Mare Nostrum in South China Sea: Who is most capable?

Definition: Control of strategic ports and outposts/colonies along boundary coasts of South China Sea and constant naval presence and trade monopoly. Ideally on par with the Roman Empire in the Mediterranean, but not compulsory.

Assuming a favourable pre-1900 POD, which civilization is most capable of dominating the South China Sea?

Two categories for this question:

1. Pre-European (before 1500) - Vietnam (Dai Viet, Champa), China, Khmer, Brunei, Ayuthaya, etc?

2. European (after 1500) - British Empire (perhaps they fit this description the most?), Netherlands, France, Spain
 
I think China would be the most likely candidate for this. It's got a huge population advantage, and has already established dominance over any potential rivals with the tributary system. And there's already a sizable Chinese diaspora in the region which can be leveraged into setting up military and colonial outposts.

And even post-1500s, I think China could still be a force in the South China Sea. Things didn't start to get really unbalanced until the 1800s between China and the Europeans.
 
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