What is Maximum population Russia can achieve by today?
POD after 800
With earliest
abolition of serfdom
Mass settlement
US style Industrialization
Borders: incl light green

1634315773110.png
 
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What is Maximum population Russia can achieve?
POD after 800
With earliest
abolition of serfdom
Mass settlement
Borders: incl light green

View attachment 687677
The key factor is absent. What type of the economy would your alt-Russia have? If it is more or less the same as in OTL Russian Empire then approximately the same as in a reality plus population of Manchuria, aka 160-170,000,000. It was already getting short of the agricultural land and your “additions” would not chance situation too much.
 
What is Maximum population Russia can achieve?
POD after 800
With earliest
abolition of serfdom
Mass settlement
Industrialization
Borders: incl light green

View attachment 687677
Achieve in what period? Today, with pre-industrial technology or during industrialization? Anyway the answer in either case is that they could have had far more people, but the specifics depend on what you mean.
 
Warning
The key factor is absent. What type of the economy would your alt-Russia have? If it is more or less the same as in OTL Russian Empire then approximately the same as in a reality plus population of Manchuria, aka 160-170,000,000. It was already getting short of the agricultural land and your “additions” would not chance situation too much.
Wrong
I asked "What can it have?" not what it had
Russia Still isn't short of farm land



settlement of Siberia only really picked up during Nicholas II
It wasn't finished due to WWI
It never picked again

This is still is not fully settled

1634317421776.png

1634317899831.png
 
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The key factor is absent. What type of the economy would your alt-Russia have? If it is more or less the same as in OTL Russian Empire then approximately the same as in a reality plus population of Manchuria, aka 160-170,000,000. It was already getting short of the agricultural land and your “additions” would not chance situation too much.
Economy Industrialized like US
 
1990 Soviet Union had 290 million people, Manchuria+some of Inner Mongolia had 105 million people in 1990, then we have 5 million in Finland and let's say around 20 million in Congress Poland and other territories(I won't count Northern Iran because that's weird). So in total we have around 420 million people in 1990 OTL.

I'd argue it could have upwards of 1 billion people if it kept high fertility rates up to today and early colonization of the Steppe in Europe and more arable Siberian lands.
 
Economy Industrialized like US
Economy Industrialized like US
Too vague. The SU was heavily industrialized but by 1980s had to import the food because agriculture was extensive but not efficient. We can assume that if somewhere somehow reasonably early in its development Russian agriculture would go the way of individual farming instead of communal landownership and by the late XIX Russia became a heavily industrialized country allowing mechanization of the agriculture and there are no major wars, revolution and socialism, etc. then population could grow noticeably above the OTL numbers. Say, something in the range of 400-500M. But this is a pure speculation based upon the numerous guesses and assumptions.
 
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Too vague. The SU was heavily industrialized but by 1980s had to import the food because agriculture was extensive but not efficient. We can assume that if somewhere somehow reasonably early in its development Russian agriculture would go the way of individual farming instead of communal landownership and by the late XIX Russia became a heavily industrialized country allowing mechanization of the agriculture and there are no major wars, revolution and socialism, etc. then population could grow noticeably above the OTL numbers. Say, something in the range of 400-500M.
Not vague
US style Industrialization means
US process of Industrialization
mechanised agriculture- consumer goods- heavy industry

Opposite of Soviet model
 
Not vague
US style Industrialization means
US process of Industrialization
mechanised agriculture- consumer goods- heavy industry

Opposite of Soviet model
You keep talking generalities and consider them meaningful for everybody so why don’t you produce your own numbers rather than keep asking the questions and then getting upset with the answers which do not suit you. Good bye.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Wrong
I asked "What can it have?" not what it had
Russia Still isn't short of farm land



settlement of Siberia only really picked up during Nicholas II
It wasn't finished due to WWI
It never picked again

This is still is not fully settled

View attachment 687682
View attachment 687683
Okay...

This horseshit stops here and now.

You WILL stop opening every reply to member that you disagree with with "WRONG". It is exceptionally impolite, and, if you will, the WRONG thing to do.

Do NOT test to see how far, or if there is some variation that will work, this Formal Warning goes. You are already on a short leash, it isn't going to get any longer.
 
The key factor is absent. What type of the economy would your alt-Russia have? If it is more or less the same as in OTL Russian Empire then approximately the same as in a reality plus population of Manchuria, aka 160-170,000,000. It was already getting short of the agricultural land and your “additions” would not chance situation too much.

Agricultural land is not the defining metric of your population since at leats half a century, if not a full one. There is plenty of countries, including big ones, that have outrun both their viable farming land and their own food production many millions of citizens ago.
 
Agricultural land is not the defining metric of your population since at leats half a century, if not a full one. There is plenty of countries, including big ones, that have outrun both their viable farming land and their own food production many millions of citizens ago.
The question was about Russia, not some other country, and Russian development had its own specifics which can’t be simply ignored without turning it into something absolutely different about which speculations are impossible because, for example, if Russian Empire is industrialized early (aka at least by the end of the XIX century) along the “US lines”, we have no clue about the world history which is following. You know, the “trifles” like WWI and especially WWII, and a big part of the XX century history.

We can say for sure that in 1914 population was 160M and the land crisis was looming and that in 1990 it was over 287M and agricultural crisis was in a full bloom with the serious food shortages which were not fully resolved by the massive imports: “Agricultural imports rose from an annual average of $2.6 billion in 1970-72 to peak at $21 billion in 1981. Farm commodities accounted for 21 percent of total imports in 1970-74, 23 percent in 1975-79, and 25 percent in 1980-84.
…..

The food problem was the stagnation in per capita diet improvement and rapidly rising production costs. Imports during 1974-81 of 187 million tons of grain, 9 million tons of soybeans, and 4.6 million tons of meat and ~eat products only managed to keep per capita consumption of meat in 1982 at the same level it had been in 1975, 57 kilograms, and did not stop the decline of per capita consumption of milk and milk products by
20 kilograms to 295 kilograms. “


How things would look like in some alternative Russia with no clearly defined social system, economy and “unpredictable past” is anybody’s wild guess but go ahead, define how much of the agriculture products that alternative is going to import, how it is going to pay for them, etc. and based upon these data define maximum possible population. I can’t.
 
How things would look like in some alternative Russia with no clearly defined social system, economy and “unpredictable past” is anybody’s wild guess but go ahead, define how much of the agriculture products that alternative is going to import, how it is going to pay for them, etc. and based upon these data define maximum possible population. I can’t.
If you think you can't want answer the actual question why even respond to the thread? The entire point is to speculate using very early PODs.
 
If you think you can't want answer the actual question why even respond to the thread? The entire point is to speculate using very early PODs.
You are, again, itching for the confrontation. Not going to happen.

There are speculations based upon the meaningful source data or precise questions and there are those that aren’t. It seemingly escaped your attention that I started with the attempts to clarify framework of the OP and gave up when clarification did not happen: the PODs are too vague. The post to which you are objecting was an answer to the direct question asked to me regarding the points I made so answering was a matter of a pure politeness.

Now, when I need you opinion on what I should or should not post, I’ll let you know.
 
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Agricultural land is not the defining metric of your population since at leats half a century, if not a full one. There is plenty of countries, including big ones, that have outrun both their viable farming land and their own food production many millions of citizens ago.
Yeah, I don't think there is a developing country whose population growth was literally stopped by exhaustion of land in the 20th century.
Maybe for Russia it's harder to tell but places like Ukraine certainly can feed many more people with domestic production.
 
IIRC we had a similar thread about Ukraine recently right? I'd imagine Russia could make a run for over a billion people eventually if you combine enough compounding high-level factors such as:

- Keep the price of food extremely low, likely via the help of these factors
- More ambitious settlement plans are organized by the Russian government to populate underutilized lands that follow similar demographic models as seen in temperate settler colonies like the USA and South Africa
- Keep the people fairly uneducated, especially women. We know there's a direct correlation between a greater education of women and falling birth rates, if all you're after is ballooning the number of Russians then this is key
- Detente with the Ottoman Empire that guarantees Russia's trade through the Straights
- Russia opts for a diplomatic approach to the Balkans; encourages Orthodox Slavs to leave the OE for Russia and settle in the North Caucasus
- Non-aggression in Europe, refuse to engage in World Wars or its equivalents, especially against the German states
- Pragmatism in the Pale of Settlement religiously, with an aggressive and honest attempt at pan-Slavism. Maybe have the tsars formally claim the crown of Poland and restructure the sejm?

Some of these things were in effect at various times, just highlighting things that are certain to help demographically. The more you can stack the better for ballooning Russia's numbers if that's the goal. From piecing all of these things together it sounds like what you want is an oligarchic capitalist hellhole with a half-decent welfare state. Rich enough to be stable and constantly on top of the latest and greatest innovations to have their goods compete internationally and to drastically lower childhood mortality rates to something respectable, but poor, uneducated, and with enough plentiful land to keep the population ballooning as agricultural workers have tons of children. Especially if Russia were to ex. annex Korea and managed to integrate it properly to help bolster their population, even if they aren't necessarily ethnic Russians
 
I remember in a thread some years ago someone extrapolating the population of the Russian Empire in 1914 to work out a population without two world wars, and they got a high of around 400m.
 
The question was about Russia, not some other country, and Russian development had its own specifics which can’t be simply ignored without turning it into something absolutely different about which speculations are impossible because, for example, if Russian Empire is industrialized early (aka at least by the end of the XIX century) along the “US lines”, we have no clue about the world history which is following. You know, the “trifles” like WWI and especially WWII, and a big part of the XX century history.

We can say for sure that in 1914 population was 160M and the land crisis was looming and that in 1990 it was over 287M and agricultural crisis was in a full bloom with the serious food shortages which were not fully resolved by the massive imports: “Agricultural imports rose from an annual average of $2.6 billion in 1970-72 to peak at $21 billion in 1981. Farm commodities accounted for 21 percent of total imports in 1970-74, 23 percent in 1975-79, and 25 percent in 1980-84.
…..

The food problem was the stagnation in per capita diet improvement and rapidly rising production costs. Imports during 1974-81 of 187 million tons of grain, 9 million tons of soybeans, and 4.6 million tons of meat and ~eat products only managed to keep per capita consumption of meat in 1982 at the same level it had been in 1975, 57 kilograms, and did not stop the decline of per capita consumption of milk and milk products by
20 kilograms to 295 kilograms. “


How things would look like in some alternative Russia with no clearly defined social system, economy and “unpredictable past” is anybody’s wild guess but go ahead, define how much of the agriculture products that alternative is going to import, how it is going to pay for them, etc. and based upon these data define maximum possible population. I can’t.
The decline of Russian agriculture had way more to do with Soviet economics than arable land. An even halfway competent regime could have had much higher yields than what the Soviets managed.
 
The decline of Russian agriculture had way more to do with Soviet economics than arable land. An even halfway competent regime could have had much higher yields than what the Soviets managed.
Quite agree regarding the Soviets, their wrong approach to the economy and their competence but it also should not be forgotten that in the early XX Russia was facing the land crisis caused by the high rate of population growth , which was not fully resolved by Stolypin reform (and resettlement into Siberia, while quite impressive, was not fully up to the planned schedule and the Siberian “farmers” still were behind their American colleagues in the terms of mechanization). By 1914 it was still unclear how the whole situation is going to get resolved and wwi demonstrated fragility of the existing agricultural model and the resulting domino effects.

Dealing with the whole situation (switching from extensive to intensive agriculture and turning “surplus” peasants into the industrial workers ) was not a simple task which “half competent regime” could resolve even if we assume that the Soviets were representing “absolutely incompetent” level on a measurement scale. I’m not saying that the task was not unresolvable, just that it’s is hard to say something definite in the absence of specifics in the OP.
 
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