Massacre at the Berlin Wall

What if, following the bungled press conference of November 9th, a force within the East German government had authorised lethal force on the crowds (as was the worry of some at the time), and at least some border guards complied?

East Germany is still doomed nonetheless, but what effect does it have on the next few weeks and German reunification?
 
What if, following the bungled press conference of November 9th, a force within the East German government had authorised lethal force on the crowds (as was the worry of some at the time), and at least some border guards complied?

East Germany is still doomed nonetheless, but what effect does it have on the next few weeks and German reunification?
Allegedly there had been the order to NVA troops to intervene but the high command refused.
 
On November 3, Egon Krenz (chairman of the state council and general secretary of the SED) signed the order 11/89 in view of the announced large-scale demonstration in Berlin on the following day. It said:

"The use of the firearm in connection with possible demonstrations is generally prohibited".

This order was also valid on 9. of November.

So under these circumstances, a violent confrontation on November 9. is impossible. If an individual guard had opened fire without orders, he would have been arrested immediately.

Krenz and most of the central commitee and government wanted a peacefull solution under all circumstances.

For this scenario to work, you need a POD way further back.
 
There was neither the will among the NVA or orders from the DDR to allow it to happen, so it’s pretty difficult to have this scenario happen. As a rule, the collapse of the Eastern Bloc states was mostly passive on the part of the government. You’d need a PoD with stronger opposition to the fall and more stomach for something along the lines of Prague ‘56.
 
There was neither the will among the NVA or orders from the DDR to allow it to happen, so it’s pretty difficult to have this scenario happen. As a rule, the collapse of the Eastern Bloc states was mostly passive on the part of the government. You’d need a PoD with stronger opposition to the fall and more stomach for something along the lines of Prague ‘56.
This. It's certainly not impossible for one, or even a few, of the Grenztruppen to fire (specially if they are themselves attacked or feel threatened) but I suspect that they'd pretty much immediately be shot themselves.
 
West German Police and NATO gradually escalate their response.
It is important to be seen primarily as a West German Police response.

West German Police - and NATO soldiers - fire smoke grenades to ruin aim.
West German Police rush demonstrators away from wall.
Loud speakers tell East German police to cease fire.
If East German Police continue firing, West Germans fire smoke directly at East German Police shooters.
I firing continues, West Germans reply with an intense burst of blank small-arms fire (rifle calibre machine guns) warning shots above the crowd. They also fire plenty of illumination rounds over East German Police positions.
Searchlights pointed directly at East German observation posts also ruin aim.
West German loudspeakers repeat orders to cease fire.
 
Without support from the Soviet Union, a relatively short civil war in the GDR, possibly with volunteers from the West
 
On November 3, Egon Krenz (chairman of the state council and general secretary of the SED) signed the order 11/89 in view of the announced large-scale demonstration in Berlin on the following day. It said:

"The use of the firearm in connection with possible demonstrations is generally prohibited".

This order was also valid on 9. of November.

So under these circumstances, a violent confrontation on November 9. is impossible. If an individual guard had opened fire without orders, he would have been arrested immediately.

Krenz and most of the central commitee and government wanted a peacefull solution under all circumstances.

For this scenario to work, you need a POD way further back.

Yeah, you probably need Krenz replaced in some hardliner coup. Or, go a little further back, and have Honecker institute a purge. Of course, the question then would be how Gorby would react to that.
 
Yeah, you probably need Krenz replaced in some hardliner coup. Or, go a little further back, and have Honecker institute a purge. Of course, the question then would be how Gorby would react to that.
Or Gorabatchow is couped away by old fashioned Soviet hardliners who give green light for a purge in Warsaw Pact countries with Soviet backing.
 
I think any such escalation might have started, not at the top level, but very much down, right at the border. With all the confusion, pushing, screaming and demanding, it would have been easy for some border guard to be acidentaly thrown down. Feeling threatned/scared he fires, hits someone. More screams, someon throws a rock at the guard or another, and the rest of the guards on their own could start firing. Before even a junior officer could scream "cease firing" and be obeyed, dozens of rounds would have gone off...
 
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