Marshall Plan for Eastern Europe

I've read a happy Changing the Times ATL, "Turkish Delight", in which an earlier Turkish intervention in WWII leads to a smaller Soviet Union, a Turkish protectorate over Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine, and Marshall Plan aid distributed for the Balkans.

Now, I'd like a thread about Turkey reclaiming some lands in the Middle East after WWII, but this thread will instead focus on the Eastern European bit. Suppose that somehow or another, the non-communist Allies liberated the Balkans, southern East Europe, from the Nazis before the Soviets did. Everything west of Moldova, and south of Ukraine and Czechoslovakia is in the western camp. I have no idea what the result of the war there would be like. Maybe there's no Yugoslavia if Tito is removed in order to have the region firmly in the western camp (but I'm not getting rid of him if it's not necessary, why bother?). But in any case, the whole area gets the Marshall Plan.

What kind of place results? I'm a bit skeptical that aid, no matter how great, will ease the ethnic troubles of the Balkans. Maybe this could be the West's first crack as promoting democracy alongside liberty and freedom.
 

Xen

Banned
Well what if without the bulk of Eastern Europe the Soviets go for a different route. They allow Eastern Europe to become Democratic/Capitalist Republics or Constitutional Monarchies, however permanent Soviet bases are to be established in Germany, Poland and Romania, this is in a similiar way as to how the US has bases in Italy, Germany and the UK. All of the nations that made up the Warsaw Pact and all of a united Germany are to declare neutrality and are forbidden to form military alliances with any nation.

The Soviet Union withdraws to its own affairs, perhaps by the 1970s it starts to adopt a Social Democratic style economy, somewhat capitalist but with a heavily socialist government. Maybe the 21st century it starts to democraticize a little. Meanwhile the US retreats back to isolationism leaving the old superpowers of Britain and France to reclaim their mantle. The Suez Canal War ends favorably for the European allies.

With both of the giants returning to their slumber, they both peak their heads out to the world occaisonally, sometimes in agreement, perhaps over Indochina, forcing France to give Indochina its independence. To get the Marshall Plan for the East, Stalin or one of his cronies (Molotov?) will have to go to Washington to address Congress, expressing the desperation of the Soviet Union and Europe and how only with American aid can lasting peace be achieved in rebuilding their shattered economies and devestated infrastructure. The aid package is smaller, but still helps.

By 2006 Eastern Europe is more than less on the same standards of living as Western Europe. The Soviet Union is far wealthier, with a higher standard of living, the United States concentrates its efforts soley on Latin America and the Pacific. Korea is a united Republic slowly catching up to the west, Japan doesnt have its post war miracle until the 1970s. Decolonialization takes longer, perhaps as a still ongoing process.

Now the two countries that intrest me here are Yugoslavia and Spain. Without the Cold War would France, Italy and Britain stand for fascist Spain? Could Spain stand in autarky for long before another Civil War? If there is another Civil War will Spain break apart much the same way as Yugoslavia? Now onto Yugoslavia, Tito can be a hardline communist and friendly to the west, or perhaps he adopts Social Capitalism at somepoint. It would be intresting to see him pull a Franco and upon his death have the King reinstated. Maybe we can have the Confederated Kingdom of Yugoslavia, all the states are "Kingdoms" in their own right, each of them have complete control of domestic issues and for the most part function as independent countries with their own Senate and Governor, however the weak Federal Government is in charge of foreign policy, national currency, and the Royal Armed Services, the King has little to no authority and all the decisions are made by the Prime Minister through the National Assembly. It could work, couldnt it?
 
Just a few questions

Xen said:
To get the Marshall Plan for the East, Stalin or one of his cronies (Molotov?) will have to go to Washington to address Congress, expressing the desperation of the Soviet Union and Europe and how only with American aid can lasting peace be achieved in rebuilding their shattered economies and devestated infrastructure. The aid package is smaller, but still helps.
I'm sorry, I simply can't imagine any possible way Stalin would actually beg for aid from the United States. While he was perfectly okay with private individuals coming to aid the socialist cause (i.e. Henry Ford's truck plants in the 1930's), asking for aid money would essentially be an admission of defeat in his eyes and the eyes of anti-communist policy wonks in Washington.

Furthermore, wasn't the entire purpose of the Marshall Plan to rebuild Western Europe as a bulwark against further Soviet expansion? I recall that the wording on the agreements, with its emphasis on giving aid to "free, open, democratic" countries, was essentially a not-too-subtle "fuck you" to Moscow.
 

Xen

Banned
Ivan Druzhkov said:
I'm sorry, I simply can't imagine any possible way Stalin would actually beg for aid from the United States. While he was perfectly okay with private individuals coming to aid the socialist cause (i.e. Henry Ford's truck plants in the 1930's), asking for aid money would essentially be an admission of defeat in his eyes and the eyes of anti-communist policy wonks in Washington.

Furthermore, wasn't the entire purpose of the Marshall Plan to rebuild Western Europe as a bulwark against further Soviet expansion? I recall that the wording on the agreements, with its emphasis on giving aid to "free, open, democratic" countries, was essentially a not-too-subtle "fuck you" to Moscow.

Even if it doesnt apply to the Soviet Union it could still happen. I know what history says, but history is written by men. It could have been any number of people who asked the US for assistance and get it. It doesnt have to be a Marshall Plan as one lump sum for the entire continent to be divided by the powers based, it could be a Marshall Plan for each individual nation. More of a loan with intrests. As I said before, its in the US best intrest to get Europe up and running again, smoothly and with competent governments that wont pray on the peoples vulnerability and perhaps become the next Nazi's. The US hopefully learned its lesson from WWI of leaving countries in ruins, with an angry desperate population.
 
First off, Slovenia (plus Istra and Trieste, and maybe little bits of Croatia as punishment for the pro-Nazi Ustase) becomes one of those ridiculously wealthy, totally neutral Alpine states. Slovenia was a card-carrying member of the Alpine Elite as late as 1917, and they absolutely hated the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. Without Tito, they would be allowed to go their own way.
It's also very likely that the Muslims in Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Albania would see Kemalist Turkey as the model for how to build their state. I could see the Turks pushing to have all of this lumped into a single nation, probably called "The Republic of Yugoslavia".
This state, in turn, would be a wonderful inspiration for Syria/Lebanon/Palestine when they get their independence. I wonder if the Turks would try to carve out the boundaries of Syria/Lebanon/Palestine so that all the Muslims were in one nation and all the Jews and Marionites were in another. Considering how the Turks handled the Armenians, I don't see this going much better than in OTL.
The remainder of slavic lands -- call it the Kingdom of Serbocroatia -- would be a very, very tempting target for the Soviets to try to turn into a puppet state.
The remaining non-slavic lands -- Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria -- never much liked the Russians. They never much liked each other, either. Working out their differences would be a task on par with the EEC's task of warming the French and Germans to each other. The result? A bipolar European Union, with two "cores" of original members.
 
Bright day
Xen, Czechoslovakia and Hungary did ask USA for help (right now dunno 'bout Poles) and this help was promised... but Big Brother stamped its foot and said no no no...

Russians were antagonistic to USA all through war... Enemy of my enemy is an enemy for latter.

PS: and Tom Veil... what is Alpin Elite? Are you meaning just Switzerland andLichtenstein? Or do you actually mean Austria too :eek:.. Austria between wars wasn't rich by any means...
 
Gladi said:
Bright day
Xen, Czechoslovakia and Hungary did ask USA for help (right now dunno 'bout Poles) and this help was promised... but Big Brother stamped its foot and said no no no...

Russians were antagonistic to USA all through war... Enemy of my enemy is an enemy for latter.

PS: and Tom Veil... what is Alpin Elite? Are you meaning just Switzerland andLichtenstein? Or do you actually mean Austria too :eek:.. Austria between wars wasn't rich by any means...
I mean Alpine in the expansive sense. Alpine France, Germany, and Italy are also relatively wealthy, and in Italy the contrast between the Alpine and central/southern regions is especially stark. You are correct, the Austrians did a good job in WWI of bankrupting themselves, but they were rather affluent up until the war, and they did quite a good job of recovering their affluence after WWII compared to their brethren in Hungary and Slovenia, wouldn't you say?
 
Tom Veil said:
I mean Alpine in the expansive sense. Alpine France, Germany, and Italy are also relatively wealthy, and in Italy the contrast between the Alpine and central/southern regions is especially stark. You are correct, the Austrians did a good job in WWI of bankrupting themselves, but they were rather affluent up until the war, and they did quite a good job of recovering their affluence after WWII compared to their brethren in Hungary and Slovenia, wouldn't you say?

True, but Austria up intill WWI was something rather different (ie Cis-leithanien). And after WWII you cannot compare things, Austria had big edge on Slovenia- it's neutrality.

Italy, true but that part used to be very different country from the Kingdom of Two Sicilies...

But AFAIK Alpine Germany is not one of the "wealthy" areas
 
Gladi said:
...And after WWII you cannot compare things, Austria had big edge on Slovenia- it's neutrality...

;) Which is exactly why I suggested that Slovenai would end up wealthier in TTL.
 

Xen

Banned
Gladi said:
Bright day
Xen, Czechoslovakia and Hungary did ask USA for help (right now dunno 'bout Poles) and this help was promised... but Big Brother stamped its foot and said no no no...

Russians were antagonistic to USA all through war... Enemy of my enemy is an enemy for latter.

PS: and Tom Veil... what is Alpin Elite? Are you meaning just Switzerland andLichtenstein? Or do you actually mean Austria too :eek:.. Austria between wars wasn't rich by any means...

The Marshall Plan was originally designed for all of Europe and the USSR, Stalin rejected it not only for his country but also for those under control of the Red Army. If we didn't have him so intrested in building his Empire, then it is possible that the plan would be extended to Eastern Europe, but probably not for the USSR, who instead demands grain and stuff from the nations occupied by the Red Army. For independence this is agreed upon, and Eastern Europe pays a set percentage as "homage" to the USSR annually.
 
I always thought the possiblity interesting of a Europe with a more easterly Iron curtain that makes Czechoslovakia play the role that Switzerland and Austria did during the Cold War of our timeline...
 
Today, yes. After WW2, they weren't yet, especially along the border to East Germany and Czechoslovakia. After many firms came from the East and Berlin, that changed.
 
Max Sinister said:
Today, yes. After WW2, they weren't yet, especially along the border to East Germany and Czechoslovakia. After many firms came from the East and Berlin, that changed.

Fair enough, but I still stick to my main point, which is that the Alps are one of the geographic centers of wealth in Europe, and this would help an ATL Slovenia become wealthy quickly, and would encourage them to retain their Germanic/Alpine cultural characteristics.
 

Xen

Banned
Tom Veil said:
Fair enough, but I still stick to my main point, which is that the Alps are one of the geographic centers of wealth in Europe, and this would help an ATL Slovenia become wealthy quickly, and would encourage them to retain their Germanic/Alpine cultural characteristics.

Really I think without the Cold War and the Soviets occupying Eastern Europe, the whole of the continent might be better off. Of course you'll still have your poorer regions, I dont see Albania becoming an economic powerhouse. Under different leadership it could be far wealthier, much more comfortable standard of living.

So if Slovenia can achieve independence following the war, I dont see any reason why it couldn't look like Austria or Switzerland, perhaps like the Swiss the Slovenians declare permanent neutrality, but unlike the Swiss choose to join the European Integration if there is still one. Ive had a recent fascination with a world without a Cold War, so I like trying to imagine what each individual nation in Europe, and the world at large will look like.
 
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