-Known Member

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    If he doesn't, and the Bavarian Branch of house of Wittelsbach would end up without Male heirs, then the head of the Palatinate Branch of the house of Wittelsbach, so the current Elector Palatine (from the Pfalz-Neuburg branch) will also inherit the Bavarian Wittelsbach lands. In 1689, that's still Philipp Wilhelm, his heir, Johann Wilhelm, IOTL succeeded him in 1690, however Johann Wilhelm also lost his first wife in 1689. Then a match between Johann Wilhelm and Maria Antonia would be an good option.
     
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  7. VVD0D95 Lemmy is God.

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    Interesting which would cause all
    Sorts of issues though, given johann didn’t have any kids orl
     
  8. Janprimus Well-Known Member

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    @Brita: I looked into it for a bit and apparently Joseph Clemens was not fully ordained as Priest in 1689 at least. Not uncommon for younger sons of prominent Catholic Royal and Noble houses. For one he more or less had to this for his House, he much rather would have become a General. Much more important though, by not being fully ordained, there was still a backdoor to succeed an elder brother, if he died without heirs, whereas reversing this for a fully ordained Priest, is much much harder.

    @VVD0D95: at least we know Joseph Clemens did have children, he had two acknowledged sons with his mistress. Still both branches would inherit the other, in the case one line went extinct. Just like how every Habsburg was an Archduke of Austria, every Wittelsbach (at least in the HRE) was a duke of Bavaria (when Bavaria adopted Primogeniture, this was changed to a duke in Bavaria (the head of the Bavarian branch was The duke of Bavaria) and Count Palatine by Rhine. So at least the Palatinate, Bavaria and the Upper Palatinate would remain intact. Later acquisitions, like for instance the duchies of Jülich and Berg for the Palatinate branch (Pfalz-Neuburg) would in theory be easier provided one could claim it legally and it wouldn't upset the balance of power too much. Sure Brandenburg-Prussia might claim those duchies, since Pfalz-Neuburg and the Franconian (Brandenburg-Prussia) Hohenzollerns ended up divided the inheritance of the duchies of Jülich-Cleves-Berg (and the counties of Mark and Ravensberg), but at the time the settlement was also a religious one. And given the balance of power, Austria and most other German states would most likely back the house of Wittelsbach here.
     
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  9. isabella Well-Known Member

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    I think who Leopold would like better marrying Maria Antonia to one of his younger brothers-in-law not to the heir or will think to let her marrying Charles II of Spain in the hope to secure better Spain for his own second son. Obviously in both cases his plan would spectacularly backfire in securing Spain for Antonia’s kids (who is exactly what Leopold deserve).
    In case of Antonia marrying her uncle Carlos will die years earlier than OTL and Antonia remarried
     
  10. VVD0D95 Lemmy is God.

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    This is very true
     
  11. VVD0D95 Lemmy is God.

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    I will say this Maxi's fate in An Unexpected Prince is soon to be decided ;)
     
  12. Vitruvius Well-Known Member

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    So I've been thinking this over a bit more and I was wondering about the plausibility of the Sobieski marriage. I'm thinking specifically if we back date Max Emanuel's death to the Siege of Belgrade (Sept 6 1688). Let me know if this makes any sense.

    So to start I think the Imperial army still takes Belgrade, Max Emanuel just dies from his injuries. As that was basically the end of the campaign for that season not much else changes immediately. So the Austrians are left in control of most of the right bank of the Sava and the Danube as far as Smerderevo below Belgrade. Definitely poised for a big campaign next year as they did OTL yet their commander has just died, which may affect moral but more importantly the loyalty of the new Elector of Bavaria isn't necessarily assured and trouble is brewing in the West.

    The geopolitical situation in Germany is tricky. With Max Emanuel dead his brother Joseph Clement automatically becomes Elector of Bavaria, but Joseph Clement was only a month before named Prince Archbishop and Elector of Cologne by the Pope after a contested election. So he will have to surrender the Ecclesiastical Electorate. This puts the Emperor in a bind as the French backed William Egon von Furstenberg is currently fighting for control there. The Bavarians had always flirted with a French alliance and the French ambassador in Lisbon and Joseph's sister, the Dauphine, had just a couple years earlier been back channeling a match between him and the Infanta Isabel Luisa da Braganza. So I can see the French working even harder to try to detach the new Bavarian Elector from the Austrian camp and to get him to surrender his claims to Cologne to von Furstenberg. I'm not sure if Leopold would be inclined to offer Joseph Clement his brother's widow or if that's even really plausible even with the Pope on board but absent that he doesn't have any major carrots to entire the new Elector. Also this is not to say that Jospeh is automatically inclined to switch sides but for Leopold it has to be a major concern.

    IOTL Louis would invade Germany in September so the pressure's on. The logical successor as an Imperial candidate would probably be Ludwig Anton of Pfalz-Neuburg since he was a canon at Cologne and helped orchestrate Joseph Clement's sort-of-election. But he will have an uphill battle even if the Pope gives his blessing (which he probably will). So Leopold needs to keep Joseph Clement on his side not just to secure Cologne but also to keep Bavarian troops in the field lest the new Elector recall them. OTL the Austrians would have to withdraw forces pretty soon, and after massive success in 1689 in which they briefly reached as far as Skopje all their gains beyond the Danube would be lost by the end of 1690. Now, of course, they wouldn't know that at the time but Leopold will certainly feel pressed in the West with the French invading Germany, the Imperial candidate in Cologne having to abdicate and the new Elector of Bavaria potentially being unreliable. In the east they've taken Belgrade but it wasn't easy and they may have to pull back troops to send west allowing the Ottomans to regroup. The Ottomans would crush the Chiprovtsi Uprising in NW Bulgaria in the fall of 1688 so they've just demonstrated that they're still capable of retaliating even after loosing Belgrade.

    So into this situation the marriage of Maria Antonia comes up. I think John III would certainly put forward his son again. Leopold had once promised her to James Louis before the Siege of Vienna so when's he's desperate enough he's willing to put aside his pride and ego. I'm certainly not going to make out that the situation in 1688-89 is as bad as in 1683 because of course it's not. But it's not great either. On the other hand, after Vienna John III was riding high, hailed as the savior of Christendom with designs on Wallachia, Moldavia, maybe even Transylvania. Leopold certainly wasn't going to stomach marrying his then only daughter to his rival's heir. But flash forward to 1688 and John's position has deteriorated. His two campaigns into Moldavia have both ended in failure, he's failed to retake Kamianets from the Turks and he's been forced to make a disadvantageous peace with the Russians to get them on side. So he's less of a rival now. In 1690 when the Austrian's had to pull out troops from the Balkans they were willing to discuss coordination with Sobieski and agreed to a deal that allotted him Moldavia and the Austrians Wallachia. So a deal could be had.

    So what I'm thinking is that a deal is reached and sealed by marriage. Leopold agrees to marry Maria Antonia to James Louis. They are given a Duchy in Silesia, maybe Opole or maybe his OTL Duchy of Olawa. I could see Leopold insisting that Maria Antonia is made Duchess in her own right so that she can hold it if Jakub dies and he doesn't get to keep it if she dies first without kids. Anyways it gives Jakub some territory outside Poland which John III really wanted so that somewhat alleviates the need for another Moldavian campaign. OTL he convinced the Sejm that the strategy was to invade and conquer Moldavia to cut of Kamianets from Turkish supply lines. They were less than impressed with the results. So here the new strategy could be to move against Kamianets directly or at least make some incursions there to tie down the Tatars while Jakub leads a Polish contingent to join the Austrians and invade through Serbia into Bulgaria and Thrace and deliver a knock out blow to compel the Ottomans to make peace. I'm not saying it would work but on paper I think its a convincing strategy.

    So both sides get something. Leopold gets troops to reinforce him in the Balkans so he can divert troops to Germany to counter the threat there. He keeps Poland squarely on his side in the looming War with France, Maria Antonia renounces her rights to Spain and is compensated by being made Duchess of Opole. She marries a Polish Prince who couldn't realistically pose much of a threat to Leopold in Spain or Spanish Italy (I know, I know, Spain may still name their child heir but from Leopold's perspective a Sobieski seems less likely to want to or even be able to go to Spain than a German prince), John gets some territory for his son and prestige from the marriage, they're able to make a coordinated assault on the Ottomans.

    So is this realistic? Obviously it's not a slam dunk but I think it's a plausible scenario.
     
  13. VVD0D95 Lemmy is God.

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    Interesting, very interesting, of course a spanner in the works would be Carlos II dying whilst all this is going on aha, or Maria Antonia living past her uncle's otl lifespan
     
  14. Vitruvius Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it's a real minefield. I guess I was just considering the plausibility of this one scenario, could you match them up under the right circumstances.

    Then you'd have to consider how long Maria Antonia could live, if she has any children, if one if a boy or just girls, when John III dies and if Jakub is elected to succeed him, when Charles II dies and who's around to succeed him and so on.
     
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  15. VVD0D95 Lemmy is God.

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    True enough, I do think it was the constantly getting pregnant that ended up killing her, if she'd had one surviving son early on that might've allowed her to live longer
     
  16. isabella Well-Known Member

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    If Antonia remarried to Sobieski the best thing to do is having her dying before Carlos II with only a daughter (who can marry her half-brother Karl II)
     
  17. VVD0D95 Lemmy is God.

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    Oh why that root?
     
  18. isabella Well-Known Member

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    At least this way the situation will end in securing Spain for Archduke Karl instead of complicating more the situation
     
  19. VVD0D95 Lemmy is God.

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    This is very true
     
  20. Vitruvius Well-Known Member

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    Except that the marriage of her daughter would be controlled by her husband. So say instead of a son Joseph Ferdinand she had a daughter Josepha with Max Emanuel or with a new husband, be he a Neuburg or Sobieski. Her husband would have custody of the girl and be able to control her marriage. I'm sure Leopold would want her married to his son Charles but in also sure Louis XIV would pull out all the stops to marry her to his grandson Philip, Duc d'Anjou. She would basically solidify either claim. So that gives her father enormous leverage.

    Neuburg would likely go along and marry her to Charles, maybe he gets a little something like being made Governor of the Spanish Netherlands. Max Emanuel might actually go for France. Sobieski is a big question mark.