Mary Tudor Has a Son

What if Mary Tudor's famous phantom pregnancy ended up being real and she gave birth to a son in 1555. Assuming she still dies in 1558.
 
If I'm not mistaken Act of Parliament makes Philip automatically regent for three year old son Henry IX/Philip II. But he's needed in Spain, where he's king. At this point his sister Joanna, Dowager Princess of Portugal has been ruling in his stead since 1554.

Elizabeth is probably married off to a Catholic, maybe the Emanuele Filiberto, Duke of Savoy or Charles, Archduke of Austria, as soon as the child is born. Or maybe imprisoned instead. She is, in theory, her nephew's heir and his most dangerous opponent.
 
The english nobles are not gonna like the king of Spain serving as regent. Philip's best choice is to find a suitable regent in his stead. To be honest I'm not sure that the toddler will survive his childhood...
 
The english nobles are not gonna like the king of Spain serving as regent. Philip's best choice is to find a suitable regent in his stead. To be honest I'm not sure that the toddler will survive his childhood...
Yeah, Mary and Philip's child has a 50/50 chance of dying young (or at least not living to reproduce) or having debilitating health problems, whether mental or physical.
 
If I'm not mistaken Act of Parliament makes Philip automatically regent for three year old son Henry IX/Philip II. But he's needed in Spain, where he's king. At this point his sister Joanna, Dowager Princess of Portugal has been ruling in his stead since 1554.

Elizabeth is probably married off to a Catholic, maybe the Emanuele Filiberto, Duke of Savoy or Charles, Archduke of Austria, as soon as the child is born. Or maybe imprisoned instead. She is, in theory, her nephew's heir and his most dangerous opponent.
The Duke of Savoy will be already engaged at the time of Mary’s death so Elizabeth will be married to Archduke Karl (as I think Mary (and her council) would keep her sister unmarried for at least the first years of life of her kid...

As Philip and Mary’s son would be also sovereign of Burgundy the situation will become much interesting as that lands would be likely ruled by London and not by Madrid after the birth of Henry IX
 
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The Duke of Savoy will be already engaged at the time of Mary’s death so Elizabeth will be married to Archduke Karl (as I think Mary (and her council) would keep her sister unmarried for at least the first years of life of her kid...

As Philip and Mary’s son would be also sovereign of Burgundy the situation will become much interesting as that lands would be likely ruled by London and not by Madrid after the birth of Henry IX
I completely forgot that he's supposed to marry Margaret of France as part of the Treaty of Cateau-Cambrésis. Same with Mary and Philip's kid being entitled to Burgundy.

I wonder what will happen once Don Carlos is deemed unfit to succeed his father. Henry would be heir to the Spanish dominions as well.

I don't think this possible England-Burgundy-Spain union would sit well with any of the three parties.
 
An England- Burgundy union actually does seem quite viable? If this spain England burgundy union were to happen I think it’s likely the Dutch and English would break off together.
 
Well first of all, baby Henry/Philip/John (not sure of the name) would have a pretty fantastic inheritance, as the marriage contract between Mary I and Felipe II stated that their son was to inherit not only England and Ireland, but also the Spanish Netherlands. Considering that the Spanish tried to detach the Netherlands several times, that should work well. Now, second, everything will depend on dates. You have the Prince of Wales born in April /May 1555 (the estimated date for Mary to give birth according to her doctors), a year or so before his grandfather abdicated and divided his lands between his son and brother. Now the marriage contract made Mary's son heir of England and the Netherlands, so I'm not sure if the Netherlands passes to Felipe or directly to his son (depends on what Charles wants to do). What happens to the Netherlands is a big deal, but I'll come back to that later. Right now we're focusing on England. This brings us to Lady Elizabeth.

She's a hard one to figure out for everyone, including Mary herself. Elizabeth was locked up in the Tower from Wyatt's rebellion to shortly before the would-be birth of her nephew in 1555, yet Mary resisted called by her council during this time to execute her because there was no proof that her sister had collaborated with the rebels or had any design upon her life. Now that is likely to change with the birth of her son, as, by default, Elizabeth is now a direct threat. And everyone, including Elizabeth, would know it. Any health problem and any illness of the Prince will be blamed on Elizabeth. Any plot by her supporters, any moved by the exiled Protestants, any threat within the realm really, will put Elizabeth's life in danger. Elizabeth wasn't stupid; she would be well aware that her life would be in danger as long as she remains a viable threat, ie unmarried and Protestant. So she, Mary, and Felipe, will have to make some hard decisions. Quite frankly Elizabeth will have to get married to a foreign Prince, or convert and enter a convent outside of England. If not, she risks arrest and execution or poisoning. @isabella , you pointed out that the Duke of Savoy was betrothed to Henri II's sister Margaret by 1559, but not between 1555 and early 1558. So Emanuele Filiberto would be a viable candidate for Elizabeth's hand.

The other question becomes that of the regency. Felipe was named Regent under the Treason Act 1554, but there's no chance of Felipe remaining in England to act as his son's regent, so does he appoint a deputy or would Parliament pass a new regency act? TBH I can't really think of any ready-made regent that could rule England for thirteen years, so that's a big problem. He can't appoint a member of his family (Parliament wouldn't allow it) and there wasn't any ranking Catholic in a position to be appointed by Parliament. So that will be something that need's to be figured out.

Third, and finally, the Netherlands. As I said above, under the marriage contract, Mary and Felipe's son/daughter would inherit England and the Burgundian territories. Now the exact time Burgundy was supposed to pass to England was something I'm not sure about. In theory Charles V could pass Burgundy directly to his grandson or merely to his son like OTL. If passed to England directly, then in theory the Governor-Generals would be English instead of Spanish. Considering the long ties between England and the Netherlands, I have a feeling that the English would have a better understanding of the Burgundians in comparison to the Spanish, though I can't be sure considering there was talk of an English inquisition under Mary I.

These are just some preliminary thoughts, so I will post more later.
 
Well first of all, baby Henry/Philip/John (not sure of the name) would have a pretty fantastic inheritance, as the marriage contract between Mary I and Felipe II stated that their son was to inherit not only England and Ireland, but also the Spanish Netherlands. Considering that the Spanish tried to detach the Netherlands several times, that should work well. Now, second, everything will depend on dates. You have the Prince of Wales born in April /May 1555 (the estimated date for Mary to give birth according to her doctors), a year or so before his grandfather abdicated and divided his lands between his son and brother. Now the marriage contract made Mary's son heir of England and the Netherlands, so I'm not sure if the Netherlands passes to Felipe or directly to his son (depends on what Charles wants to do). What happens to the Netherlands is a big deal, but I'll come back to that later. Right now we're focusing on England. This brings us to Lady Elizabeth.

She's a hard one to figure out for everyone, including Mary herself. Elizabeth was locked up in the Tower from Wyatt's rebellion to shortly before the would-be birth of her nephew in 1555, yet Mary resisted called by her council during this time to execute her because there was no proof that her sister had collaborated with the rebels or had any design upon her life. Now that is likely to change with the birth of her son, as, by default, Elizabeth is now a direct threat. And everyone, including Elizabeth, would know it. Any health problem and any illness of the Prince will be blamed on Elizabeth. Any plot by her supporters, any moved by the exiled Protestants, any threat within the realm really, will put Elizabeth's life in danger. Elizabeth wasn't stupid; she would be well aware that her life would be in danger as long as she remains a viable threat, ie unmarried and Protestant. So she, Mary, and Felipe, will have to make some hard decisions. Quite frankly Elizabeth will have to get married to a foreign Prince, or convert and enter a convent outside of England. If not, she risks arrest and execution or poisoning. @isabella , you pointed out that the Duke of Savoy was betrothed to Henri II's sister Margaret by 1559, but not between 1555 and early 1558. So Emanuele Filiberto would be a viable candidate for Elizabeth's hand.

The other question becomes that of the regency. Felipe was named Regent under the Treason Act 1554, but there's no chance of Felipe remaining in England to act as his son's regent, so does he appoint a deputy or would Parliament pass a new regency act? TBH I can't really think of any ready-made regent that could rule England for thirteen years, so that's a big problem. He can't appoint a member of his family (Parliament wouldn't allow it) and there wasn't any ranking Catholic in a position to be appointed by Parliament. So that will be something that need's to be figured out.

Third, and finally, the Netherlands. As I said above, under the marriage contract, Mary and Felipe's son/daughter would inherit England and the Burgundian territories. Now the exact time Burgundy was supposed to pass to England was something I'm not sure about. In theory Charles V could pass Burgundy directly to his grandson or merely to his son like OTL. If passed to England directly, then in theory the Governor-Generals would be English instead of Spanish. Considering the long ties between England and the Netherlands, I have a feeling that the English would have a better understanding of the Burgundians in comparison to the Spanish, though I can't be sure considering there was talk of an English inquisition under Mary I.

These are just some preliminary thoughts, so I will post more later.
About Elizabeth Tudor I think she will likely stay imprisoned and under strict surveillance for at least another couple of years before Felipe and Mary decided her fate...

Netherlands were already assigned to Philip at the time of his wedding to Mary but being specifically assigned to his heir by Mary is possible who Philip would be fine with them being ruled by London (as Felipe was often quite pragmatic/sensible or at least much more than Mary I)...

In any case if Mary was well enough to have a children in 1555 is likely who she would die at least slightly later than OTL so Elisabeth of France will marry don Carlos, as was originally planned, instead of Felipe. Any child of Carlos and Isabel at this point would inherit Spain AND Portugal (if Sebastian still died childless) plus Italy and colonies while Felipe and Mary’s son would rule over England and Burgundy
 
A Howard family member as regent? They are catholics.
Not likely. The Howards were close relatives of Elizabeth, so their loyalties would be split. Furthermore, the 4th Duke of Norfolk (head of the family and likely choice for Regent if a Howard is chosen) was raised a Protestant, and he never really showed any inclinations towards Catholicism. So the Howards are out.

About Elizabeth Tudor I think she will likely stay imprisoned and under strict surveillance for at least another couple of years before Felipe and Mary decided her fate...

Netherlands were already assigned to Philip at the time of his wedding to Mary but being specifically assigned to his heir by Mary is possible who Philip would be fine with them being ruled by London (as Felipe was often quite pragmatic/sensible or at least much more than Mary I)...

In any case if Mary was well enough to have a children in 1555 is likely who she would die at least slightly later than OTL so Elisabeth of France will marry don Carlos, as was originally planned, instead of Felipe. Any child of Carlos and Isabel at this point would inherit Spain AND Portugal (if Sebastian still died childless) plus Italy and colonies while Felipe and Mary’s son would rule over England and Burgundy
Well Elizabeth was freed OTL to be a witness for the birth of her niece/nephew in April 1555, so that's likely to still happen. More likely Elizabeth is "encouraged" to stay in seclusion at Hatfield House, where she lived for much of her live before her accession, with access to the outside world limited. At least until another rebellion or plot breaks out.

I wasn't sure if the Netherlands had been fully assigned to Felipe yet or if it was supposed to pass to his children by Mary instead, so my bad. At the very least, if there's a moderate child over the water whose the heir to the Netherlands, rather than those evil Spaniards, then the Dutch might try and wait out Felipe rather than revolt for independence. Or at the least we could see Felipe transfer the Netherlands to his son early.

Well the OP wanted Mary to die on schedule, so I don't necessarily want to speculate on this part. However, you are technically right and Elisabeth de Valois would likely end up Princesa de Asturias. But Carlos being married doesn't meant he wouldn't still end up locked up and die in prison. Nor does it mean he would father surviving children. So we could end up with three Habsburg blocks (Spain-Italy, Austria-Bohemia-Hungary-Empire, and England-Burgundy) or we could end up with a massive western Empire (with the English King inheriting the Spanish Monarchy). Honestly not sure which sounds more interesting.
 
Not likely. The Howards were close relatives of Elizabeth, so their loyalties would be split. Furthermore, the 4th Duke of Norfolk (head of the family and likely choice for Regent if a Howard is chosen) was raised a Protestant, and he never really showed any inclinations towards Catholicism. So the Howards are out.



Well Elizabeth was freed OTL to be a witness for the birth of her niece/nephew in April 1555, so that's likely to still happen. More likely Elizabeth is "encouraged" to stay in seclusion at Hatfield House, where she lived for much of her live before her accession, with access to the outside world limited. At least until another rebellion or plot breaks out.

I wasn't sure if the Netherlands had been fully assigned to Felipe yet or if it was supposed to pass to his children by Mary instead, so my bad. At the very least, if there's a moderate child over the water whose the heir to the Netherlands, rather than those evil Spaniards, then the Dutch might try and wait out Felipe rather than revolt for independence. Or at the least we could see Felipe transfer the Netherlands to his son early.

Well the OP wanted Mary to die on schedule, so I don't necessarily want to speculate on this part. However, you are technically right and Elisabeth de Valois would likely end up Princesa de Asturias. But Carlos being married doesn't meant he wouldn't still end up locked up and die in prison. Nor does it mean he would father surviving children. So we could end up with three Habsburg blocks (Spain-Italy, Austria-Bohemia-Hungary-Empire, and England-Burgundy) or we could end up with a massive western Empire (with the English King inheriting the Spanish Monarchy). Honestly not sure which sounds more interesting.
I think pretty likely who Carlos will have children by Elisabeth as nothing suggest who he was unable to having them... Any surviving child of Carlos (so a single daughter would be enough) would inherit without doubt Portugal and Spain (plus Southern Italy and colonies) being ahead of anyone else in the line of succession (obviously a girl would marry either a son of Philip by a third wife or one of Philip’s Austrian nephews)
 
I think pretty likely who Carlos will have children by Elisabeth as nothing suggest who he was unable to having them... Any surviving child of Carlos (so a single daughter would be enough) would inherit without doubt Portugal and Spain (plus Southern Italy and colonies) being ahead of anyone else in the line of succession (obviously a girl would marry either a son of Philip by a third wife or one of Philip’s Austrian nephews)
I think that son of Carlos and Elisabeth would be preferable alternative to daughter, as he'd be king in his own right and person of his consort would be not that important.
 
I think that son of Carlos and Elisabeth would be preferable alternative to daughter, as he'd be king in his own right and person of his consort would be not that important.
A son would surely be better, I was saying who a daughter also would be able to inherit everything
 
A son would surely be better, I was saying who a daughter also would be able to inherit everything
Yes, she would but it could cause unrest from Henry IX who could claim the throne ahead of his niece if Carlos still died before his father, on the ground of blood proximity.
 
Yes, she would but it could cause unrest from Henry IX who could claim the throne ahead of his niece if Carlos still died before his father, on the ground of blood proximity.
No, he will not as Spain and its Empire including South Italy were clearly reserved to Carlos’ line... Plus Spain would like better the Queen of Portugal than the King of England in any case
 
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