So, let's assume Mary I of England doesn't have cancer but that it is a baby. She then dies at approximately same time as OTL giving birth to a daughter.
What happens next?
What happens next?
Mary I dies giving birth to a daughter
- Thread starter The Professor
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- elizabeth i mary i tudors
A Holy Shitstorm is bound to happen. A infant girl, with a foreign disliked father and religious turbulence is a receip for DISASTER
Holy Shitstorms are ten a penny in Tudor England! It's the kind of shit and how it storms I'm asking.
This would be uniquely bad. Does she manage to leave an amended will appointing a Regent, if she does who?
If she appoints Philip then Chaos Will Reign Supreme. Baby princess is as good as dead then.
Gardiner or Pole is on the short list. Appointing Felipe as regent wouldn't be a terrible idea, actually. Because he's a foreign king, he can't be johnny-on-the-spot, which means that real power will be exercised by a regent/regency council (with Catholics such as Gardiner/Pole, Howard, and a couple others). There's nothing (besides the regents) stopping them from educating little Queen Katherine (or Mary II) as being more religiously tolerant than her mama, since even Felipe thought that Mary was going too far with some of the things IIRC.
Most likely, the regent is Felipe (in name only), while power is exercised by a board of governors, on which leading Catholic nobles/clerics play a part IMO. The Lady Elizabeth will be married off - perhaps to Felipe or, more likely, Savoy (someone suitably Catholic) - so as to keep her away from the little queen by sending her abroad.
Pole as Archbishop of Canterbury would be an option but I don't think Gardiner would be viable as Regent unless he gets an Archbishopric. I agree Phillip would be an obvious choice and probably the most likely however it would be politically nightmarish. He is after all an unpopular foreign King. Not hard to imagine the substantial Protestant opposition making hay with that.
As for Elizabeth she is in a very difficult position but I don't think forcibly marrying her off abroad would be viable, she wouldn't consent and forcing her is a. difficult and b. probably counterproductive. Better to keep her under tight guard in the country possibly Catholic Lancashire.
Gardiner's bishop of Winchester, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets bumped up to Canterbury/York as soon as either is vacant (the archbishopric of York fell vacant in 1559 OTL until 1561, which isn't likely to happen here. Pole died in 1558, which leaves Canterbury open if the good Cardinal's death isn't butterflied by Mary's pregnancy). But, the archbishop of York in '59 (Nicholas Heath) was supposedly a more tolerant Catholic than Gardiner (bishop of Winchester) or Bonnet (bishop of London). So, Felipe might be pulling for Gardiner (if he gets a archbishopric), but the lords might prefer Heath (who already is an archbishop). Felipe has no real leg to stand on in England, so he likely bows to the inevitable. (It's not like the situation in the Netherlands where he was lord and master, here he has to be more pliable).
I'd say keeping her in-country is risky. She's gonna be a lightning rod (as she's already proved) for any and all non-Catholics. I expect that even if she is kept under house arrest, to expect more in the line of Wyatt's rebellion. Renard warned Mary that her throne would never be safe while Elizabeth breathed, and Gardiner worked to put her on trial. If Mary arranges the marriage during the pregnancy, and the suitor is already in England at the time of Queen Katherine/Mary II's birth, it's not as though they can say, once Mary's dead, "whoops sorry no marriage for you" without loss of face. Most likely, the gentleman caller is someone Felipe II knows he can keep in line (i.e. a Habsburg cousin, his son, D. Carlos, or the duque de Segorbe or the duke of Savoy), so I'd say it's more of a backup than counterproductive
I'd imagine Elizabeth would swiftly find a dodgy end, under Phillips orders.
That would kick up a worse storm.
Liz is currently under guard at Hatfield House where she remained OTL until Queen. TTL she'll stay put unless she can be moved somewhere better. Phillip may push for the Tower but the regency council needs resolving first.
That's one of the many reasons why she'll remain unmarried. Catholic canonical law held a marriage under duress is no marriage at all and Elizabeth did not consent to marriage despite the best efforts of a number of people during Mary's OTL reign. She'll remain under guard in England.
Might Elizabeth be more receptive to a marriage if she knew she wasn't going to gain the throne, especially if little Queen Catherine is thriving and hits like 3 years old all healthy and happy? Maybe she takes up Philip on his OTL offer and becomes Queen of Spain in order to at least match her sister in that regard? Or maybe agrees to a marriage to, say, the Duke of Savoy if she is confirmed heir and she can remain in England? If there's little hope of the English crown, she might be persuaded to consent to marriage, on the right terms.
Unlikely, she seems to have been a fairly committed if pragmatic Protestant and I can't see her consenting to any Catholic match and Felipe, Pole and Gardiner (sensibly) wouldn't consent to a Protestant match.
Leaving things open for the Grays and Stuarts, who both the blood of Henry VIII's sisters. I feel the Habsburgs wouldn't be happy to have the Francophiles in Scotland with a strong claim to England. Keeping the Elizabeth around means one step further away for any of those groups.
Honestly, the more I think about it the more a match with Felipe (if that's the spelling we're gonna go with) makes sense, because if she marries him, she can remain in England as his Regent, in a similar way to how Isabella of Portugal stood as Regent for Charles V during their marriage. Elizabeth is young enough to have a few children, and if the little Queen was to die, as infants do, Felipe now has control over the next Queen of England. Elizabeth enjoys the knowledge that, to do this, Felipe has to on some level legitimize not only her position as heir, but her legitimacy in general, and also the fact her children will hold a much higher status in Europe than they might have. It cannot possibly be a perfect marriage, but it's likely to work out well overall. Or it could all fall to pieces, no children survive and ultimately Catherine is not only Queen of England, but heir to Spain and it's empire. Depends on what you want.
She [Katherine] wouldn't be heir to Spain or the Spanish empire (the marriage contract made that abundantly clear), but she would be heir to the Netherlands, which would make for even more fun. Also, if Liz and Pip are sitting in separate countries 3/4 of the time, wouldn't that make it difficult for there to be kids? I mean, sure he might come see Kitty occasionally, but at the same time, it's not like he can run Spain from London (the Netherlands maybe)...so he can't stay permanently. Or does Liz just have massively explosive fertility that every time he shows up she gets knocked up? Cause I can see opponents screaming that the kids (aren't) Felipe's, especially if we end up with a prem baby...
But if both Don Carlos and her father fail to produce children, she is a potential heir, particularly if she's already married to one of the various Hapsburg Archdukes laying around. I'm not saying she'll immediately get the crown, but if Don Carlos fails to produce an heir with Elisabeth of Valois (if that match goes through) and Elizabeth Tudor either doesn't produce any children or all her children die, then Catherine is the only child of the main male line left, and that'll make things tricky. Idk, I just like the idea of a Spanish War of Succession where EVERYONE has the money to back it up. Particularly if Catherine instead chooses, say, a French Prince for her husband, maybe as an act of rebellion against her father and aunt/stepmother.