Margaret Thatcher assassinated - effects nationally and internationally?

Although the initial reaction would be to hunt down the PIRA in Northern Ireland and Eire I do wonder if given the likely PIRA response that eventually(mid 90s) there would be a groundswell of " a plague on both your houses" and a bigger desire to wash our hands of Northern Ireland?

And do what with it? By that point NI is in a worse state than OTL Troubles, the Anglo-Irish relations are pretty much dead (with a side possibilty of Republican parties being in power for the majority of the time), with proposed British actions in the Republic the Celtic Tiger wouldn't be the same leading to a poorer Ireland, and the public opinion would be less than charitable to the UK.

The UK is stuck with NI either in OTL or in this TL.
 
I agree, I can only see something like happening in the Republic if the IRA actually succeeded in an attempt on the Queen.

And even then it's still more likely that the Rangers would be tasked with finding the wanted IRA figures and handing them quietly over to the UK forces.
 
And even then it's still more likely that the Rangers would be tasked with finding the wanted IRA figures and handing them quietly over to the UK forces.

I'm not convinced that an assassination of the Queen or perhaps the Queen Mother would be that controllable by the British Government. The dreaded words "Something Must Be Done" would be used.
 
Ill take the internal politics part then


The Tory Leadership
Howe would probably stand, Heseltine would definitely and Pym or Gilmour might stand as the standardbearer of the arch Wets.

Tebbit wouldn't because of his injuries - that's if he survives at all - and then wanting to care for his wife like OTL
Whitelaw was in the Lords by now, so not a realistic possibility
Lawson might stand, but he wasn't particularly popular within the party at this point (it was only in 1986-88 with the full effects of the economic recovery becoming apparent that he came to be seen as a likely future leader). Brittan may have stood, but I wouldn't say it would be likely.

In a Howe-Hezza-Pym leadership race, id say Hezza would win. Pym/Gilmour is going to poll badly on the first ballot, and in a Howe-Heseltine runoff Hezza would almost certainly win.

It would be interesting to see a Heseltine-Lawson relationship emerging in the same way of the Blair-Brown relationship, in OTL 1990 Lawson backed Heseltine, partly because it was likely he would be rewarded with his old job.

A Heseltine premiership wouldn't be massively different from Thatcher's, he was a believer in privatisation, being tough with the unions, but he would be more willing to take a tougher line with South Africa, and he would never make the disastrous choice on the poll tax, and Britain would probably have joined the ERM in 1985 with very little cabinet dissent.
Heseltine's political instincts would probably be in favour of an early election and winning a mandate for himself, but at the same time the tories had a massive majority, and people don't like unnecessary elections, so id say he'd hang on until 1987 as OTL.
The miners strike would go on as OTL, but so would the economic recovery. If Hezza took on his same views on Westland as he held OTL then he might alienate some within his cabinet, but im not sure if it would result in resignations.

Heseltine might even do slightly better in the '87 election than Thatcher did, without the TBW factor, but I doubt it would make a major difference.
The 1987 parliament would be much more stable with an anti poll tax and pro European Prime Minister, its highly likely the tories would become the pro-business, pro free market, pro European socially liberal party that Howe dreamed of, after all without Thatcher acting as a right wing prophet its unlikely so many younger right wing MPs would become so Eurosceptic.
Heseltine might lead the tories into the 1991/92 election, but if he suffers the health problems he did OTL then its likely the pressures of office could result in a heart attack at some point during the 1987 parliament, and he would have to consider retirement. If his health keeps up then id say sometime around his 60th birthday in 1993, by which point he would be the longest serving PM of the 20th century.
Its virtually impossible that John Major would be anything more than a minor cabinet minister in this TL (if that), so Heseltine's successor might be Chris Patten, Kenneth Clarke, or possible even Nicholas Scott (under Heseltine he would likely have entered the cabinet and not turned to alcoholism).
If Hezza's successor was able to keep the tories in order, they might even have a shot at winning 1997, but who knows
 
And do what with it? By that point NI is in a worse state than OTL Troubles, the Anglo-Irish relations are pretty much dead (with a side possibilty of Republican parties being in power for the majority of the time), with proposed British actions in the Republic the Celtic Tiger wouldn't be the same leading to a poorer Ireland, and the public opinion would be less than charitable to the UK.

The UK is stuck with NI either in OTL or in this TL.

Any chance at all for the UK to simply say "no, we want nothing to do with this anymore, we don't want your taxes, we don't want to govern you anymore, Northern Ireland is no longer part of the United Kingdom. Here, have some independence, whether you like it or not." It wouldn't take the death of a single prime minister for that to happen, I'm sure.
 
If Brittain became leader, would the 'allegations' against him come out sooner? More people have made credible allegations against him than Heath.
 
Any chance at all for the UK to simply say "no, we want nothing to do with this anymore, we don't want your taxes, we don't want to govern you anymore, Northern Ireland is no longer part of the United Kingdom. Here, have some independence, whether you like it or not." It wouldn't take the death of a single prime minister for that to happen, I'm sure.

While I'm sure that today's British politicians would love if Parition had never happened, unfortunately GB is stuck with NI. NI would implode without the support from the rest of the UK it just can't support itself.
 
While I'm sure that today's British politicians would love if Parition had never happened, unfortunately GB is stuck with NI. NI would implode without the support from the rest of the UK it just can't support itself.

I'm sure there are some who don't particularly care if NI can't support itself, but I see your point.
 
I'm sure there are some who don't particularly care if NI can't support itself, but I see your point.

Oh I'm sure many don't really care as long as it stays peaceful, an imploding NI is a much larger headache (depending on how you play it it's between 3-10 billion of a gap). When you look at the figures such as income tax you see how small the NI economy actually is.
 
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I'm not convinced that an assassination of the Queen or perhaps the Queen Mother would be that controllable by the British Government. The dreaded words "Something Must Be Done" would be used.

No, the assassination of the Queen would create a monster way out of control of the hands of the British Government.

In that scenario the best outcome would be the RoI government publicly and loudly handing over suspected PIRA members. It would piss off some fringe members, but if the Queen got assassinated it is literally this or war, and Ireland on its best day couldn't hope to hold off the British Army.

However I agree with sparky42 that if Thatcher had been killed Ireland would have quietly supported Britain in any way it could and Britain wouldn't have tried to deploy to the Republic.

Although I feel nothing be sorrow for the normal Catholic in Belfast if that happens.
 
No, the assassination of the Queen would create a monster way out of control of the hands of the British Government.

In that scenario the best outcome would be the RoI government publicly and loudly handing over suspected PIRA members. It would piss off some fringe members, but if the Queen got assassinated it is literally this or war, and Ireland on its best day couldn't hope to hold off the British Army.

However I agree with sparky42 that if Thatcher had been killed Ireland would have quietly supported Britain in any way it could and Britain wouldn't have tried to deploy to the Republic.

Although I feel nothing be sorrow for the normal Catholic in Belfast if that happens.

Oh Northern Ireland is going to be a hellhole that makes OTL Troubles look minor I'd bet, both from Security Forces actions and Loyalists and counteractions by the Republicans. I wonder if you could even see Loyalists attack in the South again?
 
Oh Northern Ireland is going to be a hellhole that makes OTL Troubles look minor I'd bet, both from Security Forces actions and Loyalists and counteractions by the Republicans. I wonder if you could even see Loyalists attack in the South again?

Without a doubt there would be more Loyalist attacks on the South.

The question though would be whether or not they are like the Dublin and Monaghan bombings, specifically the allegations of British Forces involvement.
 

ThePest179

Banned
So, aside from Northern Ireland, what else could be affected from Thatcher's death? What would happen in regards to domestic policy, the Cold War, and the Gulf War?
 
No, the assassination of the Queen would create a monster way out of control of the hands of the British Government.

In that scenario the best outcome would be the RoI government publicly and loudly handing over suspected PIRA members. It would piss off some fringe members, but if the Queen got assassinated it is literally this or war, and Ireland on its best day couldn't hope to hold off the British Army.

Especially a British Army that would be seriously, seriously pissed off and out for blood. The Irish Government would have to surrender any and all suspected or confirmed PIRA members to the British Government or the Republic of Ireland would cease to exist as an independent state.

It probably would not be popular in America, especially with those Irish-Americans who funded the IRA and other Republican paramilitary groups, but I doubt the US government would do anything about it beyond complain a little. Especially as the Queen being murdered would not just piss off the British but a few other nations as well as it should be remembered the Queen is still head of state for a number of countries some of whom are quite powerful.
 
I remind you that this is about Margaret Thatcher's assassination, not the Queen's. Stay on topic.

My apologies.

Maggie being murdered would certainly lead to a crackdown against the PIRA and other Republican paramilitary groups. MI5 and MI6 would certainly turn a lot more attention to them and their sources of funding. But beyond an increased crackdown - which might severe a number of the paramilitaries sources of funding for things like training and weapons - I doubt long term it would make much difference. Well beyond possibly making it more difficult for the Northern Ireland peace process - begun by John Major in the last years of his premiership and carried to conclusion by Tony Blair when the latter replaced him as prime minister - to really begin.
 
My apologies.

Maggie being murdered would certainly lead to a crackdown against the PIRA and other Republican paramilitary groups. MI5 and MI6 would certainly turn a lot more attention to them and their sources of funding. But beyond an increased crackdown - which might severe a number of the paramilitaries sources of funding for things like training and weapons - I doubt long term it would make much difference. Well beyond possibly making it more difficult for the Northern Ireland peace process - begun by John Major in the last years of his premiership and carried to conclusion by Tony Blair when the latter replaced him as prime minister - to really begin.

The Process had it's routes far before that, hell Maggie would have started the ball rolling with the Anglo-Irish Agreement. There was always plenty of backroom channels in use in the late 80's early 90's. But yeah Major, Blair and the only thing of true worth he did, Bertie were the key players.
 

Pangur

Donor
If you want a full on crack down on the PIRA and other armed Republican groups you need the population of the Republican on side. Any heavy handed actions by the UK will not give you that. The whole saga of the Troubles in the south was a very complicated affair where the Gov in the south went as far as they could politically to assist the UK with out alienating themselves from the population.
 
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