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As far as I can tell ATLs with an independent CSA without European intervention fall into two categories:
1) Confederate troops in 1861 make it into DC, mostly after a Battle of Bull Run which goes even worse for the Union. (Which would be tough)
2) Peace of exhaustion in 1864, not enough Union victories lead to the defeat of Lincoln by a Peace Democrat, etc...

In case 1, are any of the Border states (MO, KY, MD, DE) likely to be demanded by the CSA? What about Southern NM/AZ and Southern CA?

In case 2, I don't think any Border states are likely and AZ/NM/CA lessso, the primary question is whether Virginia gets restored.

(Yes, I'm excluding TL-191)
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