Mary, Queen of Scots restored.

Not sure if this has been done before, so apologies if it has. But say through some military luck, Mary Queen of Scots manages to regain her throne in the period 1568-1570, what would change? How does this influence the religious issues within Scotland? If Mary has managed to remove some, if not all of the opposition to her rule during the war, how does this influence her governing policy? And what potential consequences could this have for the two kingdoms of Scotland and England? Who might Mary marry, if indeed she chooses to?
 
Not sure if this has been done before, so apologies if it has. But say through some military luck, Mary Queen of Scots manages to regain her throne in the period 1568-1570, what would change? How does this influence the religious issues within Scotland? If Mary has managed to remove some, if not all of the opposition to her rule during the war, how does this influence her governing policy? And what potential consequences could this have for the two kingdoms of Scotland and England? Who might Mary marry, if indeed she chooses to?

You'd think Mary might have learned her lesson from two disastrous marriages, but she was a romantic type and she's only 26-28 and the succession isn't really secure with only one kid. Accusations of her being a spouse-killer will also impede her marital prospects. Would Bothwell being off in Scandinavia make getting an annulment easier or harder?

There'd be a lot of domestic opposition, both on the grounds of religion and the fact that those noblemen who forced Mary out will not want her back for fear of her taking vengeance. Moray, if still alive, will be difficult (and his relations with his half-sister are probably unsalvageable after the York Inquiry and his presentation of the Casket Letters), as will the Lennoxes ("she killed our darling Darnley").

If James VI is raised Catholic his chances of getting England are diminished- especially if anti-Catholic xenophobia is still stirred up by wars with Spain and Catholic plots to assassinate Elizabeth. Though if Charlie Lennox still dies young and Elizabeth refuses to acknowledge the Seymour kids of Catherine Grey then heirs are somewhat thin on the ground- there was some iffiness surrounding the Stanley claimants (descendants of Eleanor Brandon) IIRC (Margaret Clifford Countess of Derby was in disgrace for the last 17 years of her life after making comments regarding Elizabeth's marriage negotiations with Anjou/Alencon, her son Ferdinando had the Hesketh Plot- though obviously a 1568-70 POD will alter these things).

Though if he's savvy James VI could see the way the wind is blowing and convert to Protestantism, either in opposition to his mother or after her death.

Much would also depend on how Mary's returning to Scotland- being released by Elizabeth (unlikely- I think Burghley and others were very suspicious of Mary) or being sprung by her supporters are very different scenarios. And obviously if English Catholics break Mary out of prison then there will be major consequences in England itself.
 
Alright very interesting, if she is sprung out by her supporters what consequences could that bring

Well, Elizabeth is pissed.

There'll likely be a crackdown on English Catholics (who will be expected of conniving at Mary's escape) or, alternatively, Mary's escape could either be the result of or cause a rising of English Catholics (as happened with Westmorland and Northumberland in 1569 IOTL).

It could also be the result of or cause Norfolk to do...something. He was kinda changeable/inconstant/vacillatory IOTL so I'm not sure what he'd do, though he was obviously linked to the northern rebels because his sister was Countess of Westmorland.

Anyhow, I'd imagine there'd be significant unrest in England either to assist in, or in the aftermath of, Mary's escape.

Whoever was in charge of Mary at the time is disgraced and likely accused of complicity by their enemies at court (their were whisperings about the Earl of Shrewsbury getting too close to his royal prisoner IOTL). Depending on timeline this could either be Richard Lowther (though he only had her for a few weeks and escaping from him wouldn't be that dramatic given he held her rather close to the border), Francis Knollys, Lord Scrope or Shrewsbury (though it might be a stretch for Mary to escape the Shrewsbury's castle of Tutbury and get all the way to Scotland without incident).

Knollys was obviously family-ish to the Queen (and his wife Catherine Carey is Lizzie's chief lady, though Catherine died in 1569) and Elizabeth was relatively kindly when Shrewsbury went really irascible and loopy later in life (not kind enough to give him more money though) but despite that I wouldn't want to be in either of their shoes if Mary escapes from their custody (of course if they're killed during Mary's escape they won't face Lizzie's wrath).
 
Well, Elizabeth is pissed.

There'll likely be a crackdown on English Catholics (who will be expected of conniving at Mary's escape) or, alternatively, Mary's escape could either be the result of or cause a rising of English Catholics (as happened with Westmorland and Northumberland in 1569 IOTL).

It could also be the result of or cause Norfolk to do...something. He was kinda changeable/inconstant/vacillatory IOTL so I'm not sure what he'd do, though he was obviously linked to the northern rebels because his sister was Countess of Westmorland.

Anyhow, I'd imagine there'd be significant unrest in England either to assist in, or in the aftermath of, Mary's escape.

Whoever was in charge of Mary at the time is disgraced and likely accused of complicity by their enemies at court (their were whisperings about the Earl of Shrewsbury getting too close to his royal prisoner IOTL). Depending on timeline this could either be Richard Lowther (though he only had her for a few weeks and escaping from him wouldn't be that dramatic given he held her rather close to the border), Francis Knollys, Lord Scrope or Shrewsbury (though it might be a stretch for Mary to escape the Shrewsbury's castle of Tutbury and get all the way to Scotland without incident).

Knollys was obviously family-ish to the Queen (and his wife Catherine Carey is Lizzie's chief lady, though Catherine died in 1569) and Elizabeth was relatively kindly when Shrewsbury went really irascible and loopy later in life (not kind enough to give him more money though) but despite that I wouldn't want to be in either of their shoes if Mary escapes from their custody (of course if they're killed during Mary's escape they won't face Lizzie's wrath).

Alright intriguing.

So say Mary escapes when she's being held near the border, I suspect the lowland lords would perhaps be split about her, Elizabeth is going to be pissed, and depending on how quickly she can gather support, I imagine Moray might switch his loyalties
 
Elizabeth might not necessarily be pissed. Her relationship with Mary was incredibly complicated and initially the English Queen was cautiously supportive of her cousin and hated the idea of supporting a rebellion against another anointed sovereign. Its not unthinkable that Elizabeth could decide to support Mary and send her back across the border with English troops. Unlikely, but not unthinkable. Of course, what a Marian restoration would look like is anyone's guess. She clearly had a good deal of support in Scotland (after all the civil war there lasted five years) so its not like she's returning highly unpopular. Morey would be out either way, can't see Mary trusting him again, though I'd guess imprisonment rather than execution. James VI would be raised Catholic. Other than those two things not sure. Marian Scotland isn't my strong suit.

Or you could have the Marians win the civil war. If that's the case then Elizabeth would be between a rock and a hard place. She'd either have to release Mary or keep her imprisoned, pissing off Scotland and the Catholic powers. At the least it wouldn't win her any powerful friends across the border.
 
Elizabeth might not necessarily be pissed.

But in that regard a scenario where Elizabeth chooses to release and support Mary is obviously different from one where Mary breaks out from custody (which would imply some flouting of Lizzie's authority both with Englishmen disobeying their Queen to help Mary escape and Mary for refusing her cousin's "hospitality").
 
Interesting so it seems either way Liz is stuck.

Furthermore could all the Protestant works be driven underground?
 
Top