Market Garden: The Aftermath

I'm working up towards doing a timeline with a PoD being a successful Operation Market Garden.

'Successful' meaning XXX Corps reach Arnhem and find 1st Airborne in posession of the road bridge, and get across in sufficient numbers to hold the bridgehead.

I don't really want to get into the usual slanging match over who's fault it was in OTL. What I'm interested in is what would happen after this.


What would the German response be? The 15th Army should be able to cause problems, but what about the forces being prepared for Wacht am Rhein? Will Hitler order some of those units Northward.

How would 21st Army Group follow the success up?

What about the US? Would they try to force another passage across the Rhine as soon as possible?

Suggestions, comments and abuse welcomed. Well, maybe not abuse, but I've been here long enough to expect it!
 
Trouble is this: How do they get further? They hold a narrow gap in the German lines that are easy to cut off. Were do the reinforcements come from? Britts or yanks?
 
Trouble is this: How do they get further? They hold a narrow gap in the German lines that are easy to cut off. Were do the reinforcements come from? Britts or yanks?

This is why I'm asking. I really can't see any strategic thought given to what the allies would do now they've reached the Rhine.

In my mind, the whole of 21st Army Group should have concentrated on clearing the Scheldt, thus opening Antwerp. I don't think a successful Market Garden would shorten the war by more than a few weeks - at most. I'm just interested in what might have happened.
 
the problem is the germans will blow all the dykes and sluices and trap the allied armies in western holland and flood all the farmland in the countryside and create a massive humanitarian crisis.... there is a reason operation plunder was able to advance farther south; the terrain was better, had good roads towards their objectives, and wasn't inundated with water obstacles
 
the problem is the germans will blow all the dykes and sluices and trap the allied armies in western holland and flood all the farmland in the countryside and create a massive humanitarian crisis.... there is a reason operation plunder was able to advance farther south; the terrain was better, had good roads towards their objectives, and wasn't inundated with water obstacles

Yeah, I did think about getting Market Garden aimed at Wesel, as Monty originally wanted. The thing is, I can't see a way of doing that without radically altering British Airborne policy - preventing the RAF deciding on landing grounds etc.

An even worse winter sounds pretty grim for the Dutch. :(
 
I think that a successful Market Garden could have been a poisoned gift for the Allies.Monty did not have a clear idea of what to do once his army was on the other side of the Rhine, and it could have been vulnerable to a german counterattack, that could have delayed the allies some precious weeks.
 
Counter Attack

I think a German counter attack is in order. Instead of a Battle of the Buldge we have the Battle of the Britidh Sector. The Germans throw whats left at the northern end of the line. In the south American forces move steadly foreward.
 
If the British Army is over the Rhine, it goes south to cut off the Ruhr supported by the American First Army. That was the Allied Plan. It is not true that the Allies did not know what they wanted to do after they crossed the Rhine. Their objective was the Ruhr.

I'm sure the Germans will attempt to counterattack, but I don't know how successful they'd be. They won at Arnhem because of advantages in terrain and the luck of having armor to fight airborne troops. Once the British are over the Rhine, the Germans won't do as well. However, we can probably expect the Germans to send as many troops as they can, including any reserves meant to be used for the planned Ardennes Offensive.

The Americans will still advance though hampered by logistics. However, both Patton's Third Army and Dever's 6th Army Group will likely cross the Rhine by November at the latest.

At this point, the German western front likely collapses. Political issues determine the course of events. If Hitler can hold things together, the Elbe might make a good enough defense to cause the Allies to make that their line for the winter. If Germans simply start surrendering, then the Allies likely cross the Elbe don't stop until they reach Berlin. At that point, it depends how strong Berlin is as a defensive position. If weak, Eisenhower grabs it. If strong, the Allies stop in the north. However, they are likely to reach Prague and Vienna. Stalin will likely order an immediate offensive to occupy as much land as possible. The war is likely over before 1945.
 
If the British Army is over the Rhine, it goes south to cut off the Ruhr supported by the American First Army. That was the Allied Plan. It is not true that the Allies did not know what they wanted to do after they crossed the Rhine. Their objective was the Ruhr.
While this is correct, there are some problems with that statement. It's perfectly true that the overall objective was to seize the Ruhr, but that isn't very easy.

XXX Corps, 1st Allied Airborne and anybody else who turns up at Arnhem is at the wrong end of a logistical migraine. Even capturing the airfield to the North (Deelen) won't ease these problems very much. They are still at the end of one single carriageway road, with significant German forces on either side.

If the German response is to blow the dikes, this gets even worse.

So, they had a goal, but there was - as far as I can see - very little actual plan working out how to acheive this goal.

The war is likely over before 1945.
I can't say I agree with you on this one.
 
XXX Corps, 1st Allied Airborne and anybody else who turns up at Arnhem is at the wrong end of a logistical migraine.

That's actually a major understatement; the Germans cut the road (briefly) or threatened to cut it many times during the offensive. Elements of XXX Corps and the Airborne units would then have to counter-attack to re-open their single supply line. One of the bridges had already been blown and replaced by a temporary bridge (with less capacity than the original).
 
The major issue is that of logistics. How well the British are supplied will affect how well they do across the Rhine. Obviously, if the Allies had Antwerp, much of the congestion is relieved, but they don't.

However, I don't think the Allies are in much jeopardy from the Germans cutting off the bridgehead. You have several divisions of airborne troops all over that road, plus whatever follows XXX Corps. You have massive airpower. Supplies are going to get through.

I don't know the affects of blowing up the dikes as I have not studied it. But I assume it is manageable from a military perspective. The Dutch civilians may be extremely hurt, but I think the military will manage.

Dever's 6th Army Group will reach the Rhine by November 24, as they did IOTL, or earlier. With Allied troops already over the Rhine, I don't see Eisenhower telling them not to cross. If Patton's Third Army can get supplies (and this is debateable), then I don't see him wasting time - he's also going to send troops to the Rhine and find a way to cross.

Any reserves the Germans have are going to be thrown against the British. With Allied airpower in the autumn of 1944, I don't see them pushing Monty back, even if he can't encircle the Ruhr in a timely manner. The US First Army will have a real objective in supporting Monty, so I think they won't waste time and resources in the Huertgen Forest.

So if Patton and Dever get to the Rhine, I think they'll be able to cross. At that point the Germans are in a bad situation. They don't have enough reserves to contain everything. With Allied troops over the Rhine, Stalin will likely keep the pressure up, so the Germans can't detach many units from the East. If the Germans can't hold the Rhine, where can they go? The Elbe is a possible front line, but the Germans would be sacrificing much of their heavy industry, and a lot of the country. It is possible for a short term redoubt to be established with winter approaching. But will the rank and file really want to do that when it is obvious Germany has lost and much of Germany already occupied?

At that point, can German morale be maintained? There are various ways to argue this. But once several Allied armies are over the Rhine, it will be very difficult. I really expect a repeat performance for OTL in the spring of 1945 - the Germans on the western front collapse and just give up. It only matters how much fuel the Allies can get to move forward as fast as they can.

Even if Monty is more or less stymied once across the Rhine, I think the same dynamics take hold. The Americans will reach the Rhine by November and cross. While how well Monty can be is highly debatable, I think the Americans will be able to cross by November, and that there will be pressure to do so from on top. Eisenhower will have a lot of explaining to do to Marshall and FDR if he doesn't let Dever cross.
 
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