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What if Nixon had replaced Hoover with Mark Felt? He would have had to resign in 1978, when he was indicted for violating the civil rights of the Weatherman. If in an unrelated POD he was not charge with that crime, he would have to leave when he reached mandatory retirement age in that same year. Jimmy Carter would not have wanted an another Hoover. After Hoover died, we know that Felt was on the short list. Felt believed that he deserved the job as he had been doing his job and the work of the ill Clyde Tolson for a year. He was angered by Nixon's choice L. Patrick Gray's management stye. Gray visited an FBI filed office every week, earning the nickname Three Day Gray. Gray let Felt manage the day to day affairs of the FBI leaving him to do most of the work the work without the job he coveted. Gray also bothered him by hiring a gourmet chief and billing the top officers of the FBI $ 25 a month to support the chief. Felt only ate two of the meals a month so it was costing him $ 12.50 in 1972 dollars per meal. It was widely assumed that selection of Gray inspired Gray to become Deep Throat. Max Holland in his book the Leak, says that Felt was leaking other information. Holland insists that Felt wanted to discredit Gray. He was hoping Nixon would blame Gray for the leaks.
So if Felt was not Deep Throat, Woodward and Bernstein do not have his help. I think are then less successful in bringing attention to Watergate. I don't think this changes much. Watergate did not play a big role in the 1972 elections. It would still have exploded as big story in 1973, even without Woodard and Bernstein. They do not become household names. Woodard is favored for FBI leaks, so that helps his career. The Senate Investigation still learns about the tapes in summer 1973. The tapes still bring Nixon down.
I just read the Secret Man by Bob Woodward. It talks about Felt's resentment of the Nixon White House for their threats to the FBI's independence. So maybe even if he is director, he still becomes Deep Throat and things proceed as they did OTL.
The one thing I know would change is that Felt's autobiography, when it was published in 1979 would have sold better. Not that much better, Felt as director would not have won much public attention.
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