March 1918. Germans just defend.

[deathscompanion1]

I would like to ask: Do you genuinely think that Woodrow Wilson would think it a politically good idea to make the controversial decision to enter a war, justifying it with lots of grand rhetoric about how essential it is to fight 'evil tyranny' and to 'protect democracy'… and then change his mind and start negotiating with the alleged 'evil tyranny'?

My answer is a 'no'. He wouldn't look like a diplomatic master, he'd look like an idiot—and he would know that very well. It isn't politically sensible to boldly commit to one course of action against a great deal of opposition, then change your mind and turn to the complete opposite.

Germany is not going to get out of this war unpunished once the USA has entered the war. To suggest that the Germans would offer a peace acceptable to the Americans is either (as Faeelin said) to grossly misunderstand the political realities in the German Empire (which make such conciliatory terms utterly, utterly unacceptable) or to grossly misunderstand the political realities in the United States.

Let me suggest Wilson's likely peace terms:

1. Germany totally relinquishes all its gains in the west
2. Germany totally relinquishes all its gains in the east to become independent nations (Wilsonian ideas of national self-determination)
3. Germany gives up Alsace-Lorraine to France, which is the state the majority of Alsace-Lorraine wants to be part of (self-determination strikes again!)
4. Austria-Hungary has to give so much autonomy to its national minorities that it is effectively no longer an actual polity (and again!)
5. Germany pays some reparations, though not very heavy ones, to the countries it has invaded

Let me suggest the German Empire's likely answer:

1. "No."

There is a very good reason why the default idea for how to make the Central Powers win the First World War is to avoid unrestricted submarine warfare.

Wilson had very unrealistic ideas about his level of statesmanship. Again there only has to be a decent enough starting offer for an armistice. Once negotiations start the French and British will cock it up with their demands and the Americans will increasingly turn against the war while Wilson tries and gets his 14 points.

 

[lukedalton]

Wilson had very unrealistic ideas about his level of statesmanship. Again there only has to be a decent enough starting offer for an armistice. Once negotiations start the French and British will cock it up with their demands and the Americans will increasingly turn against the war while Wilson tries and gets his 14 points.

The problem is that the blockade will remain, no way in hell that Wilson will be able to force the British to lift up, and with that in place German remain in trouble; and as i said earlier the italian front is ready to become an open wound for the CP, regardless of the american.

What the German will offer? A return on the pre-war situation on the west and we keep all our gain in east, oh and give back some of our colonies so to be kind.
BTW Austria keep Serbia and the Ottoman will lose just something.

Sorry no goverment will survive 5 second accepting this term.

Catspoke proposal are the most reasonable and the minimun that the Entente can possibly accept for stopping the fight and negotiate.

 

[mrmandias]

Why would Wilson accept anything that made no move at all towards self-determination in the East, which was a big part of his idealistic crusade? When I think of pragmatist thinkers who were willing to get half a loaf now to save blood and treasure, Wilson isn't exactly who comes to mind.

Nor do I see the German high command being able or willing to offer what's needed to get Wilson onside, let alone the Brits and the French. Remember, 1918 was desperate, but they thought they had a real chance of landing a knock-out blow. It will be impossible--impossible!--for them to voluntarily relinquish their gains in the East. Also the German command has to be very worried about civilian morale. If word gets out that they are negotiating a peace in which they are giving up a lot, they will cause a lot of unrest, a combination of people feeling like their sacrifices are being betrayed and also people fed up with the war and feeling like they've been lied to about how well the Reich was doing.

 

[Perfidious Albion]

Wilson had very unrealistic ideas about his level of statesmanship. Again there only has to be a decent enough starting offer for an armistice. Once negotiations start the French and British will cock it up with their demands and the Americans will increasingly turn against the war while Wilson tries and gets his 14 points.

My opinion of Wilson's strategy for the post-war world is lower than the depths of Hell, but I don't think he'd be stupid enough to negotiate with the Germans; he was, after all, a politician, and he would therefore know that negotiating with the Germans would make him look like an idiot.

Again: It isn't politically sensible to boldly commit to one course of action against a great deal of opposition, then change your mind and turn to the complete opposite.

The problem is that the blockade will remain, no way in hell that Wilson will be able to force the British to lift up, and with that in place German remain in trouble;

Agreed. Indeed, the Americans could have provided no direct military support to Britain and France and Germany would still almost certainly lose, because of this. The Royal Navy's strategy was to strangle the German economy until it collapsed, and by 1918 that was very, very nearly complete. If the USA gives Britain and France the necessary funding to continue the war, Germany can't win even if it makes bold advances that push through much of France, because very shortly it won't be able to fund its advances and feed its soldiers.

and as i said earlier the italian front is ready to become an open wound for the CP, regardless of the american.

I don't know anywhere near enough about it to comment. Would you mind providing more detail, please?

What the German will offer? A return on the pre-war situation on the west and we keep all our gain in east, oh and give back some of our colonies so to be kind.
BTW Austria keep Serbia and the Ottoman will lose just something.

Sorry no goverment will survive 5 second accepting this term.

Agreed in entirety.

Catspoke proposal are the most reasonable and the minimun that the Entente can possibly accept for stopping the fight and negotiate.

I disagree with several points of Catspoke's proposed terms:

1. Eastern Europe. Britain will not accept the Central Powers retaining their gains in the east for the sake of the balance of power. France will not accept the Central Powers retaining their gains in the east because it entered the war to protect Serbia from Austro-Hungarian aggression and it would be a massive humiliation to concede that at this point. The United States will not accept the Central Powers retaining their gains in the east for the sake of 'self-determination' of the various Eastern European nations.
2. Submarines. Germany will not stop submarine warfare unless Britain stops the blockade that's strangling Germany, and Britain will not stop the blockade even if the USA insists (the USA is not actually capable of forcing Britain to stop the blockade).
3. Alsace-Lorraine. I agree that France will demand concessions in Alsace-Lorraine and will fight until it gets them. I disagree that the German Empire will be willing to give such concessions in any scenario except for an OTL-style situation where the Entente powers are simply dictating terms to Germany.
4. The evacuation of Belgium and France. However sensible it is or isn't from a military perspective, from a political perspective it will look like giving up the gains that German soldiers fought and died en masse to achieve. I don't think the Germans would do it, except, again, if the Entente powers are simply dictating terms.

 

[jlckansas]

Wilson is the key to this. Most people forget that 1918 is a mid term election year and Wilson was a politician. Can you imagine the American people let alone the Republican party would do if they found out that the Central powers offered an cease fire in early 1918 and they have the casualties like you had OTL by late l918 early 1919. At the minimum I can see if it comes out before the election a Republican landslide in the house and Senate. Think if Wilson is able to tell the American public instead that they are offering peace with us now that the US is in the War, and we will talk with them about it.

If the Germans are able to stroke his Ego the other Entente members dont have a chance.

 

[mrmandias]

Wilson is the key to this. Most people forget that 1918 is a mid term election year and Wilson was a politician. Can you imagine the American people let alone the Republican party would do if they found out that the Central powers offered an cease fire in early 1918 and they have the casualties like you had OTL by late l918 early 1919. At the minimum I can see if it comes out before the election a Republican landslide in the house and Senate. Think if Wilson is able to tell the American public instead that they are offering peace with us now that the US is in the War, and we will talk with them about it.

If the Germans are able to stroke his Ego the other Entente members dont have a chance.

This is imagining something like a contemporary electorate and contemporary mass media, but in 1918.

That happens not to be the case. The US had no significant degree of war weariness in early 1918 (or in late 1918 for that matter), no significant peace caucus, and no conception of limited war aims. The mass media were highly patriotic, propagandistically so, and preached a highly colored version of the evils of the Hun, along with the notion that the US was fighting a crusade for liberal democracy. When you're fighting a crusade against the locus of all evil, and you're pretty sure you're going to crush 'em like a bug in a year or so, you don't negotiate a compromise peace to avoid a few casualties (especially if you haven't actually done much fighting yet and you're convinced that your superior fighting men won't get bogged down like those silly continentals have).

 

[lukedalton]

I don't know anywhere near enough about it to comment. Would you mind providing more detail, please?

Basically the Italian army now lead by Diaz has been reorganized, retrained, the harsh uncompromising discipline of Cadorna discarded and substitued by huge effort at propaganda and greatly effort to better the living situation of the soldiers, the general supply situation is way better and the training plus the new material are made the italian army a total different beast from the one of Caporetto.
On the other side there is the A-H army who is now at the lowest in term of supply and morale, with their nation now a totally owned subsidiary of the German Empire, when the final assault started the Hasburg army basically melted, knockning out the A-H empire from the war...and one of the provision for the armistice was the right of the Entente to use the territory and the facilities of A-H for launching an assault towards Bavaria opening a second front.

 

[Mikestone8]

Basically the Italian army now lead by Diaz has been reorganized, retrained, the harsh uncompromising discipline of Cadorna discarded and substitued by huge effort at propaganda and greatly effort to better the living situation of the soldiers, the general supply situation is way better and the training plus the new material are made the italian army a total different beast from the one of Caporetto.
On the other side there is the A-H army who is now at the lowest in term of supply and morale, with their nation now a totally owned subsidiary of the German Empire, when the final assault started the Hasburg army basically melted, knockning out the A-H empire from the war...and one of the provision for the armistice was the right of the Entente to use the territory and the facilities of A-H for launching an assault towards Bavaria opening a second front.

Actually the KuK army didn't so much melt away before the Italian attack, as before the collapse of the Macedonian Front, which opened up their rear. When that happened, the Hungarians started demanding the return of Hungarian regiments to guard their southern border - and if that were complied with the Italian Front couldn't be held. At that point things fell apart rather quickly.

 

[Cymraeg]

Even if the Germans do nothing on the Western Front they still have to face the fact that their Allies are all collapsing behind them. Turkey pulls out of the war, Bulgaria collapses, the Dual Monarchy finally throws its cards in as Hungary splits off at the same time as the Czechs and Slovaks... they have too many fires to fight. And if they pull forces out to try and save the situation to the South or South-East, they're still going to get hit in the face by the equivalent of the 100 Days offensive, which will break the Western Front.

 

[Mikestone8]

The Germans' crucial mistake wasn't so much the offensives as the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which horrified most people on the Allied side, and stiffened their resistance much as a preview of the Treaty of Versailles would have stiffened that of the Germans.

If they'd given Russia a genuinely moderate peace (which they could easily have found some excuse to denounce in the event of victory) and followed it by a firm promised to restore Belgium (on which they would never have had to deliver) they'd have been a lot better off. The Allies would of course turn down the offer, as they had a whole shopping list of other demands, which would have left many British soldiers asking why they were being required to go on fighting. And it wouldn't have taken much to turn the retreat of March 1918 into a rout.

BTW that isn't just my opinion. Haig was deeply afraid of just such an offer, since his troops (in his opinion) understood that we were at war for the liberation of Belgium and recognised the justice of that cause. [1] However, even he could see that they didn't give a toss "whether Strasbourg should be French or Trieste Italian" let alone about more remote places.

The Germans would of course have been even better to have made such an offer a year earlier, but whatever their military prowess, as diplomats they were a dead loss.



[1] See his diary entry for 2 Jan 1918

 

[Gannt the chartist]

Below are the fun bits of the 14 points. Published Jan 18 so its beyond reason that that Wilson will coo and say well thats ok Kaiser, did'nt mean it really.

'The evacuation of all Russian territory and such a settlement of all questions affecting Russia as will secure the best and freest cooperation of the other nations of the world in obtaining for her an unhampered and unembarrassed opportunity for the independent determination of her own political development and national policy and assure her of a sincere welcome into the society of free nations under institutions of her own choosing; and, more than a welcome, assistance also of every kind that she may need and may herself desire. The treatment accorded Russia by her sister nations in the months to come will be the acid test of their good will, of their comprehension of her needs as distinguished from their own interests, and of their intelligent and unselfish sympathy.

Belgium, the whole world will agree, must be evacuated and restored, without any attempt to limit the sovereignty which she enjoys in common with all other free nations. No other single act will serve as this will serve to restore confidence among the nations in the laws which they have themselves set and determined for the government of their relations with one another. Without this healing act the whole structure and validity of international law is forever impaired.

All French territory should be freed and the invaded portions restored, and the wrong done to France by Prussia in 1871 in the matter of Alsace-Lorraine, which has unsettled the peace of the world for nearly fifty years, should be righted, in order that peace may once more be made secure in the interest of all.

A readjustment of the frontiers of Italy should be effected along clearly recognizable lines of nationality.

The people of Austria-Hungary, whose place among the nations we wish to see safeguarded and assured, should be accorded the freest opportunity to autonomous development.

Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro should be evacuated; occupied territories restored; Serbia accorded free and secure access to the sea; and the relations of the several Balkan states to one another determined by friendly counsel along historically established lines of allegiance and nationality; and international guarantees of the political and economic independence and territorial integrity of the several Balkan states should be entered into.

The Turkish portion of the present Ottoman Empire should be assured a secure sovereignty, but the other nationalities which are now under Turkish rule should be assured an undoubted security of life and an absolutely unmolested opportunity of autonomous development, and the Dardanelles should be permanently opened as a free passage to the ships and commerce of all nations under international guarantees.

An independent Polish state should be erected which should include the territories inhabited by indisputably Polish populations, which should be assured a free and secure access to the sea, and whose political and economic independence and territorial integrity should be guaranteed by international covenant.'

So accept all of that and the US may talk to the their allies.

Sit tight and three things are certain.

The Ottomans will collapse, nothing in the POD changes anything.

The Entente are + 100k net troops for spring summer fighting. (its +700k german + 800 k allied ( about 50 50 french and british). The whole of the summer offensive left the Germans with a net loss of 16 divisions in the reserve. Thats going to get chewed up even in static fighting through the spring and takes no account of whatever the Entente does in March - July.

The Entente are able to break into any german position anyway.

 

[Glenn239]

Actually the KuK army didn't so much melt away before the Italian attack, as before the collapse of the Macedonian Front, which opened up their rear. When that happened, the Hungarians started demanding the return of Hungarian regiments to guard their southern border - and if that were complied with the Italian Front couldn't be held. At that point things fell apart rather quickly.

The Italians waited all through 1918 then finally attacked after the Austro-Hungarian empire had dissolved politically. Even then, it was British and French units that made the breakthrough, with the Austrian army finally collasping when counterattack units refused to move.

Whole thing gives the impression that one Michael scale blow, and the Italians might have collapsed completely.

 

[Glenn239]

Even if the Germans do nothing on the Western Front they still have to face the fact that their Allies are all collapsing behind them.

But if the German army does nothing in the west, then the German army has ample reserves to prevent the allies from collapsing. Heavy offensives could see the Greeks and Italians suffering devasting blows.

 

[lukedalton]

The Italians waited all through 1918 then finally attacked after the Austro-Hungarian empire had dissolved politically. Even then, it was British and French units that made the breakthrough, with the Austrian army finally collasping when counterattack units refused to move.

Whole thing gives the impression that one Michael scale blow, and the Italians might have collapsed completely.

Sorry no, not by 1918, the entire nation was behind the war and the army was at his best and fully supply with modern equipment and good training and frankly trying this kind of offensive in Italy mean left unguarded a the front in France, same for doing nothing and wait, moving the troops needed to prop up their allies in that manner need time and will leave the line against the Anglo/French weak.
Edit: btw there were in total 6 non italian division who partecipated in the final offensive over a total of 57, not really a vital contribution

 

[Mike D]

Without the Kaiserschlacht would Germany as a nation survive through to the 1919 before collapsing into starving anarchy?

From what I've read Germany had huge problems on the home front - lack of food, a population sick of the huge and never ending casualty lists and a lack of coal for heating. The army going on the defensive isn't going to fix any of that.

At the front - if the German offensives don't happen would the German armies have the strength or the willpower to stop the Amiens offensive considering the weight of artillery, CAS and armour that was thrown at them?

Everything I've read about 1918 seems to suggest that Germany was a defeat waiting to happen - a major reason for the failure of the Spring Offensive was that German troops would stop at the first British supply depot they found and gorge themselves on food they'd not seen the like of in quantity or quality of in years while the civilians just wanted the war to end before a complete collapse. Personally I don't think going on the defensive as late as 1918 is going to be enough to save them or even much extend the war.

 

[Glenn239]

Sorry no, not by 1918, the entire nation was behind the war and the army was at his best and fully supply with modern equipment and good training and frankly trying this kind of offensive in Italy mean left unguarded a the front in France, same for doing nothing and wait, moving the troops needed to prop up their allies in that manner need time and will leave the line against the Anglo/French weak.
Edit: btw there were in total 6 non italian division who partecipated in the final offensive over a total of 57, not really a vital contribution

Not sure on any of that. While Italy won both battles in 1918, it had done so only against an increasingly ramshackle Austrian army, not the German. The Italian army had refrained from offensives until after the Austro-Hungarian state had collapsed, suggesting a lack of confidence in Italian army leadership in their chances earlier. I see an interesting statistic from the failed Austrian Piave offensive - that 50,000 Italians had surrendered despite the Piave having burst its banks and wrecked the attack. Granted, other Italian units counterattacked effectively, but that total of POW's is very high for an army that had allegedly fully recovered, (in comparison, the "Black Day" of the German army on 8 August 1918 was also 50,000 POW's).

Gut hunch is that Operation Michael, if taken on the Piave in 1918, might have caved in the whole front and taken Venice.

 

[lukedalton]

Not sure on any of that. While Italy won both battles in 1918, it had done so only against an increasingly ramshackle Austrian army, not the German. The Italian army had refrained from offensives until after the Austro-Hungarian state had collapsed, suggesting a lack of confidence in Italian army leadership in their chances earlier. I see an interesting statistic from the failed Austrian Piave offensive - that 50,000 Italians had surrendered despite the Piave having burst its banks and wrecked the attack. Granted, other Italian units counterattacked effectively, but that total of POW's is very high for an army that had allegedly fully recovered, (in comparison, the "Black Day" of the German army on 8 August 1918 was also 50,000 POW's).

If you mean the first battle of PIave, it was in late november 1917, just after Caporetto, with the army still in disarray and Cadorna still as commander or just dismissed...and Italy loss between casualities, prisoner and dead 43.000, if you mean the Battaglia del solstizio aka the last offensive of the A-H army, well it was the austrian version of the Michael offensive, an attempt to knock out Italy launching against her everything and the kitchen sink and failed with 90.000 (the 50.000 figure include the MIA and many of them come back to the italian line...or their corpse were discovered in later years) loss for Italy and 150.000 for A-H btw, the motivation of the wait was more regarding the full replenishment and retraining of the army than any question regarding the solidity of the Hasburg Empire

Gut hunch is that Operation Michael, if taken on the Piave in 1918, might have caved in the whole front and taken Venice.

Maybe, but so what? Italy will not cave and the loss will be still high for the German, plus well now the French front is basically ready for the rest of the Entente to go and grab.

 

[katchen]

I'm not sure the Allies will listen at this point, but tickling Wilson's ego might help. The Germans would also want to open with terms just plausible enough to encourage negotiations but not dissuade their own public, so perhaps as an opening offer:

-Recognize German annexation of Luxembourg
-Recognize German authority in Alsace-Lorraine but permit plebiscite under certain conditions
-German East Africa remains German, all other African colonies to Britain and all Asian colonies to France
-Germany to annex Belgian territory east of the Meuse
-Immediate cessation of hostilities during negotiations
-Status Quo Antebellum for Ottomans minus Palestinean Mandate for UK
-Belgian gains to be recognized
-Greece and Romania to be returned to their prior governments
-Serbia to be annexed to Austria-Hungary
-Trento to be allowed a plebiscite to determine its fate
-Trieste to be allowed a plebiscite to determine its fate
-Germany to pay reparations to Belgium for violating her neutrality

All of the above except that Belgium gets Lorraine instead of German reparations and Mulhausen is returned to Switzerland. In this way, Germany is protected in the West from Franceby a belt of neutral nations.

 

[lukedalton]

All of the above except that Belgium gets Lorraine instead of German reparations and Mulhausen is returned to Switzerland. In this way, Germany is protected in the West from Franceby a belt of neutral nations.

As said above the German can propose this term...the entente leaders will just laugh in the face of any ambassador...maybe if the German army occupy Paris, otherwise no change

 

[Richmond_Pope]

Just a random thought. In this scenario, how long do the Germans have to hold out before Wilson goes down with a stroke? Or at least go down in public with a stroke?