Maria Manuela: Queen of Portugal?

Philip II of Spain's first wife during his tenure as Prince of Asturias was, like his father and many Spanish Kings and heirs before him, married to a Portuguese Princess. Her name was Maria Manuela, the daughter of John III of Portugal and the mother of Don Carlos. She was very melancholy, although that's not the topic I wish to discuss today. From her birth in 1527 until 1535, she was also Princess of Portugal in her own right, that is heiress until the birth of her brother.

John III only had two surviving children, Maria Manuela and his son John, the father of Sebastian who predeceased him. Let's assume Prince John is still born, but he dies in 1545 shortly after Maria's marriage to Philip. She does not die giving birth to Don Carlos. Let's give her a long and healthy life, and a little less melancholic. We have to make her seem a suitable successor, after all.

What happens next? The House of Aviz is still far from extinct in 1545; John III's brothers, the Infantes Louis and Henry are still alive, although Louis is unmarried and has only illegitimate children and Henry is a clergymen. Still, both would only be in their forties and Henry especially is far from the farce that involved his succession as an old man in the 1580s. The Duchess of Viseu is also well and alive in 1545, a daughter of Manuel, albeit unmarried, as well Edward, Duke of Guimarãe, a grandson of Manuel. The Duke of Coimbra, George of Lencastre is also kicking around, and despite being an illegitimate son, he is still a son of a King.

Would Maria Manuela be recognized as the heiress of her father, perhaps through the strong arming of the Emperor Charles? Or would the Infantes Louis and Henry press their claims as men being superior over that of their niece, supported by the Cortes? Still, even if they have no children, we would still see an Iberian Union of some sort, although played out in a different way.

An interesting side effect of a surviving Maria Manuela (heiress or not) would also be on poor Mary Tudor down the line. Assuming Edward VI still dies (and let's assume that, because it's fun), there will be no Spanish Prince to capture her attentions and kill her popularity. Might she marry Devon, or might she still look towards her relation the Emperor to provide her with martial advice? Perhaps seeking to secure the Portuguese succession for his son and daughter-in-law, he offers her the hand of the Infante Louis to neutralize a potential rival claimant? England's no Portugal, but a crown's a crown; a Portuguese match, even if supported by Spain, would probably be a little more palpable for the English. Portugal would drag England into no wars, and their friendly relations go back ages.

There would also be the fun idea of the Duchess of Viseu succeeding in some circumstance. Perhaps Portugal's own Virgin Queen, although now I'm just musing. :D
 
In the scenario that you have described, Maria Manuela, would (by feudal custom at that time) be the rightful heiress to her father. Now of course in OTL, in 1580, the rightful claimant to the Portuguese throne was Ranuccio I, Duke of Parma but his father didn’t put forward a claim on his son’s behalf nor did the Portuguese Cortes confirm Ranuccio as the rightful king. I can’t see how in TTL, King John III wouldn’t have the Cortes confirm Maria as his heiress, so I doubt Emperor Charles V would put any pressure on John. In fact, Charles would probably very carefully use his influence to build a powerbase in Portugal for Maria and Philip. Charles probably learned a few lessons about how difficult it can be for a kingdom to accept a foreign king and would coach Philip on how to make the transfer of power in Portugal as smooth as possible.

The attitudes of the Infantes Louis and Henry in TTL would be tough to predict. They both lack heirs but would still be the focus of opposition to Maria’s reign. The prospect of Don Carlos becoming king of Portugal is scary. He could wind up ruling Portugal at the same time as his father was ruling Spain. And I thought Sebastian in OTL was bad!:D As for Mary Tudor, in this TTL, your point about her marrying the Infante Louis would be a very clever move by Charles V. However, Mary would probably still die without having children, and Louis would be free to marry someone in order to continue his line.
 
In the scenario that you have described, Maria Manuela, would (by feudal custom at that time) be the rightful heiress to her father. Now of course in OTL, in 1580, the rightful claimant to the Portuguese throne was Ranuccio I, Duke of Parma but his father didn’t put forward a claim on his son’s behalf nor did the Portuguese Cortes confirm Ranuccio as the rightful king. I can’t see how in TTL, King John III wouldn’t have the Cortes confirm Maria as his heiress, so I doubt Emperor Charles V would put any pressure on John. In fact, Charles would probably very carefully use his influence to build a powerbase in Portugal for Maria and Philip. Charles probably learned a few lessons about how difficult it can be for a kingdom to accept a foreign king and would coach Philip on how to make the transfer of power in Portugal as smooth as possible.

The attitudes of the Infantes Louis and Henry in TTL would be tough to predict. They both lack heirs but would still be the focus of opposition to Maria’s reign. The prospect of Don Carlos becoming king of Portugal is scary. He could wind up ruling Portugal at the same time as his father was ruling Spain. And I thought Sebastian in OTL was bad!:D As for Mary Tudor, in this TTL, your point about her marrying the Infante Louis would be a very clever move by Charles V. However, Mary would probably still die without having children, and Louis would be free to marry someone in order to continue his line.

I figured Maria Manuela would succeed, but I wasn't sure if it would be popular or not, considering there are still men of the Aviz line that could boast their claims over her. The goal would be to have Maria and Philip succeed John, with Philip exercising Maria's royal prerogatives in her right.

I also like the idea of Louis marrying Mary Tudor; they would probably be an alright match: he's closer in age to her compared to Philip (who was 27 when he married the 37 year old Queen). Louis would be almost in his fifties. One back side effect is that he did die in 1555 IOTL, so it might be a short lived match. I still doubt they'd have any issue given Mary's cancer, but if Louis outlives her, it puts England in an interesting position: she'd be leaving behind her husband, the former King, who is not a reigning sovereign as Philip. It's also hard to know if Elizabeth might survive the trials of Mary's reign; after all, Philip personally protected her from the Queen's wrath. But considering the Wyatt rebellion came from the Queen's Spanish marriage, nothing like that might not even happen and Elizabeth and Mary's relationship might never be damaged. We don't know if Louis would do the same thing. If Louis does survive Mary, it puts England in a weird position, as the Catholic party might advocate Louis succeeding his wife and perhaps pressure Mary on her deathbed to give him the crown matrimonial. Of course, with no heirs and being quite old, it's a long shot. Not to mention, the English people wouldn't accept it. They didn't accept Edward VI's device of the succession, so they probably wouldn't except meddling on part of the Catholics when Mary is dead.
 
Just some ideas:

The main problem of Maria Manuela is that under the Portuguese inheritance laws (the Mental Law, as it was called) no woman could receive titles or lands that belonged to the Crown. It was written exactly in order to preserve the Portuguese territories from falling to foreigners who had married possible heiresses, and to ensure that once a noble family had gone extinct in their male line their lands would revert to the Crown.

The problem of the Mental Law is that oftenly it wasn't followed, as the king could ignore it and concede lands and territories to a female if he wished to do so (blame it on absolutism). Also, considering that by 1580 the Duchess of Braganza was regarded as a serious candidate for the throne then I believe the Cortes would have no problem accepting a woman as a possible heir of the throne (although being a female was probably an additional reason for the Duchess' failure).

However, Portugal of the 1540's and 1550's wasn't the same as the Portugal of 1580. There is an economical crisis, but isn't so severe as it was by the time of the death fo king Henry. You don't have the nobility destroyed by Ksar-el-Kebir, and no nobles owing favours to Philip II (who paid several ransoms of nobles who were imprisoned in Morocco). So, there would be a lot more of tension among the Portuguese, and there would be more opposition to the idea of being ruled by Castile. Under this scenario you would give Louis and Henry (or even the young Infante Edward, 5th Duke of Guimarães ) some 12 years of scheeming for the throne. The real question here is what would John III do: insist about the rights of his daughter or support his brothers and keep his kingdom independent?

I think that you would need a real war of succession after John's death in order to secure the throne to the Habsburgs, as even if Maria Manuela is elected by the Cortes there would be a lot more of opposition to her husband. The odds would be that the Habsburgs would win though(unless France gets involved and the Valois are extremely lucky).

Regarding Louis as a husband for Mary Tudor, Charles V had indeed suggested him as suitor for his cousin in the early 1530's, so he might accept the idea. However, considering that under this scenario Louis would be the main opponent of Maria Manuela's claim the Emperor might be more cautious about it (he might believe that Louis could try to use England against Spain over the Portuguese succession).
 
I concede that there would most likely be a war of succession after the death of John III but I believe that Maria would have the support of the Cortes, Spain, and her own mother to help her in such a war. As mentioned in the original post, Maria was the Princess of Portugal in OTL until the birth of her Manuel. The Cortes obviously acknowledged her rights to be heir apparent to her father while she was Princess of Portugal and I suspect that the same Cortes (composed of many of the members who acknowledged her as heir apparent in OTL) would recognize her right to the throne.

In a war of succession, she would probably have to deal with the Infantes Louis, Henry, and Edward, with Louis being considered the rightful king by the nobles opposed to Maria. France might seek an alliance with Louis in order to distract Spain from the latest round of the Italian Wars. In the end, I believe that Spain might try to settle the war with France sooner in order to focus on Portugal. Philip should be able to win the war of succession and (based on his rule of Portugal in OTL) would use his influence to persuade the Portuguese nobility that he would not threaten the independence of their kingdom.

I don’t know enough of Maria’s personality to determine if she would rule Portugal in the same way Isabella I ruled Castile, or would she allow Philip to rule the kingdom on her behalf. If Don Carlos is born in TTL with no birth defects, then I could see him being made regent of Portugal when he turns 16, giving him experience in ruling. Maria may have more children in TTL, and they may play a role in helping Philip rule his many territories.
 
I concede that there would most likely be a war of succession after the death of John III but I believe that Maria would have the support of the Cortes, Spain, and her own mother to help her in such a war. As mentioned in the original post, Maria was the Princess of Portugal in OTL until the birth of her Manuel. The Cortes obviously acknowledged her rights to be heir apparent to her father while she was Princess of Portugal and I suspect that the same Cortes (composed of many of the members who acknowledged her as heir apparent in OTL) would recognize her right to the throne.

In a war of succession, she would probably have to deal with the Infantes Louis, Henry, and Edward, with Louis being considered the rightful king by the nobles opposed to Maria. France might seek an alliance with Louis in order to distract Spain from the latest round of the Italian Wars. In the end, I believe that Spain might try to settle the war with France sooner in order to focus on Portugal. Philip should be able to win the war of succession and (based on his rule of Portugal in OTL) would use his influence to persuade the Portuguese nobility that he would not threaten the independence of their kingdom.

I don’t know enough of Maria’s personality to determine if she would rule Portugal in the same way Isabella I ruled Castile, or would she allow Philip to rule the kingdom on her behalf. If Don Carlos is born in TTL with no birth defects, then I could see him being made regent of Portugal when he turns 16, giving him experience in ruling. Maria may have more children in TTL, and they may play a role in helping Philip rule his many territories.

We don't know very much about her personality, but given the period most women fell in line to their husbands. Of course we have exceptions, such as forceful personalities like Isabella of Castile and Elizabeth I, but I suspect Philip would probably exercise her rights as jure uxoris. There isn't much known about her except that she was quite melancholic; I would assume Don Carlos is probably born as he was IOTL: given the great inbreeding present in the House of Aviz as well as the Trastamaras, it's not surprise Don Carlos was born the way he was. He had four great-grandparents instead of the maximum eight, and six great-great grandparents instead of the maximum sixteen. His parents also had enough common coancestry as if they were half siblings. His maternal grandmother and his paternal grandfather were brother and sister, his maternal grandfather and his paternal grandmother were also brother and sister, and his two great-grandmothers were sisters.

So, Philip and Maria will probably have more children in this scenario, but I wouldn't be too surprised if some of them have defects. Of course, they could have healthy children (see Philip IV and Mariana of Austria: they gave birth to Charles II, yet had a perfectly healthy daughter as well as a perfectly fine son that had merely died young). Don Carlos also became quite worse after his fall, which can certainly be avoided as it happened after the POD. But even before it, there were reports of his erratic behavior and sadistic personality. His horses often had gashes from him spurring them onward; he roasted animals alive and even once tried to force a shoemaker to eat shoes he found unsatisfactory.
 
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