Erebus said:
Marie-Antoinette is sent into exile in the Austrian Netherlands in 1791 for her own safety as much as anything else. Louis XVI now completly lacking support and resolution bows to the will of the French Revolution and the pace of reform stabilizes.
Louis-Charles the Dauphin dies in 1795 of TB and the Assembly abolishs the Salic law to allow Princess Marie Thérèse Charlotte to succeed her father, on condition that she marries the son of Philippe Egalite; Louis-Philippe Duke of Chartres (OTL Louis-Philippe King of the French).
I don't know if that scenario is really possible. Salic Law was the French rule of succession since Philip of Poitiers (later to be Philip V of France) had it voted so that he could take the crown away from Joan of Navarra. He might have done this out of personnal ambition or because he feared that, had Joan married a foreign prince, France would have lost independance.
Anyway, this dates back from 1316 and Louis X then his son John I the Posthumous's deaths. It was what caused the Hundred Years' War as Edward III of England said that, while females couldn't inherit, their sons could inherit the crown.
Now, we're in the French Revolution and abrogating Salic Law would surely be a great reform. Louis XVI and Marie-Antoinette will probably comply as it saves their head and guarantees the life or their daughter.
Erebus said:
What happens to Napoleon and the pace of reform under Marie and Louis-Philippe if Louis XVI is exiled or forced to abdicate and join his wife in Belgium?
In his early years, Napoleon was a Corsican Nationalists. It is possible he decides to fight for Corsica, so that it becomes independant.
Another possibility would be for him to still serve in the armies of the revolutionnaries. He would probably rose through the ranks thanks to his talent (that's Napoleon, let's not forget it) and maybe become Head of the French Military if his career is as great as it was OTL.
Regarding to wether or not he would take power, I'm not sure he would. He might become Minister of War and play a huge role in the military and maybe the government but nothing more as their is already a legitimate King (namely Louis-Philippe).
Will the Counts of Provence and Artois with the other emigres initiate a civil war in France?
We're talking about the inheritance of the French Crown. They were respectively 3rd and 4th in line after Louis XVI's two sons. When the first one died, they both won one rank in the order of succession, making them 2nd and 3rd.
With Louis XVI remaining king and his only surviving son dying pretty, the two brothers would be the 1st and 2nd in line to the throne until the revolutionnaries abrogate Salic Law.
After that, it depends on wether Louis of Provence and Charles of Artois are ambitious enough to want the crown. In which case, they will probably rose up in rebellion, in hopes of vainquishing the revolution and reintroduce Salic Law.
Erebus said:
At the time in Spain where Philip V had introduced Salic Law, Charles IV had it secretly repealed. This enabled Ferdinand VI to pass the throne to Isabella II
Actually, I read it was Ferdinand VII himself that repealed Salic Law so that his daughter Isabella II could get the Spanish throne.
And It didn't go very smoothly : Infante Carlos, Ferdinand VII's brother and heir until the law was voted, rose up in rebellion and proclaimed himself as King Charles V of Spain. This caused what we know as the Carlist Wars.