Mastering Madagascar

Rosenheim

Donor
Before the 1st Franco-Hova war of 1883, both the Great Britain and France hotly contested whose sphere of influence the strategically placed island of Madagascar would be in. After the war, the Kingdom of Madagascar was a tightly run French puppet until 1890, when in exchange for influence over Zanzibar and east Africa, the British allowed the French to declare it a protectorate, leading to the 2nd Franco-Howa war and overthrow of the Merina Monarchy.

Part of the reason Britain was willing to accept French control of Madagascar was its declining importance as a “pit-stop” on the way to the East. With the Suez Channel funneling ships from the Mediterranean, British influence was no longer as important. The opening of the channel also disturbed much of Madagascar’s economy, previously grown fat from the dangerous trade routes. (Both from trade and piracy.)

While the 1st Franco-Hova war is too late to have Madagascar realistically become more than a satellite to either France or Britain, what changes would need to take place in the early 1800s to make a “civilized” native (rather than white settlement) Madagascar a reality. Due to its relatively low population (2 to 3 million, from what I can find) and somewhat disease-prone climate, I would expect that the result would be more similar to “Mongkut and Chulalongkorn” Siam than “Meji” Japan.

In this vein, I have several more questions.

1. How prominently was the “sorabe” script used in Madagascar? (The sorabe script being an Arabic-based alphabet for transcribing the Malagasy language.)

2. How large was the slave population during the period from 1800-1883?

3. Could Madagascar survive simply by playing Britain and France off each other, or if not, what concessions would be made to keep its independence?

Thanks in advance for consideration.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
On 3. Madagascar is in the same kind of position Thailand, Ethiopia, Afghanistan and Iran were in, so I'll go with a strong maybe. They need to either bloody noses (Afghanistan, Ethiopia) or to be able to play diplomacy better than the europeans (Thailand, Iran).
 
I think your best bet looks to be to have Radama I live longer (he was only 35 when he died. May require him being less of an alcoholic as a child). He'd signed an agreement with the British oulawing the Slave Trade in Madagascar, and in return was recognised as King of the whole Island by Britain. His death led to a major sucession crisis from which Queen Ranavalona I would emerge victorious and kick the British out. A more stable Madagascar in this early period (and judging by his father Radama should live to about 1850-1860), will help greatly. We can presume that a son (either Radama II or Andrianampoinimerina II) would have some measure of westernised education, and so could be shrewd enough to acknowledge simple ceding of a few treaty ports as commercial bases to secure his independence. In any case, Madagascar would probably be pro-British rather than pro-French ITTL.
 

Rosenheim

Donor
One of the main difficulties, I would assume, in a Pro-Western Madagascar would be keeping the aristocracy in line. In OTL, Radama II ruled only a few years before being assassinated for serious concessions to the French. In order to keep the nobility in line while still modernizing, Madagascar would need a wily, intelligent and shrew leader (be it king or advisior).

Question: If Madagascar modernized, is it likely to remain an agriculture and trade based economy, or would it try to build up industry?
 
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