Mary Queen of Scots dies in childbirth

What if Mary, Queen of Scots died in childbirth? let's say James VI dies too. The new King would be the Duke of Chatelherault , though Darnley and the Earl of Lennox have a powerful claim to the throne. Let's say though that the House of Hamilton is born. The Hamiltons have no claim to England, though. So, either Arbella Stuart or Anne Stanley succeeds Elizabeth I(an unlikely possibility is the bastard Edward Seymour). So, England and Scotland remain separate. What if?
 
Well assuming Mary and James dies then you have two claimants and a probable fight.

Henry Lord Darnley or his father Matthew Earl of Lennox - although Mary had refused him the Crown Matrimonial he does have a strong claim to the scots throne through his descent from James II. It was junior to that of the Hamilton's though. Of course he also has a claim to the English throne through his mother Margaret Douglas daughter of Margaret Tudor.

James Hamilton is in a better position to claim the throne he also has the benefit of numerous children and his eldest son (who by now is going insane) has been frequently proposed as a husband for either Mary or Elizabeth. HIs second son John is unmarried in 1566 and is an obvious match for

As to England - well the English Council in the early 60s almost certainly favoured Catherine Grey until her death after her their options narrowed somewhat. Elizabeth herself remained mute on the subject though even under these circumstances she is unlikely to reverse her own decision regarded Catherine's marriage and the illegitimacy of her two sons.
Pressure on her to marry remains high.
Under the third act of succession the heir is now the unlikely Lady Mary Grey and after her the Countess of Derby and her sons. Ignoring the act Margaret Douglas Countess of Lennox is now the strongest claimant.
 
What if Mary, Queen of Scots died in childbirth? let's say James VI dies too.

That's two PoDs, and the first alone is more... interesting. Because it means Darnley will be Regent of Scotland for his son. That's not going to go well. The question is how long Darnley can hold power (with some French support, possibly).

There will be a war between Darnley's Catholic faction and the Protestants.

One possibility is that Elizabeth intervenes on the Protestant side. If this is decisive, Darnley is run out of the country or killed or imprisoned. Elizabeth recognizes baby James as her heir, and has him raised in England. Someone de facto chosen by her is Regent of Scotland tlll James is grown; say in 1584.

Does he stay in England as heir presumptive, or go north?

If Elizabeth's "viceroy" is inept, there could be rebellions in Scotland for one of the rival claimants. The Hamiltons are stopped by the madness of their candidate. The Lennoxes are Catholic and their candidate is a known twit; if he's dead or in Elizabeth's control that stops that line too.
 
Mary and James dying is easily one PoD. Mary dies and so James dies. And if James VI survives, it prevents independent Scotland and a different English royalty, the objective of this PoD.
 
What about Anne Stanley?


Well in the 1560s Anne hadn't been born (she was the Countess of Derby's granddaughter)

Under Henry's final will in the late 1560s

Descendants of Mary Tudor Queen of France, Duchess of Suffolk

Lady Catherine Grey (about to die and has two illegitimate sons)
Lady Mary Grey (unwed at this point)
Lady Margaret Clifford Countess of Derby
Ferdinando Stanley Lord Strange
William Stanley

Strict male pref primogeniture

Mary Stuart Queen of Scots (died in your pod)
Margaret Douglas Countess of Lennox
Henry King Consort of Scots (Lord Darnley)
Charles Stuart
(then the above descendants of Mary Tudor)
 
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