Maverick (a McCain TL)

Chief of Staff Lindsey Graham doesn't make sense.
I wanted someone close to McCain in terms of political ideology, but not just someone off his campaign; a player in the Republican establishment, but not too big, (Linsey was a member of the House in 2001).

Who would be a better candidate, you think? Thinking over some alternatives, maybe someone from the House Republican leadership? Looking over some things, maybe John Boehner (or Bill Paxton) would be a possibility, especially if he thinks the attempted coup against Gingrich closed doors to future prospects there.

Someone also suggested John Kasich (albeit as a potential McCain VP) in another thread; since he's a representative in 2001, he's a possibility as well.
Maybe Mark Salter?
Nah, Mark Slater is the Communications Director; it's fairly rare for someone from a President's election campaign to start said presidency as Chief of Staff; usually, that position goes to someone from the party establishment with heft.

That's not to say he couldn't find himself in the position by the end of McCain's Presidency; people get promoted all the time, after all.

Either way, I'll go on and fix the update itself to account for this Lindsey not being Chief of Staff.

EDIT ADD: I think I'll go with Boehner as Chief of Staff for now. If that much is good for everyone, I do have plans to shake up the White House Staff a little in the next update.
 
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Is there any possibility of Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson being in the McCain Cabinet? I know in OTL he was hoping to become the Secretary of Transportation due to his support for thd High Speed Rail before becoming the Secretary of Health and Human Services.

He left the HHS position because of Karl Rove undermining his proposals and proposing his own to Bush instead. With no Rove in the McCain Cabinet, Tommy would have a more active role if he were the HHS Secretary as well.

I could also see him challenging Russ Feingold in 2004 for a Senate Seat or Herb Kohl in 2006 if he doesn't get a cabinet spot.
 
Also, what about the Anthrax attacks that happened shortly after 9/11? I don't think think a McCain Presidency butterflies that away.
 
Is there any possibility of Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson being in the McCain Cabinet? I know in OTL he was hoping to become the Secretary of Transportation due to his support for thd High Speed Rail before becoming the Secretary of Health and Human Services.

He left the HHS position because of Karl Rove undermining his proposals and proposing his own to Bush instead. With no Rove in the McCain Cabinet, Tommy would have a more active role if he were the HHS Secretary as well.
I hadn't given thought to the rest of McCain's cabinet, honestly. Let's see...

I'm thinking Christine Todd Whitman, a former governor, seems more suited to Interior Secretary than mere EPA Administrator; Terry Branstad, as a bigwig in Iowa politics, is a natural choice for Agriculture; and when I looked at OTL's pick for Energy Secretary, Spencer Abraham,* I thought he sounded like a much better choice for Commerce. Maybe Elaine Chao can still get Labor. As to Tommy Thompson, I'm still not sure -- might be given Transportation, or possibly still HHS, or maybe McCain thinks his best position is remaining a big man in Wisconsin politics.
Also, what about the Anthrax attacks that happened shortly after 9/11? I don't think think a McCain Presidency butterflies that away.
Safe to say it still happens TTL then; can't cover every little event that happens.

*Interesting note -- while he had a number of business friendly legilslative proposals to his name as Senator, his only foray into energy policy was... proposing to abolish the titled Department. Well, that's the Bush Administration for you :rolleyes:
 
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Tommy is going to have to ascend either to a cabinet position or the Senate because I can't see him being Governor much past 2005 or 2006. If he's not tapped for a Cabinet spot he'll more than likely run for and win an unprecedented 5th Term in 2002. He was too much of a political dynamo to retire, but I think he was starting to get bored with being Governor and wanted to take his talents as a Reformer to a higher level.


Awesome TL by the way.
 
Fixed Box. Hoping for a southern Democrat in 2004 that can keep the upper south in play and the electoral map interesting. :D

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January to July 2003
When America seemed to be just starting to move on from the October Crises and Midterms, Al Gore announced that he would not be running for President again in 2004; Senator Wellstone had already thrown his hats into the ring (as had Kerry, for what that would be worth), but with this announcement, the floodgates came open. The quickest to jump at this opportunity was Gore's running mate, Dick Gephardt; Howard Dean also would join in the days following, and Al Sharpton and Carol Mosley Brown announced their candidacies for good measure (though ultimately, the former never got out of the low single digits in any state poll, while the latter fated even worse, dropping out of the race months before the first primary even started). Meanwhile Rick Davis, McCain's former Campaign Manager turned Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, left his White House position that same month to focus full time on putting together the campaign to re-elect the President; he was replaced by Communications Director and unofficial Chief Speechwriter Mark Salter. Not many took notice of this change in personnel, as few knew of the degree of access the Deputy Chief had to the President, despite Chief of Staff Boehner still technically being the superior.

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In the midst of all this activity came the February Incident in Iraq; the President declared that US Peacekeeping Forces had been attacked, and that America would make good on his threat to "remove the dangerous regime that has shown itself so contemptuous to the peace of mankind". And so the War in Iraq began.

As with any war, there are too many attributes and layers upon layers of factors to give any kind of truly comprehensive narrative in any one place, certainly not within the space of this post. One could focus on the international diplomatic gamesmanship of the war -- the arrangement with China has been discussed somewhat already; there was also Saddam's poor reading of Putin, and how Russia's essential non-action strained relations with her allies abroad; and perhaps most important to the region was the continuing American rapprochement with Iran, as secret negotiations in May began to open the latter's nuclear program to international inspections in exchange for loosening and even removing sanctions. It was these negotiations in the summer of 2003 that McCain would later use as leverage on the Ayatollah in later tensions with the regime. There was also strain between the US and Western European nations (though not Britain or Spain) resulting in months of the Lieberman State Department looking to minimize tensions with the French and others.

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While the Baathist Regime in Iraq fell in a matter of weeks to Coalition Forces, the work of rebuilding the country proved to be more difficult. Many of Jay Garner's decision as Director of Iraq's Reconstruction came under criticism by many in the President's own party; one op-ed in particular, signed by former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and others, took issue with the speed in which reconstruction was being moved along, saying that Garner was too trusting of former Baathist officials and making too willing to let them return to positions of authority, and that the July Elections should be delayed until an agreeable constitution could be written. But the President supported Garner, and the elections proceeded as scheduled. Meanwhile, while Saddam Hussein's sons would die in a gunfight days before the elections began, Saddam himself remained at large. He would remain so for far longer than Coalition Forces hoped, and the failure to capture him would lead to his reemergence in the second year of the war, which in turn would change the course of the conflict yet again. But all this was still in the months to come...
 
So... let's talk about elections in the Middle East.

July 2003 and February 2004
Five parties made up nearly 90% of the vote in the elections following the overthrow of Hussein -- the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq led by Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim; the Dawa Party, led by Ibrahim al-Jaafari; the Iraqi National Accord, led by Iyad Allawi; the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Jalal Talabani; and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Masoud Barzani. The only certainty prior to the election (that proved accurate) was that the Shia Islamist ISCI would not serve in any coalition with the secular INA, the latter of which prided itself on the mixed support from Sunni and Shia Iraqis. The ISCI assumed that Sunni turnout would be low enough (due to threats of Baathist violence) that between them and the Dawa, a Shia governing coalition could be formed; the INA hoped that they would be able to form a coalition with the two Kurdish parties; and everyone assumed said Kurdish parties would be working together. But all of these expectations were frustrated; it turned out that ISCI would also need at least one of the Kurdish parties to form a working majority in the Assembly, and that the INA would similarly also need the support of the Dawa. In the end, a the Shia Islamist Coalition was able to get the support of Masoud Barzani and the KDP, in exchange for a large level of Kurdish autonomy. (Talabani and the PUK, however, were hesitant to join; this split between the KDP and their offshoot party would have ripple effects on Iraqi and Kurdish politics for years to come.) It was this conservative coalition that would be responsible for drafting the nation's new constitution.

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Over half a year later, the neighboring Iran also had elections for their legislature. In the months leading up to the first round, word reached the press that the McCain Administration was in negotiations with the Iranian regime to normalize relations with Israel, to bring their infant nuclear research program in line to international inspection regime, and to forge a cooperation with the regime in fighting terrorist organizations on Iranian soil and in the wider Mideast. Then the President made a pivot that would (purportedly) have major implication on the upcoming elections in Iran and on the subsequent government -- he stated that further cooperation with the United States and benefits discussed (the removal of sanctions, etc) would be contingent upon the regime "showing a respect for the will of their people" and allowing the government to have democratic legitimacy; "if the Ayatollah wants to work with the United States and her allies, we need to know that we are working with the people of Iran, not just its self appointed leaders". To that end, he said that any candidates struck from Iranian ballots in the elections to come would have "serious consequences" on the ongoing negotiations.

At first, this carrot and stick approach seemed to have the desired effect, and the Council of Guardians banned only a minimal number of candidates in the elections. However, while the Conservatives failed to secure a majority of the delegates, the Reformists came far enough in second in the first round that, even with many seats left to be determined by runoff elections, a majority was now mathematically impossible for them. Still, the remaining reformist candidates fought the good fight and, months later, the conservatives were still without a governing majority in the assembly; the future of Iran was still very much up in the air.
 
June 2003 to January 2004
The Summer of 2003 was seen by many pundits in later years as the high point for the McCain Presidency -- while elections were being held far away in Iraq to determine its future, each house of Congress was passing its own version of Comprehensive Immigration Reform; each bill provided a similar combination of stronger border protections, penalties for the knowing hiring of unlawful aliens, a temporary guest worker program, a path to citizenship for persons currently in the country unlawfully, and other changes and overhauls to the country's immigration enforcement system. The bill had the support of leading Democrats and Republicans alike, with Senators Ted Kennedy and Arlen Spector leading the charge; and while some of the most of the votes against the law's passage came from within the President's own party, some very outspoken Democrats (Byron Dorgan the loudest among them) created a (false) media impression of opposition to the bill being as bipartisan as its support. (Many months later, these impressions would play an important role in the 2004 Election and subsequent political history, with neither major candidate for President managing to secure a majority of the latino vote.)

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It was also around this time that McCain's nominee to the Supreme Court began to show a noticeable impact on American jurisprudence, as two 5-4 decisions with far reaching implications were announced the same day in late June; and, in perhaps what should have come as no surprise, the decisions had something to infuriate and please both liberals and conservatives. On the one hand, Ewing v California (and its companion, Lockyer v. Andrade), overturned California's Three Strikes Law as being a violation of the Eighth Amendment, a decision which would come up time and again in political debates about crime policy for years afterword; and on the other there was Grutter v. Bollinger (and it's companion, Gratz) held that the University of Michigan Law School's admissions program, which sought to achieve a "critical mass" of minority students in their body, was in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment, further hindering affirmative action programs across the country.

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As summer gave way to fall, it became clear that the President would not be facing a primary challenge and was secure in his party's nomination. To be sure, there had been some grumbling by conservatives -- pundits complained about his refusal to cuts taxes following the midterms (more than once dismissing such proposals by saying only "we're at war"), or for compromising too much with Democrats on policy issues, and there was plenty of discontent about his immigration bill; one tactless pundits even got into hot water for suggesting that McCain's status as a victim of torture had made him "soft" on the use of American power (citing "leniency" to former Baathists in Iraq's reconstruction, and even the continued upholding of the Geneva Convention against torture for terrorist suspects). But McCain had managed to keep his approval rating roughly at or above 60% since taking office (so far), and GOP leaders knew better than to challenge a good thing.

Meanwhile, the run-up to the Democratic Primaries saw a notable development -- while Carol Mosley Brown leaving the race days earlier had little impact, the decision by Senator Kerry to withdraw his name for consideration turned several heads. Though his campaign had started out with promise, he had spent the past several months coming under increasing criticism from party leaders and activists for pulling his punches on the incumbent President; it had become clear that Kerry's friendship and admiration for McCain would not make him the ideal candidate to challenge him for a second term, as he refused to stray from his promise of a "positive campaign of ideas" and, when criticizing his would be opponent, seldom using language stronger than pointing out his "passionate disagreement".

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The new landscape of the Democratic race took hold, as Gephardt started to consolidate support from the party establishment and moderates, while Wellstone and Dean competed for support from the liberal base, and Rev Sharpton continued to stay in the race. Months later, had results -- the District of Columbia's primary got some attention as Sharpton managed a narrow victory against the only other candidate to appear on the ballot, Senator Wellstone; days later, the Senator from Minnesota made up for this by decisively winning the Iowa Caucuses; and a week after that, Gephardt won his first decisive victory in New Hampshire. And with that, the 2004 Presidential Election had begun.
 
Would McCain go into Iraq?
I was sort of torn on that when I started; on the one hand, I don't see him or his administration twisting facts and pushing a regime change campaign as impervious to changing circumstances as OTL's Bush did; on the other, he was a committed neocon, who did support seeing Saddam Hussein thrown from power as a matter of policy, and was very hawkish on Iraq and in general OTL.

So I went with a scenario where different circumstances lead him into a similar war. Which he also carries out differently from OTL, you might have noticed.
 
So before getting into the election, I'm just going to take a moment here to catch us up on some minor pop culture butterflies, mostly at the US box office...

2003 and 2004
Pixar's first animated feature in 1995 was a massive box office hit, the second highest grossing film of the year; and there were signs in 2001 that showed CGI features could reliably dominate the box office, as Monster's Inc and Shrek became the third and fourth highest grossing films of the year, respectively. And in 2003 and 2004, this analysis was further confirmed, when Finding Nemo took its spot as the highest grossing film in North America in 2003, while Shrek 2 and The Incredibles took their spots as the two top films of 2004. True, this level of box office domination didn't necessarily apply overseas; the third Lord of the Rings film was the second biggest hit domestically and easily surpassed Nemo on the world stage, while the Harry Potter and Spiderman sequels fared better internationally than Pixar's foray into superhero stories. (It can also be argued the success of The Incredibles can also be attributed to the growing success of superhero films, as the sequels to X-Men and Spiderman stood as the fourth and third highest domestic grossing films respectively.)

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As computer animated films rose in box office power, another formerly sure thing faltered. Jim Carey had become one the biggest name actors in Hollywood by 2003, whose films (forays into drama aside) could always be counted on to make hundreds of millions of dollars. While he seemed to continue this trend in December 2003 with Lemony's Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, and in 2004 with Pirates of the Caribbean, these films managed positions as the fifth and sixth spot on their respective box office lists. When neither ended up making a sequel, Jim Carrey joked that his “time as a box office god has come to an end; now I'm just another, run of the mill legendary Hollywood actor”. (Years later, some amateur movie historians would wonder if the death of Tom Shadyac in early 2002 played a major role in Carrey's smaller ambitions in the latter aughts; some even considered his unrealized Bruce Almighty project, which was to star Carrey, to be among the greatest movies never made.)

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But perhaps the most interesting thing about the 2004 US Box Office was how it intersected with the election that year. Mel Gibson's Passion of the Christ had a, perhaps, predictable effect on religious discussions in the country that year; but the other major “political” film success of that year had an unpredictable story all its own...
 
February 2004
If the first primaries in January showed that Wellstone and Gephardt would be the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination, February 3rd (or "Mini Tuesday) showed that Howard Dean remaining in the race would still prove to be a factor. While Gephardt won an outright majority of the votes cast in his home state of Missouri, as well as the races in Delaware and South Carolina, he was also declared the winner of the New Mexico primary, due to the latter's remaining votes being split between his other two main competitors; adding to this, Dean managed to win a slim plurality of votes in Arizona, adding further momentum to his own campaign. The winner of the New Hampshire primary did manage to add North Dakota and Oklahoma to his victories that day, and managed to win an outright majority in the Washington caucuses; however, once again, Dean cut into his numbers as Michigan was turned into a three man race, and Maine went to the Governor of Vermont outright. Wellstone managed to gain the rest of DC's delegates in the city caucuses and do well in Wisconsin, but once again Dean split the left votes in Nevada, and Gephardt was declared the winner of that state as well. And then, on the same day that the liberal senator from Minnesota was winning the Hawaian caucuses hands down, the former House Majority leader was adding victories in Idaho and Utah to his accomplishments.

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And thus, going into Super Tuesday, Dick Gephardt was in the lead in terms of states won and delegates held.
 
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