I would like to apologise, then, for misunderstanding your position and attacking what I thought it was instead of what it actually was.
March 1918. Germans just defend.
- Thread starter Catspoke
- Start date
I would like to apologise, then, for misunderstanding your position and attacking what I thought it was instead of what it actually was.
The last possible moment for a global peace deal would be if the Kerensky government offered peace in reasonable terms, and the Germans accepted. This would put a lot more pressure on the allies, and could lead to reason prevailing. It would mean the end of the road for the German monarchy sooner or later, and Germany would have to renounce some imperial and naval pretensions, but at the time the French were not yet sure of recovering their army strength, the US war effort was not so advanced, etc.
Most comments in here and for that sake by historians out there is based on enlighten hindsight and pretty much ignore political and societal realities.
First what would have to be sacrificed by the Central powers to give peace a chance.
1) Belgium.
2) At the very least a plebiscite for the future of A-L. (It would be hard for the non-French Entended powers to go against the wishes of an actual vote in A-L, which by the way would likely go Alsace to France and Lorraine for Germany)
Those two are THE most important and non negotiable point of an German offer.
What WOULDN*T be deal breakers in a diplomatic gambit.
A) Luxemburg, it is a small artificial state with no really set national place in the world of WW1.
B) The fate of the eastern provinces after the Brest Livtosk treaty.
Other REALLY hard facts about the Entende at this time.
Both Britain and France was TAPPED for manpower at this point and socialist and peace parties and groupings where becoming more and more loud.
Both France and Britain was between a rock and a hard place at this point, the only real manpower reserves they had was their from their colonial Empires which meant oodles of problem down the line (And they KNEW it)
I will repeat Britain and France had NO manpower reserves left, there's good reason why the Britain and France suffered more than anybody else from the 'Lost Generation'.
At this point in time With the French Army just having been recuperating from the mutinies the year before, the idea that the French army would happily and gladly jump into an offensive against German strong holds AFTER they have pretty much been given/offered the whole of their country back and then some (plebiscite in A-L, also the only way the German public would swallow that camel). is ludicrous at best and willful ignorant at worst.
On the Italian front with no Michael the 4 German divisions there wouldn't go anywhere else after the hugely successful offensive 4 months before.
As for the US, AFTER a serious offer to stop the ULW at sea (something the RN by the way provoked intentionally, the Empire and RN was just not QUITE prepared for the consequences) and returning Belgium to the Belgians and give the French a chance of getting A-L peacefully after withdrawing from French territory would make it VERY difficult for Wilson to drum up all that much support for the war, especially when US GI's begin to be buried for no apparent reason in their hundreds and even tens of thousands.
Note that trying to get the US population riled up for some nations that don't exist (Poland) or are so small you can hardly see them on a map (Luxemburg) or are REALLY hard to pronounced when slightly drunk or for that matter spell ( Czechoslovakia ) you have another thing coming, and that is in the first halfway elections.
Most people in here has talked (A lot) about the problems the CP have at this time but mostly overlooking the Entended ditto, and do note that the problems is not hypothetical, it showed itself during the Russia civil war where the two principal Entended powers could do fuck all of any real importance due to their political problems and the EXTREME war weariness that France and Britain suffered under, it was the same war weariness by the way that pretty much insured the evt Communist victory since none of the former allied powers could be depended on supporting the liberal-Socialist government that actually had gotten power by more fair means. than foul.
First what would have to be sacrificed by the Central powers to give peace a chance.
1) Belgium.
2) At the very least a plebiscite for the future of A-L. (It would be hard for the non-French Entended powers to go against the wishes of an actual vote in A-L, which by the way would likely go Alsace to France and Lorraine for Germany)
Those two are THE most important and non negotiable point of an German offer.
What WOULDN*T be deal breakers in a diplomatic gambit.
A) Luxemburg, it is a small artificial state with no really set national place in the world of WW1.
B) The fate of the eastern provinces after the Brest Livtosk treaty.
Other REALLY hard facts about the Entende at this time.
Both Britain and France was TAPPED for manpower at this point and socialist and peace parties and groupings where becoming more and more loud.
Both France and Britain was between a rock and a hard place at this point, the only real manpower reserves they had was their from their colonial Empires which meant oodles of problem down the line (And they KNEW it)
I will repeat Britain and France had NO manpower reserves left, there's good reason why the Britain and France suffered more than anybody else from the 'Lost Generation'.
At this point in time With the French Army just having been recuperating from the mutinies the year before, the idea that the French army would happily and gladly jump into an offensive against German strong holds AFTER they have pretty much been given/offered the whole of their country back and then some (plebiscite in A-L, also the only way the German public would swallow that camel). is ludicrous at best and willful ignorant at worst.
On the Italian front with no Michael the 4 German divisions there wouldn't go anywhere else after the hugely successful offensive 4 months before.
As for the US, AFTER a serious offer to stop the ULW at sea (something the RN by the way provoked intentionally, the Empire and RN was just not QUITE prepared for the consequences) and returning Belgium to the Belgians and give the French a chance of getting A-L peacefully after withdrawing from French territory would make it VERY difficult for Wilson to drum up all that much support for the war, especially when US GI's begin to be buried for no apparent reason in their hundreds and even tens of thousands.
Note that trying to get the US population riled up for some nations that don't exist (Poland) or are so small you can hardly see them on a map (Luxemburg) or are REALLY hard to pronounced when slightly drunk or for that matter spell ( Czechoslovakia ) you have another thing coming, and that is in the first halfway elections.
Most people in here has talked (A lot) about the problems the CP have at this time but mostly overlooking the Entended ditto, and do note that the problems is not hypothetical, it showed itself during the Russia civil war where the two principal Entended powers could do fuck all of any real importance due to their political problems and the EXTREME war weariness that France and Britain suffered under, it was the same war weariness by the way that pretty much insured the evt Communist victory since none of the former allied powers could be depended on supporting the liberal-Socialist government that actually had gotten power by more fair means. than foul.
The big problem for Germany accepting the 14 points is that even if the US accepted it and it was successful in pressuring GB and France in accepting it (fat chance!) Germany is about done as a Great Power as a result. It will be a long, long time before anyone will be willing to ally with it. The 14 points means the breakup of AH and the Ottoman Empire. By accepting the Germans have just stabbed their allies in the back to the extent they no longer exist. Who is going to ally with them in the future after that? Russia will sooner or later get back on its feet and Germany will be all on its own when the Russians kick them out because no one will trust the Germans.
Let me put it this way. There's a party going on at the 5th floor of the fraternity, but the service elevator can only deliver one case of beer per hour to the 5th floor. Despite the fact that all the hot girls are at the 5th floor, the bros know they can't keep more dudes hydrated on that floor, since those there are allready complaining of serious thirst, so they send the more recently arrived dudes to an alternative party on the 4th floor, because that floor has an alternative service elevator that can keep them holding cold ones there, even if the lack of hot girls makes that a bit pointless.
So it's not they didn't have enough beer, it was a distribution problem.
Sorry for thetone, but overloading a single supply route is pretty much logistics 1.0.1.
Could I trouble you for a source in support of this analogy?
Do they?
The people of Austria-Hungary, whose place among the nations we wish to see safeguarded and assured, should be accorded the freest opportunity to autonomous development.
Means precisely what once the US army has gone home?
Whatever reply the Central Powers give to the 14 Points, it would have to be agreed amongst the four members. Since the 14 Points were functionally meaningless in a Europe where Germany's army dominated, I would see little issue with a blanket acceptance.
As far as the German allies: The Austrians were begging the Germans to make peace at this point so they will go along with anything reasonable.
A beginning of 1918 amistice means the Austrians have to withdraw from Italian territory and agree that Trieste is up for negotiations.
An August 1918 armistice, means the Austrians are withdrawing from Italian territory and Trieste as well and most of Serbia too and are giving up thier submarines and much of thier surface navy too before negotiations even start.
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The Germans need to keep the Danube/Black Sea as a trade waterway and the Dardanelles straits closed during any armistice.
Bulgaria should consider themthelves lucky if they can keep their part of Rommania after the war, any chunks of Serbia / Greece are going to have to be given back.
Turkey is going to lose what they already have lost (Baghdad, Jerusalem) compensated for whatever parts of Russia they can hold on to.
A beginning of 1918 amistice means the Austrians have to withdraw from Italian territory and agree that Trieste is up for negotiations.
An August 1918 armistice, means the Austrians are withdrawing from Italian territory and Trieste as well and most of Serbia too and are giving up thier submarines and much of thier surface navy too before negotiations even start.
------------------------------------
The Germans need to keep the Danube/Black Sea as a trade waterway and the Dardanelles straits closed during any armistice.
Bulgaria should consider themthelves lucky if they can keep their part of Rommania after the war, any chunks of Serbia / Greece are going to have to be given back.
Turkey is going to lose what they already have lost (Baghdad, Jerusalem) compensated for whatever parts of Russia they can hold on to.
Deleted member 1487
Worst base scenario if by some ASB events the peace is concluded on equal terms under the 14 points, not the OTL farce, then A-H breaks up and Germany gets Austria and the German speaking parts of Czecho-Slovakia. Germany keeps Danzig and Memel, while perhaps adds Luxembourg, while keeping part of A-L (assuming plebiscite). She loses Posen and some Polish majority areas of Prussia, while jettisons the rest of A-H and probably loses its treaty with Romania. Arguably Germany can still force the breakup of Russia to let minorities there be free in their own country: the Baltic states, Finland, Belarus, Ukraine, and Poland, which will benefit Germany militarily, as Russia won't be as powerful or as close to Germany, while Germany now as a slew of countries in the East it can economically dominate without losing it pre-war trade in the East.
Especially if Germany avoids paying much in the war of reparations (repairing Belgium though, she is better off financially, though the break up of A-H would void the debts she owns Germany. France would be wrecked as a great power too, as would Russia. The consolidation of ethnic Germans in Europe would leave Germany as the most powerful nation in Europe, economically and militarily, even with naval restrictions. No one on their own would be able to challenge Germany post-war. Russia would take decades to recover even to their 1917 GDP, while France would be a shell. Germany would have its pick of friends in Eastern and Central even without a formal alliance. Britain would still remain formally neutral, while France has had its major ally, Russia, taken out of the equation for a while; she is not going to look for round two after the Great War. Russia too wouldn't be eager to start another war once it finally stabilizes, especially if it ends up as the USSR again. Poland is going to be too weak to be a good ally to France and will probably fall into Germany's economic orbit without the ToV limiting German strength. Czechoslovakia will be much weaker economically without the German areas, so will again be economically integrated into the expanded Germany. Hungary will need German trade and protection, so may formally ally with Germany because Hungary is hated by everyone around her and needs a place to dump its agriculture, its primary export. Romania, now properly recovered, will probably fall back into trade with Germany due to Germany's economic gravity and the lack of other trade options.
The Ottomans are done no matter what in 1918 barring a massive German victory. Not happening here, so they won't be an ally worth having postwar. They can be jettisoned without fear of the consequences. So the post war in a true 14 points scenario is thus: Grossdeutschland allied to Hungary and trading with her weak neighbors in Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Serbia, perhaps a Croatio-Slovene state, and maybe Ukraine and Belarus. France is weakened by war damage and the lack of reparations, Belgium recovers and remains allied to France/Britain, the Netherlands remains neutral, but a major German trading partner, and Russia works out its post-war situation, either remaining a corrupt and broken constitutional monarchy or becomes the USSR after a long Civil War.
This is with hindsight though, so I doubt the leaders of the time would be aware that things would play out this way. Nevertheless Germany is the dominant land power and economy in Europe for generations, though it will have economic struggles post-war, even without reparations. The trade situation was pretty bleak for Germany due to losing many of its pre-war markets during the war and the rise in tariffs to keep German trade out of post-war Allied markets. Russia going communist would be very bad for Germany again, as she was a major supplier of cheap raw materials and food to Germany. Its a mixed bag, but in time it would be beneficial to Germany, but in the short term is much much better than the ToV.
I think the CP would be better off crushing the Italian army in a 1918 offensive and rejecting frontier rectifications beyond the absolute minimum necessary to comply with "recognisable " lines of nationality, on the position that Wilson's new postwar order cannot reward aggression, and Italy's entry in the war was predatorial.
IMO, it would be unwise for the CP to ask for an armistice - this is something the Allies must request.
Deleted member 1487
Physically impossible. The Italians rallied in 1917 and checked further advances repeatedly. The A-Hs didn't have the logistic power in North Italy to affect a breakthrough, see the battle of Piave. The A-Hs were starving because they couldn't get enough supplies through the Alps from their supply centers; breaking through wasn't a viable option.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Piave_River
Randal Gray's Kaiserschlacht 1918 (osprey CS11).
At the critical moment, troops attacking towards Amiens were handicapped by a 48 hours delay in their resupply schedule, since their supply routes were overworked and only ammo had priority. It's in this context that Luddendorf refused to divert more troops towards that axis preferring to send them into lateral attacks that widened the salient. This was clearly dictated by both a need to secure the flanks, and by an inability to support more troops on the Amiens axis, since those already there were not getting enough ammo and little of anything else. You can get more info elsewhere, and I'll post the references as I reach them.
Deleted member 1487
As per OTL, but have the battle been widen south of the Oise with the 7th army attacking, rather than the 17th army toward Arras, then there would be a widening of the supply network, as some of the rail lines into the 18th army's salient were blocked by French positions south of the Oise.
But could those lines be reopened to German traffic quickly enough? German rail repair troops were already overworked. I'll look it up when I can. I'm about to start 14th of February duties now...
So a CP offensive along the Piave in 1918 was not possible, and the proof is a link to an article describing an Austrian offensive along the Piave in 1918?
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Deleted member 1487
I didn't say it was impossible to launch, rather it was impossible to succeed. The link demonstrating the horrible failure of the OTL attempt is evidence of that.
Here is German wikipedia about all the attempts to penetrate the Piave and all the failures:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piaveschlachten
The only viable option is to retreat and scorch earth the land behind you to delay any offensive into 1919 and buy time to fortify picked ground.
The link being evidence that the Austrians would fail, not evidence the Germans would.
Deleted member 1487
The Germans were part of the 1st battle of the Piave, which failed miserably.