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What do people think is the most successful Al Qaeda could have gotten? Could they have got the US to retreat from the Islamic world, and could they have established a Caliphate somewhere in the ME?

I've been thinking about how Bin Laden screwed up what was initially a fairly smart strategy. 9/11 was spectacularly successful, but in hindsight a dumb move, because it destroyed their sanctuary in Afghanistan and put them on the defence. I think Bin Laden would have been much better off if he had continued with attacks like the African embassy bombings, Khobar towers, the attack on the USS Cole etc. Pinprick American power in the ME and hope they tire and quit the field. If we see Bush in the White House as otl, what would his response be? I doubt he could get backing for regime change in Afghanistan, and countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan aren't going to be very helpful at all if just Americans are dying. In Iraq, something's got to give as containment was at breaking point, but I can't see regime change there without 9/11 either. thoughts?
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