alternatehistory.com

A brief history lesson
In OTL, Mary of Hungary, the daughter of Louis I, became the first ruling Queen of Hungary, due to a lack of suitable male heirs. Her mother, Bosnian-born noblewoman, former queen consort of Louis and now widow, Elisabeth Kotromanić, had something of a regent-like position while Mary came of age. Mary was crowned in 1382, while still only eleven years old, thus several years of regency by Elizabeth were seen as necessary (all the more that this was the first female inheritance of the throne).

The early days of getting Mary on the throne were notoriously fraut with all sorts of machinations and politicking over the heir to the Hungarian Angevin throne. The Neapolitan Angevins decided to disregard Louis' official support for Mary as his heir, and via some anti-Mary factions among Hungarian noblemen, backed Charles III of Naples (a.k.a. Charles the Short) to forcefully take the throne and have Mary and her mother ousted. Things came to a head in the winter of 1385/1386. Charles came to Hungary in December 1385 and took over the throne. This was only some two months after Mary had married Sigismund of Luxembourg (due to her age, the consummation of the marriage would come later) in October 1385, some 732 years ago.

Charles the Short ruled Hungary only shortly. On the 7th of February 1386, an assassination arranged by regent Elisabeth was successfully carried out on Charles. He was at Visegrád at the time. He succumbed to his wounds, died, and was burried there. After these grissly events, Mary was allowed back on the throne and Elisabeth made plenty of arrangements to ensure Mary's Neapolitan relatives wouldn't interfere anymore. Neither of the two women knew at the time that, even with Charles the usurper out of the picture, the days of Angevin rule in Hungary were already numbered. After the assassination, they had to face the wrath of the remaining anti-Mary factions, who drove them on the run, kidnapped them and imprisoned them. Sigismund of Luxembourg smelt the opportunity to intervene in the Angevin ladies' favour (and his own favour), and mounted a rescue effort. He made sure the nobility would give him certain "co-ruler" guarantees even after Mary's rescue, though. Only Mary was rescued alive, Elisabeth had already been murdered.

While the following years weren't exactly spotless, there was at least a return to normality. Mary's readmittance to the throne wouldn't last even a decade. In 1395, she was pregnant with a child (later discovered to be a son). In May that year, while she was 23 or 24, she and Sigismund went on a hunting trip with servants to a royal hunting reserve. Mary was a skilled rider, but on the 17th of May, she overestimated said skills while on horseback during the hunt. (Mind you, a noblewoman like her had to ride in a sideways position. Extra difficult while riding fast.) She fell, seriously injured herself, her unborn son was lost, and she herself died too, as a result of the injuries. The future prospects of the Angevin dynasty in Hungary, who had ruled throughout the whole century, had vanished within mere minutes.

Mary's death was doubly tragic because of her pregnancy. Sentimental assessments aside, the death of the queen and the child also have major geopolitical implications. Why ? In OTL, Sigismund would only have a child years later, and he couldn't get that child to inherit the throne of Hungary directly. The loss of that unborn son was IMHO a more major impact than most people give it credit for. I consider it a surprisingly huge POD.

Compared to her younger sister Hedwig, who also died young, Mary is somewhat less remembered outside of central Europe. But what if she hadn't perished during that hunt and her son had been born ? I think the implications for 15th century history are positively huge, and not only for medieval Hungarian history. If the OTL events don't transpire, I think the butterflies could be huge. Gradual explanation in the following paragraphs...

Family dynamics to consider, even in the ATL:
The OTL marriage between Sigismund of Luxembourg and Mary was well-known for being difficult. The two of them didn't exactly hate each other's guts, but by all accounts, it wasn't all that warm a marriage. A marriage built on respect - somewhat begrudging respect especially on Sigismund's part - but not exactly a loving marriage where they'd go to the ends of the earth for each other. Mary and her mother were also annoyed at Sigismund trying to push for being more than just a king consort, trying to shove Mary's political role and power more into the background. Something he ultimately achieved after her death. (This has led to fringe theories about Mary's death being an assassination, but there's actually zero historical evidence for that. All the more that her murder would be the murder of Sigismund's only viable heir, and that he already wielded enough power behind the scenes, despite Mary being the de facto ruler.)

Sigismund was a difficult man all his life, both during his younger years and late years. He constantly fought with being in the shadow of his brother Václav IV, the preferred heir to Charles IV's position as King of Bohemia and Holy Roman Emperor. This affected his personality. He had problems with being a womanizer (and how !), he wasn't the best military commander (as already the Battle of Nicopolis in 1396, just over a year after Mary's death, showed), he sometimes went back on his word (most (in)famously, to Jan Hus about the whole "nah, I'll make sure they won't burn you, chum" thing). But he was also a patron of the arts and education, he was generally fair and understanding in judicial matters (even towards wronged peasants) and over the decades, he made Hungary his own and added to its growing sophistication and prosperity. In both a positive and negative way, he was also a skillful diplomat. Having ruled Hungary from the late 1390s until his death in 1437, he was part of a series of strong Hungarian monarchs of foreign ancestry who ruled for several decades, starting in the early 14th century. After his death in 1437, much of the mid 15th century in Hungary was synonymous with a new wave of constant infighting over the succession to the Hungarian throne. With some backing Sigismund's grandson, and some backing other candidates.

Mary also had a difficult and rather unhappy life from early on. Of the 24 years of her life, almost a half was spent by dodging attempts to rid her of her right to the Hungarian throne, a right approved personally by her father while he was still alive. (Tellingly, she was crowned the same year that her father died of an illness, so he certainly considered her as official as it gets and meant his guarantees seriously. She might have been saddled with a bit of a "middle daughter syndrome" - Catherine, the original dotted-over daughter died young. Hedwig/Jadwiga was younger and became idolised in her adopted Poland. Mary stayed at home and "fell into the cockpit" so to speak, because she had no choice.) I doubt that Mary having to live with the fact her mother ordered the successful assassination of Charles the Short while Mary was only fifteen was all that pleasant for her. All the more that Charles the Short was, ultimately, a relative from Naples (and a pawn in the hands of others, similarly to Mary, which makes the irony all the more bitter). Once Mary and her mother managed to secure the throne for good, they were kidnapped not long afterward by members of the pro-Neapolitan factions and imprisoned. In another gruesome episode, Elisabeth was murdered by one of the conspirators. Supposedly strangled right in front of Mary's eyes. Poor Mary was barely an adolescent at that point. She's ruled with oversight from a parent-regent, been deprived of the throne, saw a distant relative die, been reinstated, then kidnapped and imprisoned, saw her mother die an equally gruesome death... Ouch.

Sigismund and co. finally arrive to rescue her out of prison, quite possibly a broken young woman at that point. Not exactly a rescue romance out of a chivalric novel, ey ? Mary gets to actually live with Sigismund... and the first thing he does (started already while mounting a rescue of her) is try to get the noblemen to back him and minimise Mary's power as monarch. Though she is restored as the de iure Queen once they return home, from then on, it becomes increasingly clear Sigismund wields plenty of power now, and they are de facto co-rulers. Cunningly, Sigismund had given himself "emergency powers" of a sort via the nobles, arguing that the country needs a king in the interrim, while the queens are held hostage. Of course, he was willing to take that hard sacrifice. ;) And to add insult to injury, a period chronicler skeptical of both Elisabeth and Mary had described the latter as "plain, not all that pretty". Ouch. To say the universe liked to cover Mary of Anjou in cosmic cat spit would be an understatement. :p

However, some of Sigismund's actions are somewhat understandable, as he doesn't hold much of a grudge towards Mary, but he has his own ambitions with Hungary. To Mary, an Angevin heiress, it's home. To Sigismund, it's something of a place of exile (at first), a springboard where he can build his power before realising his ambitions. He's a bit obsessed with establishing himself as a monarch that could rival his brother, to whom he had to play second fiddle for many years. Mary interferes with that ambition to get back at his brother and follow in the footsteps of Charles IV (Sigismund had some daddy issues, what can I say...). So, while he might not dislike Mary as a person, his wife is a means to an end and her wielding genuine power is a thorn in his side. Period skepticism towards female rulers could also have played a bit of a role in Sigismund self-justifying his slow-burning power grab. Charles the Short might have taken the throne wholesale, but Mary's husband was now doing the same, though in a slower, politer, more cunning way.

With Mary deceased and Hungary secured as his own throne, Sigismund wasn't all that lucky when it came to offspring, especially his own heirs. After the death of Mary and their son - which ruler wouldn't welcome a son ? - the only legitimate heir of Sigismund is born later in his life. The king's second (and often more famous) marriage with Barbara of Celje/Cilli eventually brought him a child. But in a supreme historical irony, it was a daughter. Elizabeth. Putting the Luxembourgian in the same predicament that Louis, Mary's father, had to face - only female heirs. XD That deceased son could have come handy right about then ! Poor Liz was saddled with continuing her father's legacy for the rest of her life and all her efforts were ultimately for nothing. She married Albert of the house of Habsburg, who reigned only shortly before dying. A Habsburg prologue in Hungary, if you will, which might have enticed the Habsburgs to give the country another go in the 16th century.

Albert's and Elisabeth's own son, Ladislaus (aptly nicknamed "the Posthumous"), died really young, just 17. During most of his life, he was outside of Hungary and lived a rather spoilt life, making the poor kid really unpopular with most of the Hungarian nobility. Especially those who fought for years against Elisabeth's forces (many of them rather ferocious mercenaries, often veterans of the Hussite Wars). The end result of the entire cluster-screw and power play was that the son of John Hunyadi, a certain Matthias, was eventually awarded first dibs on the throne. While he was sitting in a prison cell, awaiting execution. Yes, had Ladislaus lived for longer (and still probably died anyway due to his long-term health issues), Matthias Corvinus could have been executed. Think about it. Hungary wouldn't have one of its most celebrated and most influential late-medieval rulers, possibly the most respected after Sigismund himself. There would be no OTL stab at a Hunyadi royal dynasty (Matthias' father was dead by that point).

The butterfly bomb of preventing a single (well, double) death
So, what I'm saying is, Mary dying along with her son is like someone throwing a grenade filled with butterflies into a room representing the OTL late 14th century. No exaggeration. It's a total kaboom in terms of butterflies and the resulting late-medieval ATL might lead to a world that is politically different in several aspects (right down to the existence or non-existence of certain military conflicts). All those Hungarian Angevin and Neapolitan Angevin, Luxembourgian, Habsburg, Hunyadi and even Jagellonian interests intersecting with each other in a wild flurry over the course of virtually an entire century... all of those OTL events could have been very different had Mary lived, and had her son lived. When I began studying this POD years ago, I at first thought it's not all that big, but digging deeper and looking at what came afterward, the implications for world history are off the charts. This is a rare literal case of "For want of a nail, the horse was lost...". (Or "For want of not speeding on your horse..." to be even more accurate, LOL.)

The POD
Let's presume the accident doesn't happen. Maybe the POD is something as simple as Sigismund having a minor change of heart, and deciding he needs to be a bit less cold to the queen. Maybe before they go out hunting in May 1395, he takes her aside and tells her kindly to be extra careful while riding. She wouldn't want to injure herself or the baby, and so on. Mary's secretly a bit annoyed over this, as that's the sort of thing he always does - puts her in a position where she plays second fiddle and talks down to her (though politely). However, during the hunt, Mary wants to give chase on her horse as in OTL, but then she remembers the earlier conversation. She decides to avoid risking it. She's not very fond of the Luxembourgian, but he admittedly has a point about the life of their son being at stake.

Aftermath of the POD
Mary follows the hunt on horseback that day, but largely as a spectator. She avoids major injuries in the near future, lives on, and gives birth to a healthy son. She and the husband might name him Charles. (Sigismund's father and Mary's grandfather, respectively. It runs in both houses.) Let's presume the son lives long enough to see adulthood, lives at least until his late 20s or late 30s, or even longer. In the intervening time, a lot can also happen within the royal marriage.

Major questions stemming from the above:
- How would a continuing Sigismund-Mary marriage change Hungary and Europe ?
- Would we see something of a Luxembourgian-Angevin dynasty ruling Hungary, possibly even becoming a new royal house of its own ?
- How would the pre-existing rivalry/antipathy between Mary and Sigismund be dealt with ? (Mary became popular, but wasn't much of a political actor and was vulnerable, while Sigismund was a skilled and ambitious diplomat, but only got popular in Hungary gradually, and after years of hard work.) Would they settle for a compromise, somehow overcome their differences (maybe for the sake of children), or would the Luxembourg husband's ambitions continue to drive a wedge between them as in OTL ?
- What could happen to Sigismund and Mary's son, at least in the earlier years of his rule (after either Mary or Sigismund die) ?
- Presuming that either of them live long enough, could the royal couple have more children, beyond that one son ?

P.S.
To my own surprise, Gonzaga had already started a discussion on more or less the same topic here. But I'd like to make this one a bit more detailed.
Top