Matthias Corvinus dies in 1471

Say in late September 1471 Matthias Corvinus dies as result of 'classic' horse riding accident. At the same time Poles gathered forces to install Casimir, later saint, second son of Polish King, on the throne in Buda. IOTL Polish expedition was failure, Jagiellons understimated Matthias and support for Casimir among Hungarian nobles was much smaller than expected. But it was OTL. ITTL sudden death of Hungarian King would change situation drastically-death of Matthias would be seen as sign of God likely-usurper died once rightful heir claimed throne of his uncle. Casimir would likely get support of magnates, hoping to increase their position with teenager on the throne. But young Casimir was not the same person as his older brother, Vladislaus rex bene. Saint Casimir was regarded as most inteligent and capable son of Casimir IV of Poland. He was also pious Catholic, even zealot, but his piety was in large part result of tuberculosis-he fell ill around 1480, knowing he is going to die soon he spend his last years fasting and praying and refused to marry (his father wanted to marry him to Kunigunde of Austria). Perhaps Hungarian climate would serve his health better and he'll not fell ill ITTL. Casimir on Hungarian throne is good news for his brother and father-he'll not fight with Vladislaus for Czech throne, his main concern would be Ottomans, thus Jagiellons have better relations with Papacy. Casimir would recive support of other Jagiellon realms against Turks and cooperation between brothers would be better without Vladislaus messing things like IOTL. Also ITTL John Albert would not get position of head of Dynasty after Casimir IV's death. Jagiellon camp would be lead by Hungary, ruled by favourite son of the old king.
Being healthly ITTL Saint Casimir (I wonder if he'll be saint *here* as king-crusader?) would marry-is Kunigunde of Austria still most likely choice for him?
 
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ITTL there is no three-sided conflict between Habsburg, Jagiellons and Corvinus. With Matthias out of the game rivalization is limited to Habsburgs and Jagiellons. Emperor Frederick was sluggish and slow in making decisions, so he'll not prevent Casimir from taking Hungary, just like he could not prevent his brother from taking Bohemia. How do you think he'll react to proposition of Kunigunde + Casimir match in TTL situation? Such marriage was considered IOTL, when Cas was just heir to the Polish throne. Now, when he is King of Hungary (and is healthly) , is that match more likely?
 
ITTL Vladislaus is undisputed ruler of whole Bohemian Crown. So he will likely consumate his marriage with Barbara Hohenzollern-she'll not lose her dowry to John II the Mad, because there is no Matthias around to back John's claims to Głogów/Glogau.
 
ITTL there is no three-sided conflict between Habsburg, Jagiellons and Corvinus. With Matthias out of the game rivalization is limited to Habsburgs and Jagiellons. Emperor Frederick was sluggish and slow in making decisions, so he'll not prevent Casimir from taking Hungary, just like he could not prevent his brother from taking Bohemia. How do you think he'll react to proposition of Kunigunde + Casimir match in TTL situation? Such marriage was considered IOTL, when Cas was just heir to the Polish throne. Now, when he is King of Hungary (and is healthly) , is that match more likely?

Well, the question shows up whether Friedrich puts his claim to the Hungarian throne forward like his son did at Mats' OTL death. Freddie claimed the Hungarian throne from the death of Ladislaus the Posthumous so it's not impossible (if unlikely) IIRC. I don't think it's completely out of left field that he'll offer Kunigunde either.

Also, would the Hungarians let Kasimir retain his rights to the Polish throne TTL? The Hungarians weren't happy before under the Polish-Hungarian unions and sought to break them at earliest convenience, so why would they in this situation?
 
Well, the question shows up whether Friedrich puts his claim to the Hungarian throne forward like his son did at Mats' OTL death. Freddie claimed the Hungarian throne from the death of Ladislaus the Posthumous so it's not impossible (if unlikely) IIRC. I don't think it's completely out of left field that he'll offer Kunigunde either.

Also, would the Hungarians let Kasimir retain his rights to the Polish throne TTL? The Hungarians weren't happy before under the Polish-Hungarian unions and sought to break them at earliest convenience, so why would they in this situation?
Renouncing rights to the Polish throne is impossible, because Polish throne is elective and no one have such rights ;)

But Casimir IV have enough sons to divide four crowns between them. With Casimir Junior being King of Hungary, he'll designate John Albert to the Polish throne (he has no rights to do it in theory, but in practice he'll say: ''my dear nobles, please elect my third son, John Albert, to the Polish throne after my death, OK?" and it would be enough :) ). Things will complicate after death of John and Alexander, but with less stress on them they could live longer.
Considering Freddie's problems to keep Austria IOTL, not even mentioning claiming Hungary, he should be content if Casimir concentrate his energy in Balkans, fighting Ottomans. He could make deal with Jagiellons: "OK, you could keep Bohemia and Hungary, but you will always use your electoral vote from Bohemia to support Habsburg candidate, and Austria is mine, mine, and only mine, unlike my daughter's hand, which is yours".
Casimir Junior could take path of his father-he took throne at age 13, in country dominated by magnates, just like daddy, who happened to be most successful Jagiellon monarch ever.
 

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
I am wondering if the Ottomans in this TL manage to defeat the Hungarian Kingdom like they did IOTL Battle of Mohács, if not you would have a powerful Hungary being a power in Central Europe and the Ottomans would focus their efforts on annexing either more of Persia or Morocco into their empire.
 
Hungary would do much better than IOTL-it is hard to imagine worse rulers than Vladislaus II and Louis II. Both are butterfled away ITTL. Kingdom of Hungary would not be Habsburg puppet by 1526, with monarch far more capable than Louis II.
Casimir would ally with middle nobles against big magnates, like his father did in Poland, and with Zapolya's fraction-Zapolyas, despite being richest magnates in Hungary were allied with middle nobility and opposed Habsburg influence.
Unfortunate Sigismund Jagiellon has not only one more brother to outlive, he'd have also bunch of nephews. But there is still hope for him, in Sweden. Sigismund was proposed Swedish throne IOTL in 1507 by Swedish rebells, but Sigismund recently took Polish and Lithuanian thrones after his deceased brother and there was reconciliation between Poland and Denmark at the same time. ITTL this option could be taken more seriously by Jagiellons.
@BlueFlowwer , what do you think about Sigismund I Jagiellon, King of Sweden? :)
 
Would Hungary really be better off with an absent monarch half of the time? Managing two big realms (both with really strong aristocratic governments) is a really though task.
 
Would Hungary really be better off with an absent monarch half of the time? Managing two big realms (both with really strong aristocratic governments) is a really though task.
Casimir Junior would be only King of Hungary. Other realms would be ruled by his brothers (Vladislaus-Bohemia, John Albert-Poland, Alexander-Lithuania).
 
Do there could be Jagiello-Habsburg treaty + marriage (Casimir with Kunugunde) in late 1480s. Vladislaus' rule in Bohemia hardly could be questioned and Habsburgs would need Jagiellon electoral vote soon.
So whom is Albert of Bavaria going to marry ITTL?
 
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