Marcos is Fainting...

Marcos, in his 'finest hour', said no to pleas from Ver to bomb Crame (and consequently EDSA). It was live on TV, so the chances of him accepting Ver's demands then was nigh.

But what if the conference was held secretly? OTL it was done on TV. What if before he said no, he fainted (his health was faltering by that time so this is reasonable) during the conference, with a vague gesture from Marcos before fainting signalling Ver to bomb Crame? By the time of this event not all of the air force had defected. Marcos is then rushed to a Manila hospital (briefly) before being airlifted to Ilocos.

The conference is secret, so is it possible for word of this act to not come to light amongst the protesters quickly? (Of course they still would have learned).

The marines in Metro will not pull a China 1989; no they are too exposed there. Bombing them is a different thing. Maybe have loyalist units bomb them on the grounds of higher rankings, better family life, pensions, etc. whatever benefit you could imagine.

If Ver gets his way, I could see a Phillippine Civil War occuring. Upper half of Luzon with a share in Metro Manila= Marcos, Lower half with a share of Metro Manila and Part of Mindano = Opposition, and Muslim Insurgents expanding in Western Mindanao.

Thoughts?
 
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The people of Luzon generally prefer someone like Erap or Marcos since their policies focus on them in short that is why that land should never be part of the Philippines, the same would be for the Lumads and the Muslims in Mindanao - these groups I mentioned have different needs and wants from the rest of the Philippines as well as slightly different history.
 
Yeah. And yeah, what you said might be another cause of a civil war.

I began tinkering with the idea this summer. What if Marcos cracks down on the protests? Will the PH stay intact, will it be like Romania or will it be like Syria?
 
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Oohhh... What a wonderful chaos!!!

The whole country would be in ruins, not just the capital. The United Nations would be more problematic in solving the Philippine civil war.
 
About Mindanao, besides the expansion of the Islamists, do they have a chance of splitting with the pro-Cory faction and become a new side in this civil war?
 
I think the what if shouldn't be if ver decides to bomb but if members of the military who controls the assets never changes loyalty and have a heart to Bomb, their family/friends who most likely are in Edsa/crame or at least believe in what they are fighting for. Since Ver can order and those whom he ordered can just disobey them. It has been the case in Otl wherein soldiers refuse to follow orders. However, this requires a farther PoD.

If this happens wherein loyal sticks, it totally depends who has a larger support the rebels Or Marcos.

Now, if I strictly follow the conditions/pod of the OP, there wouldn't be any civil war since no one will follow Ver or Marcos' orders due to the circumstances that already happened with a very small window from the PoD.
 
I found this part in the net and this intrigued me. What would happen if Ver hadn't been too hyper and immediately phoned Kapunan about the latter's coup attempt? What if he just ordered Enrile's arrest and the arrests of other RAM Members, thereby managing to arrest Honasan and Kapunan after doing a reconnaissance of Malacanang, thereby removing a vital element for the Cory opposition. Would that be a game changer?

(Rex Robles would be whacked.)

Is it possible that loyalty hangs on longer in favor of Marcos if this happened?

These loyalists might order their family to go back to their houses, so yeah.

The Philippines, when it comes to Alternate History, is a bit tough nut to crack. Not much resources even in my country (of course the PH), and frankly I do not want to be enslaved by a credit card so yeah
 
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This is a map of a possible civil war. Feel free to change more of it.

Brown = Marcos
Red = Cory
Blue = Mindanao Separation (from Cory) Movement
Green = Islamists

The rest are in anarchy.


Philippine Civil War.png
 
Would that be a game changer?
If they can arrest, Ram, Enrile and Fidel. These are heavily armed people. Which would require Tanks or assault to arrest them.

Is it possible that loyalty hangs on longer in favor of Marcos if this happened?
Depends how long you want. You dont want all to be loyal, you need some sort of parity to achieve Civil war. Otherwise, it will be just like coup committed by Honasan in OTL.

These loyalists might order their family to go back to their houses, so yeah.

The problem with Marcos government at that time is lack of competent or accepted succession. No one in the military at that time would accept Ver or Imelda. There is also the interpretation of how their action will be if they will be Pariah, war criminal of some sort. Then, their is the American/people/Church support for Cory/people in Crame/EDSA.

Civil War is a pipe dream nearing impossibility given the circumstance you gave. If you want something to happen the way you want, the PoD should be longer than 1986 which would make the events 1986 not happening.

For example, Cory/Ninoy needs not to accept non violence. There would be no Civil war if one is not fighting. There will also be no civil war if there is no parity in military support.
 
The NPA will take advantage of the ensuing chaos.

They reached the peak of their power during this time, recruiting thousands of members. If a civil war starts (highly unlikely, IMO), the provinces will explode. Until a military gov't takes over and bomb the reds back to stone age.

Either way, Philippine economy is screwed hundred times over.
 
The RAM had a mole in the government, and it was not long before his nerves frayed and switched sides, so he becomes an agent for Marcos. He knows of the RAM's plans, and surely their vehicles and ID formats. Enrile was at Dasmarinas Village when Feb 22 started, in Makati, a nice village, so Ver and Marcos knows their whereabouts. Uniforms are still AFP for the RAM, so no problem with that. If they went to the village with the same vehicles the RAM had, disguising as defectors, what do you think?

Yes, not all so to achieve civil war. Ramos would still be there if civil war has to occur.

What if Marcos accepts the plan of the US to retire Ver? First move is to have him rest at the time, but still in touch with Marcos? US Support was one of the main reasons Cory won. After Marcos rejected the proposal, Bosworth and Habib labeled Marcos as a lost cause, so if this is butterflied away, what do you think?

About the church: Sin initially told the people to go back to their homes only to be ordered by pro-Cory protesters to change his mind. AFAIR these were from RAM. What if this does not happen? Would it lessen the church's credibility?

So after bombing Crame and EDSA and other cities there are possible scenarios: Ceausescu, Full crackdown on the protests or civil war.

I also like it if civil war does not occur but the opposition gets bombed and arrested. I was thinking about ~400,000 deaths around the PH due to the crackdowns, and the first year after the catastrophe is hard with sanctions and such, but they still have the US, right? If so, I might see the PH becoming developed on par with Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hongkong, Taiwan, etc. today.

Marcos had many projects that were scrapped during Cory's term. The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant is widely considered here in the Philippines as to be of better quality than in South Korea, esp. Busan if it were to be developed. Electric bills are a bummer here. Also the disaster that is the K12 education might not happen, along with other things.

I consider Marcos to be not corrupt. The "Kaban ng Bayan" stolen money has yet to be discovered, while Imelda won every single corruption case against her.

P.S. I might do a TL about this.
 
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The RAM had a mole in the government, and it was not long before his nerves frayed and switched sides, so he becomes an agent for Marcos. He knows of the RAM's plans, and surely their vehicles and ID formats. Enrile was at Dasmarinas Village when Feb 22 started, in Makati, a nice village, so Ver and Marcos knows their whereabouts. Uniforms are still AFP for the RAM, so no problem with that. If they went to the village with the same vehicles the RAM had, disguising as defectors, what do you think?

Yes, not all so to achieve civil war. Ramos would still be there if civil war has to occur.


That wont constitute a Civil war. Just a Coup, either failed or successful one.

What if Marcos accepts the plan of the US to retire Ver? First move is to have him rest at the time, but still in touch with Marcos?
Not much difference

US Support was one of the main reasons Cory won. After Marcos rejected the proposal, Bosworth and Habib labeled Marcos as a lost cause, so if this is butterflied away, what do you think?

A Pod of 1981. A lot of the Phil Ams who happens to be US constituents are not in favor Marcos. Regardless of how a US politician personally feels, US interests supersedes them all. Like Reagan and Marcos are personal friends but Reagan never supported Marcos by hook or by Crook.

About the church: Sin initially told the people to go back to their homes only to be ordered by pro-Cory protesters to change his mind. AFAIR these were from RAM. What if this does not happen? Would it lessen the church's credibility?
That is a key component. However, which also doesnt result into civil war. People and military support will be in favor of Marcos instead of Cory since you cannot force the people to go back to homes without them actually supporting the decision.

So after bombing Crame and EDSA and other cities there are possible scenarios: Ceausescu, Full crackdown on the protests or civil war.

It totally depends on the situation. But with what you gave above or the OP, no civil war will occur.

I also like it if civil war does not occur but the opposition gets bombed and arrested. I was thinking about ~400,000 deaths around the PH due to the crackdowns, and the first year after the catastrophe is hard with sanctions and such, but they still have the US, right?

Not much killed. Only key people that you will not notice. Public figures will not be killed.

If so, I might see the PH becoming developed on par with Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hongkong, Taiwan, etc. today.

Marcos extension of power doesnt equate progress. in 1986, Marcos was on his last legs of his life and has been in power for 20 years. Marcos entered power when Philippines was 2x greater GDP wise vs S. Korea and ended power with S. Korea already 2x greater than the Philippines.

One of the people that need to butterflied away from power is Marcos in order for a more successful Philippines economically. That in itself will butterfly a lot of things including MNLF and NPA since he was the primary cause or growth of those organizations.
 
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Ok, you got me there. Just one last question, has any timeline about Magsaysay surviving been made? Not just a discussion.
 
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