June 2003 to January 2004
The Summer of 2003 was seen by many pundits in later years as the high point for the McCain Presidency -- while elections were being held far away in Iraq to determine its future, each house of Congress was passing its own version of Comprehensive Immigration Reform; each bill provided a similar combination of stronger border protections, penalties for the knowing hiring of unlawful aliens, a temporary guest worker program, a path to citizenship for persons currently in the country unlawfully, and other changes and overhauls to the country's immigration enforcement system. The bill had the support of leading Democrats and Republicans alike, with Senators Ted Kennedy and Arlen Spector leading the charge; and while some of the most of the votes against the law's passage came from within the President's own party, some very outspoken Democrats (Byron Dorgan the loudest among them) created a (false) media impression of opposition to the bill being as bipartisan as its support. (Many months later, these impressions would play an important role in the 2004 Election and subsequent political history, with neither major candidate for President managing to secure a majority of the latino vote.)
It was also around this time that McCain's nominee to the Supreme Court began to show a noticeable impact on American jurisprudence, as two 5-4 decisions with far reaching implications were announced the same day in late June; and, in perhaps what should have come as no surprise, the decisions had something to infuriate and please both liberals and conservatives. On the one hand,
Ewing v California (and its companion,
Lockyer v. Andrade), overturned California's Three Strikes Law as being a violation of the Eighth Amendment, a decision which would come up time and again in political debates about crime policy for years afterword; and on the other there was
Grutter v. Bollinger (and
it's companion,
Gratz) held that the University of Michigan Law School's admissions program, which sought to achieve a "critical mass" of minority students in their body, was in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment, further hindering affirmative action programs across the country.
As summer gave way to fall, it became clear that the President would not be facing a primary challenge and was secure in his party's nomination. To be sure, there had been some grumbling by conservatives -- pundits complained about his refusal to cuts taxes following the midterms (more than once dismissing such proposals by saying only "we're at war"), or for compromising too much with Democrats on policy issues, and there was plenty of discontent about his immigration bill; one tactless pundits even got into hot water for suggesting that McCain's status as a victim of torture had made him "soft" on the use of American power (citing "leniency" to former Baathists in Iraq's reconstruction, and even the continued upholding of the Geneva Convention against torture for terrorist suspects). But McCain had managed to keep his approval rating roughly at or above 60% since taking office (so far), and GOP leaders knew better than to challenge a good thing.
Meanwhile, the run-up to the Democratic Primaries saw a notable development -- while Carol Mosley Brown leaving the race days earlier had little impact, the decision by Senator Kerry to withdraw his name for consideration turned several heads. Though his campaign had started out with promise, he had spent the past several months coming under increasing criticism from party leaders and activists for pulling his punches on the incumbent President; it had become clear that Kerry's friendship and admiration for McCain would not make him the ideal candidate to challenge him for a second term, as he refused to stray from his promise of a "positive campaign of ideas" and, when criticizing his would be opponent, seldom using language stronger than pointing out his "passionate disagreement".
The new landscape of the Democratic race took hold, as Gephardt started to consolidate support from the party establishment and moderates, while Wellstone and Dean competed for support from the liberal base, and Rev Sharpton continued to stay in the race. Months later, had results -- the District of Columbia's primary got some attention as Sharpton managed a narrow victory against the only other candidate to appear on the ballot, Senator Wellstone; days later, the Senator from Minnesota made up for this by decisively winning the Iowa Caucuses; and a week after that, Gephardt won his first decisive victory in New Hampshire. And with that, the 2004 Presidential Election had begun.