Maximally successful Al Qaeda

What do people think is the most successful Al Qaeda could have gotten? Could they have got the US to retreat from the Islamic world, and could they have established a Caliphate somewhere in the ME?

I've been thinking about how Bin Laden screwed up what was initially a fairly smart strategy. 9/11 was spectacularly successful, but in hindsight a dumb move, because it destroyed their sanctuary in Afghanistan and put them on the defence. I think Bin Laden would have been much better off if he had continued with attacks like the African embassy bombings, Khobar towers, the attack on the USS Cole etc. Pinprick American power in the ME and hope they tire and quit the field. If we see Bush in the White House as otl, what would his response be? I doubt he could get backing for regime change in Afghanistan, and countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan aren't going to be very helpful at all if just Americans are dying. In Iraq, something's got to give as containment was at breaking point, but I can't see regime change there without 9/11 either. thoughts?
 
US won't retreat from the Middle East (as I assume that's what you mean by the Islamic world... just don't forget Pakistan and Indonesia too!) unless it feels its security presence in the region is no longer needed, Al-Qaeda doesn't have the presence to force a retreat.

Caliphate isn't going to happen either.

Bin Laden and his group are going to have to eventually target American interests abroad if they want to focus on hurting America outside of the actual territory of the United States, they've proven in the past that they are willing to bomb embassies in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the Saudi government by 2001 already hates Bin Laden's guts.

The Taliban are going to be a problem for Pakistan, and the USA's ties to Pakistan are going to make them a target for terrorist organizations, they too will support the Americans.

Bush with no 9/11 but continued terrorist attacks against Americans abroad is going to try and reform intelligence and such as OTL, it'll be relatively boring otherwise.

Iraq was more of an inconvenient regime that Bush used the War on Terror as an excuse to get rid of, the US and Iraq are still going to have bad relations except the US will slowly fund separatist groups and rebels to tear Iraq apart from the inside.
 
Could they have got the US to retreat from the Islamic world, and could they have established a Caliphate somewhere in the ME?



Retreat from the Middle East? Uh, you do know there's oil there right? If knocking down the twin towers, takng a bite out of the Pentagon, and killing Americans on American soil wouldn't make us retreat do you REALLY think blowing up some embassies in Africa or sinking a few naval ships would do it?



Are you aware that back in 1979 the US embassy in Tehran (which was sovereign US soil) was actually captured and its occupants held hostage for over a year? A lot of people seem to think terrorist attacks against the US began on September eleventh, they did not.



Depending on the severity of the attacks Bush would certainly have responded with trying to impose sanctions, supporting opposing factions, air strikes, or strikes by tomahawks. If the disturbances were severe enough even an invasion might be possible. But abandoning the Middle East entirely?



That is simply not possible.



The instinctive reaction to provocation by terrorists would be GREATER military involvement. Just consider the Vietnam War as an example of this the answer to opposition is an increase in effort not abandonment. At least not until the nation is exhausted by the effort. No matter how many buildings in Africa get blown up or ships sunk it would not be enough to make the American public weary.



We will leave the Middle east when the oil runs out, not before.



As for the Caliphate idea; at BEST they would be a rogue state that was politically isolated ala North Korea. If they openly supported terrorist attacks on US citizens they would very likely be invaded and conquered at some point. The only reason North Korea has not been is because they are under the protection of Communist China. No great power is going to shield a terrorist Caliphate that is openly attacking America.
 
As for the Caliphate idea; at BEST they would be a rogue state that was politically isolated ala North Korea. If they openly supported terrorist attacks on US citizens they would very likely be invaded and conquered at some point. The only reason North Korea has not been is because they are under the protection of Communist China. No great power is going to shield a terrorist Caliphate that is openly attacking America.

Well North Korea isn't so much feared for China (which has dropped more than a few hints that North Korea is going to be left to hang because at this point it's a major drag on China's policy in Asia) it's feared for the fact that any war to destroy them would involve having millions of people dead within a matter of hours. China doesn't want to deal with the refugees but it isn't going to pull a re-run of the Korean War on North Korea's behalf.
 
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