Marinid Iberia?

[Malta]

Around 1340 the Marinid Dynasty of Morocco helped the Granada Emirate against an attack by the Reconquista powers of Castile and Portugal. The Battle of Rio Salado ended in disaster for the Islamic powers and was the last major attempt by a North African and Islamic power to invade or unite the Iberian Peninsula. What if the Marinids had been a little more successful?

Say during the battle, the Islamic lines hold out better and perhaps the coup-de-grace Alfonso XI of Castile is also killed during the battle. For Castile this generates the interesting succession crisis of two under age successors and also illegitimate heirs who in OTL tried to seize the throne after Alfonso's OTL death.

Perhaps, leading to the Marinids even re-taking Seville and some other acquisitions in eastern and central Spain. Perhaps the butterflies allow Sultan Abu al-Hasan to have a better time domestically and not get deposed and breath new life into Islamic Iberia. Most likely it would not save the Marinid dynasty itself in the long run but perhaps it would save Islamic Iberia or at least add a few centuries to its shelf life.

 

[LSCatilina]

@Malta

IOTL, the reason why Grenada survived as long as it did, was because neither Morroco, Aragon or Castille could really spare the expense of conquering it, essentially due to their own inner problems and crisis but as well because Nasirids played a balance game, fearing that either side taking over them, and acknowledging one or the other suzerainty to avoid this.

Now, let's say that Alfonso XI is killed : the problem wouldn't be as much the succession itself, as Peter would be in a slightly better position (his half-brothers would be less "institutionalized" than it happened later, and the faction led by his mother a bit more strong) : now I agree that a defeat and a regency would be enough to pull out Castillan's efforts as the IOTL crisis did, such saving Grenada for a while from their ambitions.

I don't think it's nearly enough for Marinids to take back southern Spain, even partially : Castillan ressources were still largely intact and maybe as importantly Nasrids were at best unreliable allies : even a quick look at Arabo-Islamic Spain is enough to see that you never had a real feeling of kinship and natural alliance between not only Arabo-Andalusians and Arabo-Maghribians, but as well among Arabo-Andalusians themselves.
I could see, tough, an enforced suzerainship over Grenada, as Marinids hold several coastal points as Algeciras and Gibraltar, formerly held by Nasrids, and probably Tarifa.

That said, Marinid prestige would be certainly strengthened by this, and I wouldn't see any reason why it would impact their takeover of North Africa, possibly adverting or limitating Abu Inan Faris' revolt in Ifriqiya; which could prevent the worst of Marinids stabbing each other to death, and while as you said, it wouldn't save them on the long run (the fate of all imperial Berber dynasties), it could likely cushion their fall for the next candidates.

But Grenada? It would be naive, IMO, to think they wouldn't use the Castillan crisis and the Merinid decline at their benefit : again, Nasrid main political tendency was to play one neighbour against the other, and Portugal was still a powerful player in the region (with a possible stronger influence on Castille ITTL), as was Aragon (which could be less influent in Castille, conversely) and its Mediterraneans strength.
How exactly it would go from there is essentially tied to the Castillan situation, but Grenada is far from being saved in long-term.