Marshall Tukhachevsky overthrows Stalin in 1937

One of the big reason's Stalin purged the officer corps in 1937 was he feared Marshall Tukhachevsky, a young and strong-willed General, was plotting to overthrow him. What if Tukhachevsky did overthrow him; perhaps he and enough loyal officers got wind of the impending tribunals and made the first move. Stalin himself is purged in 1937 and Tukhachevsky set's himself up as the "People's Dictator" in Moscow.

Obviously saving the Russian officer corps means the Red army will be much more effective in WWII. But I wonder if WWII would even have started in the same with this POD. Stalin in OTL was not invited to the Munich Conference; had the USSR been represented they would have prevented Hitler from taking the Sudentland peacefully. I have to wonder if Tukhachevsky would have been invited, if for no other reason then to give the leaders of Europe a chance to meet the new ruler. In that case Hitler would have been blocked at the conference. If he invaded Czechoslovakia afterwards, I can only see the Germans getting stomped.

Those are all the thoughts that come to mind immediately. What do you guys think about this scenario?

This is based on a scenario brought up in the last AH Podcast on the Comintern.
 
Stalin was simply too powerful in 1937 to be overthrown. Kirov was his last true political rival, but even he was cowed enough to avoid overly-irritating Stalin or attempting a power play.
 

NothingNow

Banned
One of the big reason's Stalin purged the officer corps in 1937 was he feared Marshall Tukhachevsky, a young and strong-willed General, was plotting to overthrow him.

Why would Tukhachevsky want to overthrow Stalin, except possibly to save his own ass from getting purged?
Guy had it pretty good, and was pretty busy interpreting and expanding on everything JFC Fuller had put down in regards to Armored warfare.
 
Why would Tukhachevsky want to overthrow Stalin, except possibly to save his own ass from getting purged?
Guy had it pretty good, and was pretty busy interpreting and expanding on everything JFC Fuller had put down in regards to Armored warfare.

NOt being killed is generally a good motivation.;)
 

NothingNow

Banned
NOt being killed is generally a good motivation.;)

Yeah, but considering that the guy was apparently on decent enough terms with Stalin to save Shostakovich's ass on at least one occasion, and got an apology out of him in 1930, I doubt Tukhachevsky considered the possibility he might be purged all that seriously.
 
I think it would be extremely difficult for Tukhachevsky to overthrow Stalin, much less initiate such plans, because the Red Army was under intense political surveillance at the time. Every two military officers (if I recall correctly) was supervised by a political officer, so any coup attempt would be instantly be detected by the NKVD and Tukhachesky would meet his end anyways.
 
Red Army simply wasn't an institution willing to act in such manner and I wish people would realise that. At best they were willing to back one group against the other but not seize power by themselves.
 
By 1937 it was far too late. The last point when one could attempt to oust Stalin with any modicum of success was ~1932, but even then it had a high margin of failing, since the potential plotters greatly distrusted each other.
 

sharlin

Banned
But assuming this coup does go ahead who would we see 'killed resisting arrest for crimes against the Motherland'? Beria for sure along with as many NKVD as possible, Molotov perhaps?

Assuming the coup takes place and its successful and the soviet union does not collapse into civil war the Soviet military would be in a long stronger place for any future events. The purge killed off the evolving doctrine of 'Deep Battle' which was basically a Soviet version of the Blitzkrieg concept, they evolved about the same time. You'll keep the officer corps intact, save those who might have sided with Stalin, the military would be a lot more efficient and less dumb than it was during the opening phases of Barbarossa.
 

NothingNow

Banned
The purge killed off the evolving doctrine of 'Deep Battle'
Actually it didn't. It fell out of favor for about three years, but Deep Battle as theory, had become the accepted Soviet orthodoxy in the early 30's, and a standard part of the Field Manual in 1936. Every member of the officer corps knew what it was, and what it entailed. They also knew that it was a bad idea to use it, since it was associated with denounced figures, and the NKVD was always watching.

which was basically a Soviet version of the Blitzkrieg concept, they evolved about the same time.
Deep Battle was based off JFC Fuller's theories on Armored warfare (which, just about a century on, have all been validated,) and significantly predated Blitzkrieg, as it first emerged in a recognizable form in 1929.

You'll keep the officer corps intact, save those who might have sided with Stalin, the military would be a lot more efficient and less dumb than it was during the opening phases of Barbarossa.
True. They would have absolutely destroyed the Wehrmacht, as they not only had the largest mechanized force on the planet, but the logistical organization to use it effectively.

Given the fact that the Red Army would've had both Qualitative and Quantitative superiority pretty much everywhere, and in particular, that the Red Airforce would also be in much better shape, I doubt the war would last into say, the winter of 1943.
 
Tukhachevsky has to be backed to the hilt, I'm not sure who out there is strong enough to provide such backing...
 
Well the Red army does have the capability to launch a coup and probably win in Moscow, much more doubtful is a nationwide coup with any great depth. But then it won’t be the Red army any more. You can look to a period of virtual civil war, the Bolsheviks are a revolutionary party with a bit of a history of terrorism and assassination and a lot of people have a vested interest in Stalinism and all its works and however the army tries to play it this is a Bonapartist coup with no great legitimacy.

And speaking of the army is misguided the Marshal is simply a high ranking officer, one of many and he is not simply going to slide into a functioning state as undisputed boss. He will face the possibility not only of Stalinist/Leninist (after all the man is by now the acknowledged successor to Lenin for a large part of the soviet apparat) revolution but also any other major commander revolting either in favour of the legitimate government (according to taste) or on their own account. The political commissars of the era are powerful officers in their own right. There will be lots of rumours and actual plots both within the army and other security services.

Post coup this will be a state with either a shaky political base or a rule of the major generals neither of which be in much of a position to do much of anything in terms of foreign affairs. So no Soviet/Nazi pact. Probably no intervention in Spain beyond what is already there (and they were appointed by the Man so how loyal would they be to the putschists.
 
As several people have pointed out here Tugachevesky was not quite the man many people in the West suspose he was. While he was important within the military he was just one marshal among several, had little power and direct contact with some of the other marshals, or generals. More important he had little contact of power base within the civil administration apparatus, which was overseen by the NVKD as closely as the military, and entirely composed of the communist party membership. From his position in the army pulling off a sucessfull coup would take a incredible amount of organization to pull together independant elements of the army, party, and even from within the NKVD and other security organizations. Stalin had been smart enough to keep the various state organizations in separate compartments and communications between them closely watched.
 
...
True. They would have absolutely destroyed the Wehrmacht, as they not only had the largest mechanized force on the planet, but the logistical organization to use it effectively.

....

In principle I agree, tho the battle and victory would not have been so one sided. The vast expansion from1939, and mobilization of reservists before the start of war in 1941 had as much or more to do with the low quality of Red Army leadership. Over 100 new divisions had been stood up in two years and the strain of training officers and NCOs for all the commander and staff positions would have challenged and army. The Germans had five years to train their army of 1939, and two quiet winters to complete a intensive training cycle on the entire army. The reserve formations activated & integrated into the Red Army in early 1941 had little time to train, and their active service cadres were as diluted and behind in their training as the rest of the leaders. Even without the purge it would have been too much to expect nearly 150 divisions mostly entirely new formations, to be organized and completely trained, and to keep up the leadership quality in the existing units.

Still it is correct to see the defeat of the Wehrmacht come much more rapidly. In OTL the Germans suffered some 400,000 casualties from 22 June to 31 August, the period when the Red Army was least prepared and caught by suprise at the tactical and operational levels. By 1 November another 400,000 German soldiers and airmen were dead, wounded, sick, or missing. The original strength of the ground forces was slightly over three million men. In five months the Wehrmacht had lost approx 20% of its strength & that was when it had everything its way. Winter & fresh properly trained Red Army units were yet to come.

Assuming no purge and a Red Army that is 50% more effecient at inflicting losses on the attacker then we could expect to see some 600,000 German casualties by 31 August, and well over one million by late November. With losses of that magnitude would Hitlers 'stand fast' orders of December/January make any difference, or would we see large sections of the German army collapse and routed back two or three hundred kilometers.

In OTL the Wehrmacht of the spring of 1942 did not see complete replacement of its winter losses. Only Army Group South was brought close to full strength. The formations of AG North & Center remained at a average of 35% understrength with only small numbers of replacement of men and material. Again if the Red Army is 50% more effcient at killing Germans then by the late spring of 1942 we might be seeing a Wehrmacht that is 35% understrength across the board, after replacements are distributed. Even 50% understrength is possible. It is also possible no German soldier under arms would have seen the gates of Moscow, Stalingrad, or even Rostov & Lennigrad. That is the battle front would be further west in 1942.
 

katchen

Banned
And that means that the Germans would likely have collapsed in 1943 the way they did in 1944 before the Western Allies could finish mobilizing. That would put the Red Army in Berlin early in 1944, possibly late in 1943 and perhaps in Paris and Madrid and Rome too, since Franco had been coerced into sending troops against Russia, The Allies would be lucky to have a piece of Italy and a claim to a "Free France" in Algeria. The Russians would then be free to invade Japan...and the Cold War would be on, with the Russians on the English Channel and the Allies perhaps in Southern Italy, Portugal, Iceland (Free Denmark) and the Scandinavian Peninsula). Fear of Communism would very rapidly replace fear of Naziism in the West.
How Tuchachevsky would deal with Mao Zedong or eurocommunists like Tito, Togliatti and Thorez, I don/t know.
 
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