Mass casualty IRA attacks in Britaim

Suppose the IRA did not call in bomb warnings but rather waged it's bombing campaign in mainland Britain with the express purpose of causing civilian casualties.
 
Suppose the IRA did not call in bomb warnings but rather waged it's bombing campaign in mainland Britain with the express purpose of causing civilian casualties.

The SAS gets a free hand to hunt them in NI, the Republic comes under pressure to suppress those in the Republic, I'd guess that American support for the IRA is reduced...
 
The SAS gets a free hand to hunt them in NI, the Republic comes under pressure to suppress those in the Republic, I'd guess that American support for the IRA is reduced...

America's support would be severely reduced to being nonexistent as there will be zero tolerance of mass casualty events in the UK like that, CIA and MI6 and FBI and MI5 would work together hand in hand to crack down on the IRA and its supporters
 
It's worth saying that the IRA, at least at the start of the Troubles, were not trying to create casualties, they were trying to cut profits. The bomb warnings were the most important part of the operation, the bombs themselves were only necessary to make sure that warnings would be listened to. Any of them actually going off under any but controlled conditions was a failed mission.

When the fight became messier, more chances were taken, splinter groups deviated from the plan, on the other side warnings were ignored, unionist groups engaged in retaliatory attacks, and eventually some of these groups decided that targeting civilians was the way to go.

Don't get me wrong, making the bomb and putting it where it can hurt someone is enough for a conviction. But it's still true that the London bombings IRL were not primarily intended to kill British civilians, they were intended to shut down portions of London to put financial pressure on the UK.


If there were a serious effort at a mass casualty operation, the Troubles last to today. We'd have a reciprocal campaign of mass casualty bombings in the Republic, I don't mean the UK would not respond with airstrikes, but unionist groups would respond with bombings. SAS or other special forces would operate on both sides of the border, some would eventually be arrested in the Republic, or shoot the wrong people when here, and it would be international news.

Forget the Celtic Tiger, and possibly accept Ireland as a NATO member, with foreign bases, since we clearly can't handle our own criminal/terrorist element.
 
Let us get some points clear.

The Government of the Irish Republic. it's Police and Army were allies in the battle against terrorism with the British Government and it's forces.

PIRA was an extraordinarily leaky organisation so the UK security forces had a better idea of it's membership than it's own command. The Unionist terrorists were little better and also indulged in attacks on civilians.

If PIRA directed itself to mass UK civilian casualties (and one has to conclude that some in it and splinter groups outside did exactly that) the armed response would be directed at the terrorists. Not at the Republic who was an ally. That would be about as logical as attacking the USA for 9/11 as US planes were used flying from US airports.

The aim of both governments was to achieve the rule of law. Not of the bomb and bullet. PIRA could have been taken out within 48 hours in principle but that would fail to achieve the objective of rule by law.

As an ex resident of Manchester I can assure you that PIRA did exactly what you suggest in blowing up a large part of Manchester city centre with mass civilian casualties.

Using the present definition of states aiding terrorism could the USA be classed as such? After all the bombing campaign was largely paid for by USA money. The Unionists terrorists were paupers by comparison. Reduced to robberies to fund their arms acquisitions.
 
Have to correct you there - no one was killed in the Manchester bombing

Wasn't through lack of trying though

Take the 1996 bombing of the Arndale shopping centre - they used a 1500 kg bomb!

It injured 206 people - most whom had already been evacuated and where at least 1/2 mile away!

Sinn Fein was badly damaged politically as they where shown to be unable to control certain elements of the PIRA and were roundly criticised by not only the British PM but by the US President and the Taoiseach.

I can easily see Britain taking the high road and sticking to the rule Law in the case of heavy casulties.

Especially with the expected level of international condemnation and particularly post the Good Friday agreement
 
SAS operators were arrested in the Republic on at least one occasion IOTL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flagstaff_hill_incident

If the conflict turned into the kind of tit-for-tat casualty focused thing that this thread proposes, incidents like this would be far more common. Irish soldiers will never go into the North (maybe some Gardai), but in this scenario, British soldiers will be crossing the border routinely.

I can't believe I didn't remember this incident, I must have read about it at some point.
 
I did have the 1996 Manchester bombing particularly in mind, and that doesn't really count, as the IRA had called in a warning, but imagine if it hadn't and the bomb had gone off without any warnING and thus without the area being evacuated?
 
I did have the 1996 Manchester bombing particularly in mind, and that doesn't really count, as the IRA had called in a warning, but imagine if it hadn't and the bomb had gone off without any warnING and thus without the area being evacuated?

Then you have the Enniskillen bomb with even more casualties and even more backlash against the 'RA in GB, NI and the Free State.
 
Then you have the Enniskillen bomb with even more casualties and even more backlash against the 'RA in GB, NI and the Free State.

Funny how the Dublin/Monaghan bombings which had even more didn't do much against the Loyalist groups?
 
A TL I've always though about having a crack at is based on the coded warning for Manchester not happening for some reason (accident, error etc.) and that it goes off.

Obviously massive casualties on a scale not seen before, but I thought about focusing on a bus load or two of Russian or German football fans getting killed and the resulting fallout. Russia played Germany at Old Trafford the following day as part of Euro 1996. What would be the impact of 120 foreign football fans passing the bomb at detonation?
 
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