Mafeking was a strange set-up. According to Pakenham: .."in September, when Smuts had proposed the blitzkrieg, ther had been only three small contingents of the British army close to the republis: 500 men of Baden-Powell's irregulars at Mafeking.. 400 ... at Kimbrley and 2,000 at Ladysmith.."
It could have been done immediately instead of a "real" siege.
On the other hand, there could also have been a dash to Durban, which probably would have succeeded in closing off Natal.
The Boer's did not want to go (much) beyond the frontiers as they still hoped for soem sort of solution, not taking into account that it was the least thing Milner wanted.
Also according to PakenhamL
Cronje's message to Baden-Powell, 29 October 1899:
"it is understood that you have armed Bastards, Fingos and Baralongs against us - in this you have committed an enormous act of wickedness ... reconsider the matter, even if it cost you the loss of Mafeking ... disarm your blacks and thereby act the part of a white man in a white man's war" Now, there were plenty of black people being affected by the war, both in concentration camps, where the conditions were even worse than in the "white" camps. Even today, the number of black people succeumbed is not known.
However, the farce was kept up:
"To Colonel Baden-Powell.
I see in the Bulawayo Chronicle that your men in Mafeking play cricket on Sundays and give concerts and balls on Sunday evenings.
In case you would allow my men to join in the same it would be very agreeable to me as outside Mafeking there are seldom any of the fair sex and there can be no merriment without their being present...
Wishing you a pleasant day,
I remain your obliging friend
S. Eloff. Commander of Johannesburg Commando
Reply:
"Sir,
I beg to thank you for your letter of yesterday.... I should like nothing better - after the match in which we are at present engaged is over. But just now we are having our innings and have so far scored 200 days, not out, against the bowling ofg Cronje, Snijman, Botha.. and we are having a very enjoyable game.
I remain, yours truly
RSS Baden-Powell
Mafeking should have fallen pretty fast. Any other commander but Cronje could have done it, any other commander but Baden-Powell would have lost it.
The Boer's went aboput it pretty half-hearted and Mafeking only got its reputation and significance because of the bravado.
Kimberley and Ladysmith were more important ( I believe), and had also it's number of characters: Rhodes in Kimberly, White in Ladysmith, etc. Churchill on the prowl.
If Mafeking had fallen early, I don't think there would have been any impact at all.
If it had fallen as a result of the siege, it would have hardened the sentiments in the UK even more, and I believe it was pretty bad already.
It could have ranked with Kabul and the other lost causes.
That said, I doubt there would be any slaughter of the white part of the garrison, but the black population would have been killed off.
Even Smuts was given to whole-sale murder of un-armed back people, the one's trekking home after being evicted from the mines.
So much for "white man's war"
Ivan