March-1938: Forward to kaunas!

Year 1938, march.
RH:
january: German govermant reported to Poland, that germany is interested in Klaipeda in Lithuania only.
11.03-fighting at the Polish-lithuanian border: Polish border-troop was attacked(?)
16.03- Anti-lithuanian demonstrations in Poland
17.03-Polish ultimatum: Lithuania must open(?) the border, pay for incident, begin diplomatic relations, stop to opress Polish minority, defferently Polish will declare war to Poland
19.03-Lithuania agreed with ultimatum.
POD:
Lithuania didnt(USSR has promised to help). What then?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Poland becomes unguaranteeable later on -

Bet 1 - Lithuania fights but the Sovs don't actually back them up. Poland beats up on Lithuania alot but spends alot of energy on it.

Meanwhile, later in the year Germany gets territory from the Czechs.

In 1939 the Germans turn on Poland. Poland is unguaranteed. The Sovs have been fraidy cats from the beginning so they have to sit and watch while the Germans take everything.

The west gets more and more POed with Germany as their Polish war extends to Warsaw, but they don't want to commit to a war without Soviet support. And, since the Germans and Sovs don't have a pact, its oh so enticing in the west to sit back, bulk up and hope Moscow and Berlin fight.

Hitler still can't trust this western attitude will go on forever, so he gears up for a surprise attack in the west in 40 or 41.

The German generals won't see the sense in it, above all because the allies have not even declared war or started a blockade. They will come up with every excuse and unmet requirement as a reason to delay the attack west. When the attack comes depends on when Hitler completes at least a minor purge in the officer corps. If the purge takes too long and cuts too deep, France has a better chance of surviving than in OTL.

If the French do fall, the Germans jump off Barbarossa a hundred plus miles to the east.

Bet 2 - the Soviets actually do try to help Lithuania to get a territorial buffer from Poland. Hitler loves to see the Slavs kill each other. He tries to get the western attack over with in 1939. There's a big chance that ends up a miscalculation, and he can't get it done in one fighting season, and maybe, never. Meanwhile, the Polish-Soviet war might be interrupted.
 
Bet 2 - the Soviets actually do try to help Lithuania to get a territorial buffer from Poland. Hitler loves to see the Slavs kill each other. He tries to get the western attack over with in 1939. There's a big chance that ends up a miscalculation, and he can't get it done in one fighting season, and maybe, never. Meanwhile, the Polish-Soviet war might be interrupted.
red army has 19517 tanks and 1693 armored cars fore the 1st january 1938
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Tell me how they get used comrade...

alas the proletarian steel will not roll to victory under your personal command, you will have been removed as an "objective" threat to the revolution in the meantime, good Marshal.
 
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