Mark Sanford 2012

What if Mark Sanford had avoided his infamous "Appalachian Trail" situation (likely never meeting Chapur) and been the Republican nominee in 2012?

It'd be an odd dynamic. He'd be a more palatable Ron Paul with gubernatorial experience and GOP leadership experience (having been head of the Republican Governor's Association).

He'd likely run left of Obama on a number of issues like Foreign Policy.

Would he end up as the establishment candidate instead of Mitt Romney in the primary?
 
Would have been an interesting dynamic. The GOP was looking for a right-wing candidate that year, and tried everything to find one in lieu of Mitt Romney. Even Herman Cain, the pizza guy, seemed like a possible nominee at one point.

But Sanford is more like Rick Perry with a greater ability to be articulate. Perry was also frontrunner for establishment candidate status during the 2011 pre-season for awhile until he began to flub lines during the debate.

If Sanford had run, he might have been the go-to candidate for the establishment after Perry flailed, thus avoiding the eventual Romney nomination.

Whether anyone would've beaten Obama that year is anyone's guess. You obviously butterfly away Romney's inartful "47%" comment that hurt him in Ohio. Obama only won Ohio in 2012 by 3 points, so perhaps give Sanford Ohio provided that Sanford runs a solid campaign. Also, Obama won Florida by less than one percent in 2012. Maybe give that to Sanford too since Sanford would motivate the GOP base more than Romney did.

Sanford still falls short though and there aren't a lot of close states left. Not really any Southern states that still could flip due to Sanford heading the ticket. Except Virginia, which is more of a Mid-Atlantic state in the populous NOVA. I suppose Sanford could have theoretically topped off Ohio and Florida with Virginia and New Hampshire for exactly 270 electoral votes. You might have to somehow butterfly away Akin's birth control comments to make that happen though in the more libertarian New Hampshire, and in the suburban NOVA region.
 
Interesting question... who might his VP be?

Rob Portman in any circumstance is a go-to. Christie was popular at that point too.

If it's a drawn-out primary, Romney as unity veep?

Ryan sort of doubles down on the Tea Party feel of the ticket.

Daniels helps to double down on the fiscal-matters-first mindset.

Rick Perry was fairly reformist on incarceration and not that bad on immigration.

Pat Toomey is somebody worth giving a glance to.
 
You might need to prevent Clinton from giving Obama’s nomination speech. He completely verbally demolished Romney in the space of 45 mins. His speech was so effective that as soon as it was over, Anderson Cooper said, “huh, I think Obama just won.”
 
Interesting question here. First South Carolina President, that's what he'd be, I believe.

And yet we had one South Carolinian as Vice President to two different Presidents. It's funny.

You might need to prevent Clinton from giving Obama’s nomination speech. He completely verbally demolished Romney in the space of 45 mins. His speech was so effective that as soon as it was over, Anderson Cooper said, “huh, I think Obama just won.”

What's this have to do with Sanford? Are you saying Clinton would roast Sanford?


Interesting question... who might his VP be?

Adding to the folks I listed before, JC Watts might be interesting. He was a Day 1 endorser of Rand Paul in 2016, although I think that had more to do with Paul being the only candidate with serious black outreach. Sanford had a fair amount of black support in South Carolina however (I think he got 22%, which is pretty high for a Republican in a southern state).
 
I don’t know if Clinton would completely torch Sandford, the way he torched Romeny, obviously his speech TTL would be different, but it was a very, very effective speech. That makes the question worth considering IMHO.
 
If he got through the primary, Obama's 2012 campaign would have been able to paint him as out of touch, using state funds for personal travel and his campaign finance violations. Clinton could still bulldoze him at the convention for his positions as Governor, and for turning away stimulus money that could have been used to put the citizens of his state to work.
 
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